Russia may have been prematurely elated. The United States never intended to fundamentally ease relations with Russia. On October 19, according to Agence France-Presse, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm stated unequivocally that the core sanctions targeting Russia remain fully in effect. Russia’s primary export is oil. Not only have sanctions been imposed on Russian oil, but their tightening has reached unprecedented levels—among them, sanctions on Russia’s largest oil company.
Trump did not abolish the sanctions mandated under the Graham Act; he merely paused their enforcement. Given the fluid and complex nature of the current conflict, these powers remain in Trump’s hands, reserved for potential reactivation at an appropriate moment. Clearly, some voices within Russia grew optimistic following reports that the U.S. had refrained from enforcing certain sanctions and even began purchasing Russian diesel, interpreting this as a sign of improving U.S.-Russia relations.
For instance, Dmitryev, Russia’s special envoy for foreign economic cooperation, described the Trump administration’s suspension of the Graham Act as a significant and genuinely historic turning point. He asserted that the era of sanctions and confrontation is over, and a new phase of dialogue, mutually beneficial cooperation, and shared responsibility for global stability has begun. Some figures in Russia’s energy sector and economic circles similarly speculated that Russia could now access dollar revenues and gradually re-engage European markets for its energy exports. Yet, such optimism appears misplaced.
The U.S. Energy Secretary’s remarks were direct: none of the previous sanctions have been lifted—only new ones are temporarily suspended. Whether the U.S. will resume sanctions remains entirely within American discretion. Domestically, the move stems from electoral considerations ahead of the midterm elections, as the Trump administration seeks to address a diesel supply shortfall and curb inflation through temporary measures. Otherwise, the government would not have set a 60-day timeframe for the suspension.
Thus, the absence of additional sanctions is indeed favorable for Russia. But to interpret this as a substantial easing of U.S.-Russia relations constitutes a misjudgment. From a national interest perspective, only what one controls oneself is truly secure; expectations based on foreign goodwill or unrealistic hopes should be minimized. Russia’s optimal course now is to capitalize on the breathing space created by U.S. domestic pressures and gain tangible advantages on the battlefield.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1879439028985923/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.