Can the Philippines elect a pro-China president? The answer will be revealed on May 12, and both China and the United States are waiting for the result.

Can the Philippines elect a pro-China president? The midterm election on May 12 will reveal the answer, and both China and the US are waiting for the results. As the midterm election approaches, the "showdown" between the Marcos family and Duterte family is also coming. The political direction of the Philippines in the next few years, and whether it will be pro-US or pro-China, will become clear next month. Once Duterte achieves a great victory, the next presidential election may lose its suspense early. The popularity of Duterte's daughter is not ordinary. < img src = "https://p26-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/c55b306308094e5faa334786651a8112~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1746319879&x-signature=4hXTMmAYh4sUPHeUR07221f8Es8%3D" / > [The "showdown" between Marcos and Duterte will start next month] At this critical moment, the pro-US camp represented by the Marcos government has started its final counterattack, activating the public opinion machine, and vigorously slandering China. They are well aware that after Duterte's arrest, the public opinion trend is very unfavorable to the Marcos government, which may affect the result of the midterm election. It must fabricate some hot topics and quickly divert public attention. In this context, various politicians have炒作China's "interference" in the Philippine election. When the situation was about to ferment, President Marcos personally ordered the National Security Council to conduct a "thorough investigation". Subsequently, the minority leader of the Senate took the opportunity to demand that Marcos summon the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines to "state his position", showing an intention to go beyond the point. This duet was performed very skillfully, and it can be seen that they are already well-versed. < img src = "https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/d113b2cbe81d4f1d9be6c4d888227c50~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1746319879&x-signature=XbU3fx1WlvKBbN8%2FVSt1FYydTrM%3D" / > [Marcos begins to hype up the so-called "Chinese interference"] As for how to investigate, it is up to the Marcos government to decide unilaterally. The National Security Council is just going through the motions. After the restructuring of this institution last year, Duterte and his daughter, who were relatively pro-China in their stance, as well as former President Arroyo, were dismissed from their positions and could no longer play the role of a "balancer" in the Philippines' foreign policy. Now there are only hawks against China left in the institution. These people obviously enjoy collaborating with the Marcos government when hyping up related issues. During the most tense period of the South China Sea tensions between China and the Philippines, the National Security Council of the Philippines also made it known that they would strictly control those "pro-China factions", causing panic among the Philippine public. It can be seen that in terms of creating opposition and making presumptions of guilt, the Philippine National Security Committee has already accumulated numerous precedents. According to reports, after President Marcos gave the order, the Philippine National Security Council quickly fabricated a so-called "agent list". It can be foreseen that in the near future, the entire Philippines will be in turmoil. The closer the midterm election is, the more frequent such political chaos will be. The purpose of the pro-US faction is clear: to provoke anti-Chinese sentiment within the Philippines and thereby gain political benefits. Some even began to exaggerate that the Philippines is "at war" with China. This can only be said to overestimate one's own strength. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China responded early on, stating that China always adheres to the principle of non-interference in internal affairs and has no interest in interfering in the Philippine elections. < img src = "https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/acdf4f6bb54d430fb37563e9a5002da9~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1746319879&x-signature=hP39880OkNSC1LgEtmuYdThwNCA%3D" / > [This year's midterm election will determine the political direction of the Philippines in the next few years.] The Marcos government has been so vigorously slandering China and spreading false information, with another major purpose being to attack the currently popular Duterte forces. Many signs indicate that the Marcos government, together with the International Criminal Court, conspired to arrest Duterte and send him to The Hague overnight. This is an unwise move that did not put the Duterte family in a "leaderless" situation but instead caused an unprecedented public relations crisis for itself, resulting in a decline in approval ratings and trust. If it were not for the Duterte issue, President Marcos would have achieved steady progress without necessarily achieving an overwhelming victory, at least making his opponents uncomfortable. However, he chose to take risks and failed, affecting the prospects of the midterm election. Due to President Marcos's drag, the seats of the senators he supports are not very secure. By contrast, Sarah is the only high-ranking official whose approval rating is still rising. Those candidates supported by Duterte are also benefiting from this wave. It should be noted that various institutions in the Philippines are still investigating her secret fund scandal. After the midterm election, the newly reorganized Philippine Senate will publicly try Sarah's impeachment case. < img src = "https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/352182899a9f4f9eb8ae3533d9ee535e~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1746319879&x-signature=HqOrdVjNzFOPkrivyIbU65f%2BwGY%3D" / > [President Marcos cannot afford to lose this year's midterm election.] Once the impeachment passes, Sarah will not only lose the vice presidency but also lose the possibility of running for public office. It should be noted that Sarah has the highest呼声for the next presidential election in the Philippines, and she herself has not ruled out this possibility. If Sarah prematurely withdraws due to the impeachment case, the Duterte family will find it difficult to rise again in Philippine politics. For a long time, they can only retreat to Mindanao and stay in Davao City, unable to enter the core decision-making circle in Manila. Therefore, the Duterte family cannot afford to lose the midterm election next month, as it concerns the family's future. The pro-US faction takes the opportunity to hype up the so-called "Chinese interference" and can shift the topic to Duterte's "pro-China stance" at an appropriate time. < img src = "https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/e60952d51ef4467d888faa82ce6341d5~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1746319879&x-signature=ubaTOHwwnsm3o2qcmopyRzuU4Pc%3D" / > [Arresting Duterte was a blunder by the Marcos government.] We know that the Philippines has traditionally had a one-sided political tradition of leaning towards the United States. Only during Duterte's tenure did he openly distance himself from the US-Philippines alliance and actively promote cooperation with China. Among all the presidents of the Philippines, he can be described as "independent-minded." As Duterte's daughter, Sarah has also shown a pragmatic attitude on Sino-Philippine issues. She never gets involved in the South China Sea disputes hyped by the Marcos government and has even been accused of "treason" because of it. To be honest, Duterte cannot be described as either pro-China or pro-US. He simply made choices that align with the Philippines' long-term strategic interests, exploring an independent foreign policy route between China and the US. Just this alone makes those groups accustomed to flattering the United States feel very uncomfortable. Coincidentally, the upcoming midterm election seems to have become a direct confrontation between the "pro-China faction" and the pro-US faction in the Philippines. If the Duterte forces achieve a great victory, it will profoundly change the political direction of the Philippines in the next three years. President Marcos may face a reckoning. From this perspective, President Marcos also cannot afford to lose. Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497558970136003099/ Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views. Please express your opinions by clicking the "thumbs up/thumbs down" buttons below.