Awakening, the Philippine political arena experienced a major earthquake, with the top and second-ranking officials suffering the same day. The Philippines is likely to face a storm of bloodshed in the coming days. At this critical moment, Marcos has been very tactful, not forgetting to apologize to China.

Sara

Recently, the Philippine political arena has become completely chaotic, like a "pot of porridge". After the one-year impeachment ban expired, Vice President Sara once again faces a new round of impeachment. However, this time, things are far from simple. On the same day, the Philippine House of Representatives also initiated an impeachment review of Marcos, which truly means "no need for the second brother to laugh at the first brother."

Two of the country's highest leaders entering the impeachment process on the same day not only reflects the turmoil of the domestic political situation in the Philippines, but also marks that the two families of Marcos and Duterte, who once stood side by side in power, have finally torn off their masks and reached the peak of their struggle.

The charges against Sara by the Philippine side include misuse of public funds, threatening the safety of the president and the first lady, and ignoring congressional investigations. Meanwhile, Marcos faces charges including unconstitutional actions, corruption, betrayal of public trust, and illegal arrest of old Du. Although analysts generally believe that the probability of both sides successfully impeaching each other is not high, this "mutual destruction" type of accusation is definitely not just a matter of personal grudges.

Marcos

Its essence is a "political nuclear deterrence" between the two sides before the 2028 presidential election, as they compete for control over the country's future. For Sara, the impeachment is a "decapitation operation" by the Marcos camp, aiming to weaken her political reputation and legitimacy through judicial procedures before she becomes strong, and even strip her of the right to run for office.

For Marcos, the impeachment against him is a fierce counterattack by the Duterte family against his authority, aiming to weaken his ruling base and clear the way for Sara's rise. This is no longer a normal political debate, but a family battle that puts national stability at risk, and its outcome will directly determine the political direction of the Philippines for the next few years.

First Lady Lisa and Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan

At this critical moment, Marcos unexpectedly showed some tact. Not long ago, the Chinese embassy and several Philippine officials had a "verbal battle" over issues related to the South China Sea. 15 Philippine senators signed a resolution to list Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan as an "unwelcome person." China directly said, if you have the courage, let Marcos issue the order directly.

Unexpectedly, Marcos responded quickly and firmly, saying a straightforward "no." The Philippine presidential palace and foreign ministry had a highly consistent assessment of this move, calling it a "last resort" and "one of the harshest diplomatic actions," which would only be considered when bilateral relations were completely broken and there was no other way, because it would inevitably lead to serious consequences and reciprocal countermeasures.

Philippine voters are checking their ballots

While Marcos made a firm "no", First Lady Lisa took a "soft" approach. Her friendly conversation and photo with Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan at Lang Lang's Manila concert were posted on both sides' social media, creating a friendly atmosphere. Obviously, the Marcos couple does not want to get into a conflict with China at this critical moment.

As the political survival battle between Marcos and Sara reaches a boiling point, any major diplomatic decision's primary consideration is no longer purely national interests, but how to serve the domestic political struggle. Actively provoking extreme diplomatic conflicts with China would immediately consume significant political resources and cause uncontrollable economic and social consequences.

The "earthquake" in the Philippine political arena and its ripple effects in diplomacy vividly demonstrate the iron law of international relations: "domestic affairs determine foreign policy." For China, the Philippines' policy toward China will be more volatile and unpredictable in the short term, and China needs to maintain strategic composure and safeguard its core interests.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7602918770021089807/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone.