Recently, the U.S. "Ford" nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, accompanied by tens of thousands of troops, has arrived at Venezuela's doorstep. More worrying is that the U.S. military also dispatched B-52 bombers for patrols, and nuclear submarines have quietly lurked nearby. It's clear to everyone that the so-called "anti-drug" campaign is just a cover, and this show of force clearly indicates that they are about to take serious action.

Seeing the large-scale military deployment, Venezuelan President Maduro was desperate, sending an emergency signal to China, Russia, and Iran overnight. However, what's interesting is that after receiving the emergency message, the three countries' responses varied. Russia was the first to come forward and say "support," seemingly the most "upset," but when it comes to taking real action, it is somewhat vague; China has a clear stance but is not aggressive; Iran seems to have taken the "key script," becoming a key variable. What's behind this? We need to first figure out: what does the U.S. military really want? What is Maduro seeking as a lifeline?

To understand this chess game, we must first look at both sides' cards. The U.S. military's recent actions have long gone beyond the scope of "anti-drug," clearly targeting Maduro's government.

Trump said he wanted to "crush Latin American drug cartels," but the forces sent were like using a "big knife to kill a chicken": tens of thousands of soldiers, the most advanced "Ford" aircraft carrier strike group, F-35 fighters, even nuclear submarines were brought in. Do you need so many weapons to deal with drug gangs? More suspiciously, the U.S. military also had its personnel sign non-disclosure agreements, secretly identifying targets within Venezuela. This isn't anti-drug; it's clearly preparing for a military strike.

In short, the U.S. just doesn't like Maduro and wants to use the excuse of "anti-drug" to get him out of power and replace him with a compliant agent. After all, Venezuela is an important oil-producing country in Latin America. Controlling it can manipulate regional situations and cut off important footholds of countries like Russia in Latin America.

Looking at Maduro's "three-country emergency list": asking for what he needs directly, aiming at the core issues.

Maduro is not stupid. He knows his army's equipment is outdated and desperately needs air defense and surveillance capabilities. Therefore, his emergency messages to China, Russia, and Iran are all "targeted" requests:

To Russia: he asked Putin to repair Su-30 fighter jets, improve radar and engines, and also wanted to buy 14 sets of missiles, while asking for some money as "logistical support";

To China: he wanted to expand military cooperation and urged Chinese companies to quickly produce radar detection systems;

To Iran: he wanted drones and electronic warfare equipment, especially GPS jamming devices, and drones with a range of 1,000 kilometers. These are "asymmetric weapons" against the U.S. military.

Why did Russia act first? Saying it's urgent, but actually having difficulties

Among the three countries, Russia was the first to speak up, saying "firmly support Venezuela in defending its sovereignty" and promising to "respond to the requests of its partners." This kind of urgency looks intimidating, but upon closer examination, Moscow is "half sincere, half pretending."

Russia's relationship with Venezuela is no ordinary one. Venezuela buys Russian arms, and Russia buys Venezuelan oil. Every year, just from oil revenue, there are millions of dollars. If Maduro falls, Russia would not only lose a "hard-core ally" in Latin America but also lose a significant amount of income, and its strategic layout in the Americas would be severely damaged. This calculation doesn't make sense, so how could Russia not be worried?

But being worried or not, Russia doesn't have much strength to act. First, the treaty between Russia and Venezuela is just a "gentleman's agreement," which only mentions "strengthening defense ties," without any commitment to send troops for help. More importantly, Russia is now stuck in the Ukraine war and must prioritize resources for Ukraine, leaving no extra strength to support Venezuela in the Caribbean Sea.

Even more interestingly, the U.S. has moved 10% of its navy to the Caribbean Sea, which is actually beneficial for Russia. A former U.S. ambassador openly stated that this move has diverted the U.S.'s attention from Ukraine. For Putin, without spending much effort, the U.S. is distracted on both sides, which is already a win. So Russia's current plan is: loudly shout, provide technical support for equipment repairs, first keep Maduro from falling, while watching the U.S. be pulled in two directions. This is a win-win situation.

China's attitude: firm principles, pragmatic actions. Unlike Russia's "interest calculations," China's position has always been clear: it won't budge on principle issues and cooperates in a practical way.

China has clearly stated: opposing the use of force, opposing external interference in Venezuela's affairs, and considering the U.S. military's actions as a "serious violation of sovereignty." This isn't empty talk; it's China's consistent diplomatic principle. No matter how big or small a country is, its sovereignty cannot be bullied. If today the U.S. can arbitrarily attack Venezuela, tomorrow won't it be able to bully others? This bottom line must be upheld.

Maduro's request for China to speed up the production of radar systems aligns with China's cooperative approach. China's military cooperation with Venezuela has always focused on "defense capabilities." For example, radar can provide early warning, helping Venezuela monitor U.S. movements, which is a self-defense skill, not meant to provoke trouble. This model helps friends without taking sides, fully in line with China's principle of "non-interference in internal affairs," practical and safe.

Compared to China and Russia, Iran offers more "hardcore" items. Iranian drones have already been tested in combat in the Middle East, and drones with a range of 1,000 kilometers can target U.S. aircraft carriers, while GPS jammers can render U.S. precision-guided weapons ineffective. These are precisely the "asymmetric warfare tools" that Maduro needs most.

Moreover, Iran has always been at odds with the U.S., and helping Venezuela can both annoy the U.S. and expand its influence in Latin America. It's highly likely that Iran will genuinely put in the effort.

What will the outcome be? A "loud mouth, cautious action" tug-of-war. To summarize, it's clear: Maduro's appeal to China, Russia, and Iran is essentially playing a "multi-polar defense card," telling the U.S. "I'm not alone." But the effectiveness of this card depends entirely on the intentions of the three countries:

Iran is likely to provide "hardcore equipment," using drones to enhance Maduro's combat capabilities; China sticks to its principles and provides "defensive support," helping Maduro build a solid defense; Russia, however, is "loud in words but less in action," reaping the benefits of the U.S. being split.

Although the tension in the Caribbean is high, if the U.S. truly intends to act, it must weigh the reactions of China, Russia, and Iran; Maduro, with the support of the three countries, also has the confidence to challenge the U.S. In the end, it's not about whether it can be done, but a strategic struggle among major powers. Hegemonism tries to suppress others, while multi-polar forces are countering, which is the true reflection of the current international situation.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7568679318935601683/

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