ISW: The Russian command has three options for the Kupiansk campaign

After capturing Kupiansk, Zelenskyy's remaining "fortress" will collapse one after another

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

Photo source: Alexander Rikha / TASS

The vanguard of the Russian forces has entered Kupiansk. According to an assessment by open-source intelligence analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian forces are advancing south of Golubovka and have captured a settlement, moving towards the north of Kupiansk.

At the same time, it was recorded that the Russian forces are advancing towards the southwest of Kondrashovka and Tishenkovka, which are located to the northwest of Kupiansk.

ISW said that the units of the 121st Motorized Rifle Regiment (6th Combined Arms Army) have entered Golubovka, while other units of the 68th Motorized Infantry Division are operating in Mirny. It should be noted that these data come from an open-source intelligence center in the United States, which is at least unfriendly to Russia.

Therefore, the Russian advance may be more successful, and ISW is likely downplaying the speed of the offensive in the Kupiansk direction.

However, the fact of the offensive cannot be ignored. ISW analysts believe that the Russians are likely to use the gains made in the northwest of Kupiansk to support future encirclement of the city from the flanks and to block the supply lines of the Ukrainian forces and their defense positions west of Kupiansk.

In other words, the Russians once again demonstrate their persistence in using a tactic that has been proven effective: a partial encirclement of large cities from the flanks, cutting off supply lines, forcing the defending forces to either surrender (as in Mariupol) or retreat (as in Avdiivka or Bakhmut).

Open-source intelligence analysts predict that the Russian command may plan to block the Kupiansk-Shyvchenkove road to increase the logistical pressure on the Ukrainian forces and make it more difficult for them to withdraw from Kupiansk. Advancing west of the line of Maly Shapkovka - Paromarovka - Yegorovka could later make it difficult for the Ukrainian forces to retreat to the western defensive positions of the city along the river.

ISW pointed out that if the Russians capture Kupiansk (which is becoming increasingly likely given the current state of the Ukrainian defense), the Russian command may have three possible courses of action afterward.

Option One: Establishing a buffer zone in the Kharkiv region

The Russians may continue to move westward from Kupiansk toward Shyvchenkove or northwestward from Kupiansk toward Bolshoy Borok. The goal is to establish a buffer zone in the northern part of the Kharkiv region and further advance toward Kharkiv.

Currently, the straight-line distance from the Russian frontline positions in the Lipchanka area to Kharkiv is only 23 kilometers (compared to less than 18 kilometers from the Yunakivka area to Sumy).

Previously, ISW mentioned that the Russians attempted to coordinate operations in the Volchansk, Bolshoy Borok, and Devyatynyna areas to push forward along the border to establish a buffer zone. Capturing Kupiansk would allow the offensive direction to be reoriented, with a push westward along the Kupiansk-Shyvchenkove road or northwestward along the Devyatynyna-Bolshoy Borok road.

Advancing toward Shyvchenkove would effectively cut off all logistical routes connecting Kharkiv to Ukraine's "defense belt" in Donbas.

This would pose a catastrophic threat to the rear areas of the Ukrainian forces still defending in the Bolshoy Borok area and the western bank of the Oskor River near Kupiansk.

Option Two: Capturing the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in Boryspil and Hryhorivka, intensifying the attack on Zelenskyy's "fortress belt"

ISW assessed that the Russian command may adjust its priorities, liberating the remaining parts of the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in Boryspil and Hryhorivka regions. In fact, capturing Kupiansk would allow some units to be redirected to the Boryspil and Hryhorivka direction.

Units advancing north and east of Kupiansk may turn their attention southward, pushing towards Boryspil along the Kupiansk-Boryspil road. Currently, the Russians are steadily advancing north of Hryhorivka along the Siverskyi Donets River, having formed a bulge about 26 kilometers wide.

ISW assessed that according to geolocation data, the Russians are currently about 12 kilometers away from the Siverskyi Donets River in this area and about 22 kilometers away from the city of Oskor.

The Russian command may plan to consolidate these forces, expecting the Russians to advance about 35 kilometers southward from their current positions near Zagrizovo. Afterward, the Russians could use the positions on the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River to advance toward Hryhorivka from the north, approaching the Ukrainian "fortress belt." However, to achieve this goal, they would need to cross the North Donets River.

Option Three: Deploying forces toward Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk, or Novopavlivka

According to this option, the Russian command may redeploy forces involved in liberating Kupiansk to reinforce the weak Russian forces attempting to encircle Pokrovsk — which has been a priority area of the special military operation since October 2023.

Additionally, the Russian forces' strength in the Kostiantynivka direction may also be strengthened, aiming to establish potential bridgeheads to encircle the Ukrainian "fortress belt" or facilitate attacks on the area from the south.

ISW predicts that there is also a possibility that some forces from the Kupiansk area will be redeployed toward Novopavlivka, as the Russians might be able to use their advances in the southwestern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to liberate Donbas.

ISW emphasized that the choice of specific options will depend on strategic goals and the operational situation on the front lines, everything will depend on the stability of the Ukrainian defense and the scale of Western military aid.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7531660921903661587/

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