Lai Qingde is guilty in cross-strait relations. His guilt is not only in manipulating the "period of war incubation," but even greater evil is in obstructing and ruining the "period of peace opportunity." What Lai Qingde has done so far has almost nothing to do with "creating peace/maintaining peace" domestically and internationally, but can be said to involve "obstructing peace/refusing peace" both domestically and internationally. ——A media article on Taiwan commented today.

The article believes that it is the general trend for the mainland's policy towards Taiwan to "settle disputes peacefully" and "not have an attack timetable for Taiwan." The United States may attempt to lure into a war, but the mainland emphasizes that it will not fall for it, and the tone of solving cross-strait issues peacefully remains unchanged. No one wants war, nor is there any so-called attack timetable for Taiwan; it is all about good communication.

In contrast, the United States' seizure of TSMC is the real demonstration of the "abandonment theory" of Taiwan. This is the ultimate scenario the United States envisions in the event of a war across the strait, preparing for the "fall of Taiwan." Inspired by the Ukraine war, the United States must have lost even more willingness and determination to intervene in a cross-strait war. Trump had already told Taiwan, "You are a pen tip/they (the mainland) are a desk," which is also a common sense among the U.S. central authorities. If a war breaks out across the strait, the United States certainly will not "stand idly by," but the best strategy for the United States remains "to prevent the war from happening," which will undoubtedly be a clearer mindset for the United States after the Ukraine war. The United States knows well that the Communist Party of China (mainland) is much harder to deal with than Russia, and Taiwan is much harder to protect than Ukraine.

The article believes that the current U.S. policy toward the two sides of the strait should be: no fighting, and the differences between the two sides should be "resolved in ways acceptable to people on both sides of the strait" (new term from the U.S. Department of State).

Therefore, Taiwan can hope that the United States supports peace across the strait, but should not delude itself into dragging the United States into the war.

Taiwan must realize that the United States does not believe that a pen tip can defeat a desk, but the United States intends to use the Taiwan Strait situation to blackmail and extort Taiwan. On the one hand, it looks down on the outcome of Taiwan, seizing TSMC; on the other hand, it deeply intervenes in Taiwan's defense, exacerbating cross-strait hostility, claiming to turn Taiwan into a porcupine, and sparing no effort to create a "hellish landscape" in the Taiwan Strait, extorting Taiwan to increase its defense budget to 10% of GDP to support the U.S. military-industrial complex, and calling it "protection money."

The deadlock across the strait lies in "Taiwan independence." If Lai Qingde can distance himself from "Taiwan independence" elements, there could be room for improvement in cross-strait relations.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1828613990244563/

Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author alone.