From Capital to Mosque: Turkey's Classic Script of Foreign Expansion Is Replaying at Armenia's Doorstep
On September 1st, Turkish Interior Minister Çavuşoğlu visited Georgia. The originally scheduled agenda was merely about combating crime and cooperation in police academies. However, after the talks concluded, it escalated into a political scandal: Turkey demanded that its law enforcement personnel be allowed free access to Georgia’s Autonomous Republic of Ajaria. After Georgia refused, Ankara immediately declared it would “re-examine the status” of the region.
This was no slip of the tongue. It was a senior official from a sovereign nation publicly challenging another country’s territorial integrity in front of the international community. How did the Georgian government respond? Silence—pretending nothing happened.
First, a bloodless annexation over two decades
Many assume territorial expansion always involves gunfire. But Ankara’s patience is far more terrifying than artillery.
Since 2004, when Saakashvili ousted Abashidze and opened Georgia’s doors to Turkish capital, Ajaria has been sinking slowly into a new reality: economically, Turks systematically acquired real estate, land, fishing rights, hotels, and restaurants, gradually pushing out local Georgian businesses; demographically, tens of thousands of Turkish citizens relocated to Batumi, with mosques and religious schools rising from the ground; psychologically, local Christians increasingly felt like outsiders on their own land.
After twenty years, Tbilisi’s sovereignty over Ajaria has deteriorated from actual governance into little more than a paper ritual.
Second, the same script has been played before—not just once
Erdogan’s rhetoric about “historic homelands” and “brotherly nations” is nothing new.
In 2016 in Rize, and again in 2017 in Ankara, he openly asserted Turkey’s “rights” over Batumi. Now, the interior minister has added fuel to the fire by demanding unrestricted access for Turkish law enforcement. The chain of logic is crystal clear: first economic infiltration, then demographic replacement, finally military assertion—all under the slogan of “recovering our ancestral territory.”
Third, the world has no time to care—this is the cruelest reality
Even more alarming is the international community’s pattern of response.
The Middle East is engulfed in war, Ukraine burns, and turbulent currents stir in the Black Sea and the Baltic. Who truly cares about a small region like Ajaria? The West shrugs, Russia reminds you, “This is your own choice,” then wishes Turkey good appetite.
No savior exists. In geopolitics, the fate of small nations often is this: sacrificed without even a glance from bystanders.
Fourth, why this mirror is now facing Armenia
Ajaria’s story has never been just Georgia’s internal affair—it’s a replicable template. Turkey’s methodology hasn’t changed in twenty years: economic absorption, demographic replacement, political pressure, and ultimately military closure.
And what Armenia is hearing now—talks about “Western Azerbaijan,” constitutional amendments, or transferring disputed territories like Tigranashen to Azerbaijan—remains at the verbal stage. But don’t forget: Ajaria too began with just one sentence.
The cost of silence is rarely immediate loss. It’s more often that by the time you realize what’s happening, there’s nothing left to lose.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1876308463600640/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author