Source: Global Times

An article on April 25th by The Wall Street Journal warned that as US-China trade collapses, American store shelves will soon be empty and layoffs are imminent. Torsten Slok, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, a major US asset management company, warned that "in a few weeks, American store shelves may become completely empty, and both consumers and businesses may face shortages similar to those during the pandemic."

Slok said that since China is the main supplier of many consumer goods in the US, inflation levels in the US will quickly escalate. He said that the US may lose relevant jobs and pose significant risks to the economy. "In May, we will start seeing large-scale layoffs in industries such as trucking, logistics, and retail, especially for small businesses like independently operated toy stores, hardware stores, and men's clothing stores," he added.

Regarding how tariffs will disrupt supply chains and commodity prices, executives from major US retail giants such as Target, Walmart, and Home Depot have issued stern warnings to the US government this week. (Author Quentin Webb)

An article on April 25th by National Public Radio (NPR) warned that as imports from China decrease, the US is about to face issues of commodity shortages and empty store shelves.

After the US increased tariffs on nearly all Chinese goods shipped to the US this month, American companies have been canceling shipments from China and halting new orders to Chinese manufacturers. According to data from the Port Optimizer ship tracking system, the number of cargo ships arriving at the Port of Los Angeles from China is expected to drop by 33% compared to the same period last year, ending on May 10th.

The reduction in cargo ships from China brings uncertainty to American buyers, and American retailers may not be able to buy the products they have long been accustomed to purchasing in the coming months. David French, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, said it has become a challenge for them to figure out how to order and price correctly under various uncertainties regarding tariffs. Tariffs could not only wipe out all profits earned by companies in the US but also force them to sell at a loss or raise prices to levels unacceptable to American consumers.

The National Retail Federation predicts that if the current tariff rates continue, US imports will decline by 20% in the second half of this year. French said that some of the goods most likely to disappear from American store shelves in the coming months will be low-cost footwear, apparel, toys, and electronics, whose manufacturers are mainly concentrated in China.

Craig Allen, president of the US-China Business Council, said, "Just as we faced shortages of toilet paper during the pandemic, we will begin to witness similar situations with more and more products. In a few weeks, we will start running out of these goods. If the government waits until we face shortages and hoarding before addressing the issue, it will be too late." (Author Shannon Pettipas, translated by Cui Xiaodong)

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