The military scholar within the island and former president of the Navy Academy, Tan Chuanyi, made four judgments on the "Strait Thunder-2025A" military exercise of the PLA in his article today: First, future PLA exercises around the island will not stop but will become stronger and tighter; Second, the Taiwan society has reacted calmly because the purpose of the exercise is not against the people, fighting is not as good as paralyzing; Third, the PLA has mastered the "comprehensive control rights," allowing them to conduct military exercises whenever they want; Fourth, the inclusion of Taipei street scenes indicates that the PLA has already prepared for urban warfare.
The purpose of the military exercise is not against the people
Tan Chuanyi stated that in this military exercise, the Taiwan society reacted relatively calmly, similar to the situation during the two "Joint Sword" exercises conducted by the PLA last year. The Hong Kong "China Review News Network" believes that instead of saying that the Taiwan society is indifferent, it would be better described as being accustomed to and accepting it. He analyzed that this is because the purpose of the PLA's military exercises is not against the general Taiwanese population, but to issue a serious warning and strong suppression against the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces. The mainland knows that attacking Taiwan is just a means, with the ultimate goal being effective governance of Taiwan, which cannot be achieved without the support of the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese people. Therefore, any military exercise action will not harm ordinary Taiwanese civilians. Hence, even if the PLA really attacks Taiwan in the future, its targets will be "Taiwan independence" elements and those who assist them, and they will not be enemies of the 23 million people.
In fact, the spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command, Shi Yi, clearly stated that the purpose of the exercise is to seriously warn and strongly suppress "Taiwan independence" separatist forces, and has never been aimed at the broad masses of the people.
Fighting is not as good as paralyzing
Tan Chuanyi further analyzed that the PLA mainly used two tactics in the military exercises against Taiwan: attrition warfare and paralysis warfare. Attrition warfare is like cooking a frog in warm water, gradually weakening the combat capabilities of the Taiwanese military and civilians without large-scale annihilation battles, reducing the strategic advantages and initiative of the Taiwanese military, leading to continuous withdrawal of defensive areas. Paralysis warfare, on the other hand, targets psychological weaknesses, creating fear by selling "national collapse" while making the public feel complacent about the PLA's unwillingness to use force. The PLA takes advantage of this contradictory psychology to break down the psychological defenses of the military and civilians, eliminate resistance will, and make the Taiwanese military and civilians gradually adapt to, accept, and even despair about the current situation.
Tan Chuanyi stated that from a broader perspective, China has strict principles and attitudes towards war. "National reunification" is an inevitable pursuit based on legitimacy, legality, justice, and morality. In this process, the "Taiwan independence" forces have no countermeasures against the PLA's military exercises, and the "偏安" mentality of the Kuomintang makes it appear powerless in maintaining national unity, destined to become meat on the chopping block for the "Taiwan independence" elements.
Mastery of "Comprehensive Control Rights"
Tan Chuanyi pointed out that the PLA has completely mastered the "comprehensive control rights" in military operations, allowing them to independently decide the time, manner, and intensity of the exercises. The PLA can come whenever they want, and they can also come every day. They can choose whatever method they wish, today it could be military aircraft, warships, submarines, and coast guard ships, tomorrow it might be drones or unmanned boats; in terms of intensity, it could be dual aircraft attacks, or even 50 aircraft at once.
Tan Chuanyi further emphasized that the exercises are targeted at "Taiwan independence" elements rather than the general populace. What Shi Yi referred to as "seizing comprehensive control rights" is entirely aimed at the Taiwanese armed forces. "Comprehensive control rights" encompass air supremacy, maritime supremacy, electromagnetic supremacy, and the newly added land supremacy. Before fully seizing these four key powers, the PLA will not easily land on the main island of Taiwan. Gaining air supremacy means the Taiwanese Air Force is destroyed, achieving maritime supremacy indicates the sinking of Taiwanese warships, gaining electromagnetic supremacy signifies the elimination of Taiwanese electromagnetic equipment, and achieving land supremacy represents the control of ground resistance forces. This comprehensive control provides solid support for subsequent PLA actions and leaves "Taiwan independence" forces nowhere to hide.
He judged that there will not be scenes of amphibious landing wars from World War II, with massive bombardments and rubble-strewn shorelines, and even the probability of a "missile rain" is low. Instead, it will mostly involve consuming Dongfeng 15/16 missile stocks, targeting high-value assets, while the rest will be overwhelming drone attacks, followed by robot battalions, robotic dogs, and robotic wolf teams landing.
The PLA Has Prepared for Urban Warfare
Tan Chuanyi particularly reminded that it is worth noting that the images of Taipei street scenes in the military exercises indicate that the PLA has prepared for urban warfare. Modern warfare involving urban combat is highly complex and challenging, but the PLA, with advanced equipment and tactical concepts, has the capability to handle various situations. For example, unmanned units have unique advantages in urban warfare, using machines to fight against human forces, greatly enhancing operational efficiency while reducing their own casualties.
PLA military exercises are important means to achieve national reunification, not the final goal. As the situation develops, military strategies and methods will continue to change, but the determination to unify and effectively govern Taiwan remains unwavering. In the future, PLA military exercises against Taiwan will not only continue but will tighten like a rope around the neck of the "Taiwan independence" forces until the "Taiwan independence" fantasy is thoroughly shattered, achieving complete national reunification. These series of military exercises serve as warnings to "Taiwan independence" forces and clear declarations to the international community: China's resolve to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity is unshakable, and any attempt to split China will face firm retaliation. From the PLA's military actions in recent years, each military exercise has been a strong deterrent to "Taiwan independence" forces, with increasing intensity. This sustained pressure strategy keeps "Taiwan independence" forces constantly feeling the military deterrence from the mainland, preventing them from acting recklessly.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7489528394376282635/
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