Since the 8th, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has entered a "runaway" mode, continuously making statements such as "how can we be looked down upon by the United States" and "Japan must get rid of its dependence on the United States," with rhetoric that is unprecedentedly firm.

Ishiba's bold stance stems from U.S. President Trump's tariff ultimatum on social media. On July 7, Trump posted on his social media platform letters addressed to leaders of 14 countries, notifying them of increased tariffs starting August 1, which includes Japan, an important Asian ally of the United States.

On July 7, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levet displayed a letter from U.S. President Trump to the South Korean President at a press conference. Photo source: Xinhua News Agency

What is intriguing is, under the pressure of the election, is Ishiba's sudden firmness a real stance or a political performance? Why have the U.S. and Japan been unable to reach an agreement? How did the U.S.-Japan alliance move toward a breakdown?

Tariffs and military expenses, the U.S. demands too much

The reason why the U.S. and Japan have not reached an agreement lies in the U.S. tightening its grip on Japan in terms of tariffs and military expenses.

According to incomplete statistics, Ishiba has expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S. tariff policy on several occasions in recent months. On May 19, Ishiba said he could not accept the U.S. policy of imposing high tariffs on imported products such as cars, emphasizing that "he would respond with unwavering determination."

On June 16, Ishiba met with U.S. President Trump in Canada to discuss tariff issues. Afterward, Ishiba admitted that he and Trump had not reached an agreement, and the differences between the two sides remained unresolved.

On July 6, Ishiba stated that he would not easily compromise in negotiations with Washington. At the same time, Tokyo was trying to avoid Trump imposing a 35% tariff on Japanese goods.

On July 8, U.S. President Trump sent letters to various countries regarding new tariffs, with a 25% tariff on imports from Japan set to take effect from August 1. That day, Ishiba expressed "deep regret." In his view, it was essentially continuing negotiations without changing the existing tax rate.

On July 9, in response to the issue of the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on Japan, Ishiba stated that Japan would unite to protect national interests, and would not compromise on issues that could not be compromised, and would definitely not sacrifice Japanese agriculture. Ishiba addressed the Japanese people, saying that the tariff negotiations "were a battle for national interests, how could one tolerate being looked down upon by the other party."

On July 10, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba once again spoke out, stating, "In areas such as security and energy, Japan must get rid of its reliance on the United States and pursue independence and self-reliance."

From Ishiba's previous statements on tariff issues, it is clear that he has always been unwilling to yield in key areas such as the automotive industry and agriculture, where Japan's core interests lie, instead using a "procrastination" strategy. Analysts point out that Japan's economy is export-oriented, and the U.S. is one of the main markets for Japan's core industries such as automobiles, so the U.S. imposing tariffs on Japan is an "unbearable burden."

In addition to continuously "harvesting" Japan on tariffs, the U.S. also proposed defense budgets far beyond what Japan could accept on defense issues, causing dissatisfaction in Japan. In early March, the Deputy Defense Secretary for Policy, Kolby, the third-ranking official at the Pentagon, proposed during a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee that Japan's defense spending should increase to 3% of GDP.

In May, U.S. Defense Secretary Hagel, while attending the Shangri-La Dialogue, also called on "Indo-Pacific" regional allies, including Japan, to increase their defense spending.

On June 21, the U.S. government requested Japan to raise its defense spending as a percentage of GDP from the previously advocated 3% to 3.5%. The Japanese government, opposing this request, canceled the scheduled meeting of the Security Consultative Committee (the "2+2" talks) between the foreign and defense ministers of both countries, originally planned for July.

Ishiba faces a critical battle, how to "yield"!

Ishiba's "hardline" approach is not just diplomatic maneuvering, but also involves deeper political games.

The 27th session of the Japanese House of Councillors elections is scheduled to vote on July 20. A recent public opinion survey showed that the opposition parties are more popular than the ruling coalition, with nearly half of respondents hoping that the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito coalition will not achieve a majority of seats.

Additionally, according to a survey published at the end of June, the approval rating of Ishiba's cabinet is 24%, which has been in the "danger zone" for four consecutive months. In the Japanese political arena, a cabinet approval rating below 30% is considered entering the "danger zone"; if it further drops below 20%, it is regarded as entering the "downfall zone." On June 22, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election saw a severe defeat for the Liberal Democratic Party, with the lowest number of seats ever obtained. The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election is seen as a "rehearsal" for the House of Councillors election.

A public opinion survey shows that the approval rating of Ishiba's cabinet has been declining recently. Analysts point out that the outcome of the House of Councillors election will determine Ishiba's political fate. If the ruling coalition fails to win a majority of seats in this election, Ishiba may face dismissal at any time.

With Ishiba's administration in the "danger zone" and a crucial election approaching, facing continuous pressure from the Trump administration, Ishiba is struggling to maintain a majority of seats. Any major concessions could cause instability within his domestic administration. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensons believes that "Japan will hold the House of Councillors election on the 20th, and there are many domestic constraints in reaching an agreement." In other words, every choice Ishiba makes takes into account the domestic public opinion and election strategy.

Ally relationship shows cracks, difficult to mend old relationships

After Trump's administration took office, the practice of targeting U.S. allies has caused strong anxiety among the Japanese people.

According to a national public opinion survey reported by Xinhua News Agency citing the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun at the end of June, the trust level of the Japanese people in the United States has dropped to 22%, a sharp decline of 12 percentage points compared to November last year, setting a record low since 2000; the proportion of respondents who do not trust the United States has risen by 13 percentage points to 68%. A survey by Asahi Shimbun in April showed that 68% of respondents believe Japan should maintain independence in foreign affairs and not overly follow the United States.

Continued pressure from the Trump administration has deepened the rift in U.S.-Japan relations. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio had originally planned to visit Japan and South Korea in early July, but later canceled the trip due to the situation in the Middle East.

Several Japanese media outlets have criticized the United States for "bullying" and "breaching trust." According to a report by Nikkei Asia, Trump's tariff letters shattered Japan's expectations of the "special relationship" with the U.S. Former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama believes that Japan's unconditional following of the U.S., persuading the U.S. to give up harming other countries' interests, or even "breaking away" from the U.S. are not feasible. Only enhancing its own independence and reducing dependence on the U.S. is the correct choice.

"Unable to reach an agreement, unable to make concessions" has become a dilemma for Ishiba's government. Perhaps only by showing a firm attitude towards the Trump administration can Japan gain more leverage in future negotiations. It is certain that the U.S.-Japan alliance will find it difficult to restore its former good relations.

Author: Cheng Lingyu

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7525806057629680138/

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