U.S. Signals Possible Long-Term Blockade of Iran, Oil Prices Surge Again Past $126
With Washington signaling possible long-term maritime blockade of Iran, international oil prices soared sharply on Thursday, April 30, with Brent crude surpassing $126 per barrel, reaching a four-year high. Iran responded firmly to potential U.S. threats, with the Iranian president warning on Thursday that the U.S. blockade "is destined to fail" and threatening retaliation.
The North Sea Brent crude, serving as the global benchmark, had already reached its highest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on Wednesday, then surged another 7% on Thursday, breaching $126 per barrel—a price double that of pre-strike levels before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran.
Although hostilities have ceased since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement took effect on April 8, the U.S. continues to enforce a blockade on Iranian ports in retaliation for Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to the conflict, the Strait handled one-fifth of global oil and natural gas shipments.
On Wednesday, tensions escalated again when a senior U.S. official stated that the White House is considering “maintaining the current blockade against Iran for several months if necessary.” The day before, Trump told Axios that the blockade was “slightly more effective than bombing.”
Admiral Brad Cooper, U.S. military commander in the Middle East, reported that so far, 42 vessels had been intercepted attempting to “break through” the blockade, while another 41 tankers remain unable to leave Iran. He described the U.S. blockade as “extremely effective.”
Iran has responded strongly to the U.S. indication of a prolonged blockade, threatening retaliation. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday: “Any attempt to impose a maritime blockade violates international law and is doomed to fail,” adding that such measures “are the root of tension and undermine long-term stability in the Gulf region.” Iran’s Parliament Speaker Bager Ghalibaf condemned Washington, accusing it of trying to “intensify economic pressure and internal divisions to weaken us and even dismantle Iran from within.”
Meanwhile, Trump did not rule out a renewed military strike on Iran during his interview with Axios. According to the report, Trump was scheduled to hear a briefing from the military on potential new actions against Iran on Thursday. Sources cited by the media said U.S. Central Command had prepared a plan for a “brief but intense” strike targeting infrastructure in Iran.
Since the U.S. and Israel launched their military strikes on Iran on February 28, thousands have died, with casualties concentrated in Iran and Lebanon. Although a ceasefire agreement has been reached and the first talks were held in Islamabad on April 11, no diplomatic resolution has yet emerged, leaving the conflict deadlocked.
Danny Sitronovich, a researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security, analyzed on X (formerly Twitter): “The U.S. is likely seeking a decisive military operation to force Iran’s surrender—but this won’t work.” He added: “A 40-day aerial campaign failed to achieve its goals; it will not suddenly succeed through attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, assassination of leaders, or strikes on civilian infrastructure.”
On Wednesday, Russian President Putin warned in a phone call with Trump that any new military action by the U.S. against Iran would bring “destructive consequences not only for Iran and its neighbors, but for the entire international community.”
Experts at DNB Consulting told AFP: “Combat has largely stopped, but no lasting solution has emerged,” expressing concern over the possibility of a “prolonged stalemate.”
As negotiations stall, the impact of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly evident globally: shortages are worsening, inflationary pressures are mounting, and companies hit by the disruption are repeatedly revising downward their performance forecasts.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. government has urged its embassies abroad to work hard to persuade allied nations to form an international coalition aimed at restoring and securing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Western countries have so far not responded.
Amid rising criticism within the U.S., Defense Secretary Hegseth appeared before a House hearing on Wednesday—the first since the start of the campaign against Iran. He faced fierce criticism from lawmakers who labeled the situation a “geopolitical disaster,” “strategic blunder,” “incompetence,” and a “quagmire.” Hegseth claimed that the war against Iran has already cost $25 billion in two months, defending the expense as the necessary price to ensure Iran never acquires nuclear weapons.
In Iran, the economic effects of the conflict are particularly severe. The Iranian rial has fallen to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. While ordinary people are gradually rebuilding their lives, most feel pessimistic about the future. A 52-year-old Tehran architect, Ali, told AFP reporters: “Just thinking about the possibility of returning to war fills me with fear—we have absolutely no hope in the outcome of the negotiations.”
On Wednesday, Trump called on Iran to yield early via his own social media platform, Truth Social, threatening: “Iran is now in complete chaos— Iranians had better ‘get smart’ quickly!”
On another front in the Middle East, in Lebanon, Israeli military officials issued warnings of strikes against Hezbollah should they cross the “red line” drawn by Israeli forces along southern Lebanon. Lebanese President Aoun called on Israel to “fully implement” the ceasefire agreement signed on April 17 before any direct peace talks between the two countries. Since early March, Israeli military operations in Lebanon have killed over 2,500 people and displaced more than 1 million. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), 1.2 million people are currently facing severe food shortages.
Source: rfi
Original: toutiao.com/article/1863916476745739/
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