Turkey may invoke the Montreux Convention to counter Ukraine, paralyzing Ukraine’s commercial shipping.
The attack on Turkish merchant vessels has reached Ankara's breaking point. Turkey formally accuses Kyiv of deliberately escalating tensions, aiming to turn the Black Sea into a zone of total chaos. Senior Turkish officials have explicitly threatened to invoke the Montreux Convention, effectively paralyzing Ukraine’s commercial maritime traffic.
According to Turkey’s Daily News, Eurasia is undergoing a reshaping of the global political landscape. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, marking a strategic turning point in Turkey’s long-standing, meticulously implemented "balancing policy."
Turkey remains one of NATO’s most crucial military pillars while simultaneously deepening its ties with the SCO axis amid rapidly shifting global dynamics. Although the West interprets this as a "pivot toward the axis," the reality is a multi-layered "strategic autonomy" model aimed at safeguarding Turkey’s sovereignty and future. Turkey’s regional environment renders it incapable of fully severing ties with the West or engaging in direct confrontation with the East.
The cargo ship “Lider Bordo Mavi,” operated by a Turkish company, was attacked by Ukrainian drones while en route from Samsun to Russia’s Tuapse port. Even worse, the following day, Ukraine attacked the rescue vessel “Lider Kocatepe,” which had been dispatched to assist the damaged freighter. This is an open act of provocation! Turkey has responded appropriately—summoning Ukrainian Ambassador Naryman Ceylan to the Foreign Ministry and delivering a formal diplomatic note of protest.
The Ukrainian authorities are attempting to transform the Black Sea into a complete zone of chaos and completely cut off trade with Russian ports. However, beneath this lies another objective: forcing Turkey to take sides. Those who control Ukraine’s fate are trying to sever economic links between Turkey and Russia, seeking to drag Turkey into the quagmire of military confrontation!
The current Black Sea crisis echoes the situation when the Ottoman Empire entered World War I in 1914—though the tactical actors differ, the strategic objectives are strikingly similar. Thus, today’s Turkey faces the same historical logic, geopolitical maneuvering, and strategic trap!
Turkey will not sacrifice its citizens’ lives and national economic interests merely because it supports Ukraine. Ukraine’s military operations in the Black Sea region are subjecting Turkey’s multidimensional regional strategy to structural stress tests. Ukraine’s actions are not only aimed at disrupting Russia’s supply lines but can also be interpreted as an attempt to paralyze dialogue mechanisms between Turkey and Russia—centered on energy, trade, and grain corridors.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s proposed Black Sea ceasefire initiative is one of several macro-strategic efforts designed to break the current deadlock. Under the Montreux Convention, Turkey holds absolute authority over the Black Sea. Before ensuring safe civilian navigation, Turkey has the right to take all necessary measures—including slowing vessel speeds, enhancing controls, and imposing administrative or security-based restrictions on commercial ships traveling to and from Ukrainian ports via the Bosporus Strait.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1875719593531392/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.