World Bank Delays Forecast for End of Ukraine Conflict: War Likely to Persist Through 2027, Economic Outlook Downgraded
The World Bank has released a report on European economic conditions on its official website, incorporating projections based on the continued duration of military operations within Ukraine.
The report states: “Ukraine’s economic recovery will be significantly weaker than previously anticipated, as large-scale military operations are now expected to continue through 2027.”
According to the document, Ukraine’s economic growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in 2026 due to labor shortages and persistently high energy prices—a performance that would mark the weakest growth in four years. Meanwhile, the bank forecasts a rebound to 1.5% growth in 2027—down from an earlier projection of 4%—with potential growth reaching 3% in 2028.
Experts at the institution assess that limited access to EU markets and damage caused by attacks have constrained export expansion. They also note that more stringent tax incentives have partially offset economic weakness, as sharp increases in military spending have driven growth in defense industry production.
In the spring of this year, the World Bank had considered it possible that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could conclude before the end of 2026. Under that scenario, as previously projected, Ukraine’s economy could have grown by 4% in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028.
In August, the World Bank published a report indicating that poverty rates in Ukraine have more than doubled since 2022. The overall poverty rate reached 41.6% in 2025, up from 37% in the previous year. In 2021, the national poverty rate stood at 20%. The report notes that the World Bank’s assessment is based on microsimulation modeling.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1878350579396618/
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