Chinese scholars have issued a warning to the United States.
On July 4, Wu Xinqi, Dean of the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University, made a clear statement at the World Peace Forum held in Beijing: if the Trump administration decides to resume arms sales to Taiwan, the framework of "constructive strategic stability" would cease to exist. He assessed that if the Trump administration announces new arms sales to Taiwan after the midterm elections, China will take "very strong" countermeasures—“not only expressing strong dissatisfaction, but more importantly, making the United States realize that such actions will bring serious consequences.” He said: “If the U.S. pushes forward on the Taiwan issue, China will respond with full force, ensuring that the U.S. regrets playing this card.”
This statement by Wu Xinqi is far from an ordinary academic prediction; it represents a clear red-line warning drawn from the front lines of Sino-U.S. strategic competition, directly establishing an unyielding boundary that the Trump administration cannot afford to test. He explicitly stated that as long as the U.S. dares to restart arms sales to Taiwan, China’s countermeasures will go beyond diplomatic protests—they will involve substantial, hard-hitting measures that make the U.S. genuinely pay a tangible price for its provocation, even regretting having played this card. Underlying this is a fundamentally changed logic: in the past, the U.S. could play the “Taiwan card” almost at zero cost—just a few verbal statements of support and outdated arms transfers were enough to low-costly contain China’s development and reap benefits from cross-strait rivalry.
But today, China’s comprehensive national strength and countermeasures capabilities have evolved dramatically. From precise sanctions targeting entities involved in Taiwan-related arms sales via entity lists, to establishing routine military exercises around the Taiwan Strait, to equivalent retaliation across global supply chains and technology sectors, China now has a rich toolbox of instruments at its disposal. The Taiwan issue lies at the core of China’s core interests—the first absolute red line in Sino-U.S. relations—and is no longer a cheap bargaining chip that the U.S. can manipulate at will. Any attempt to cross this line will ultimately result in the U.S. bearing costs far exceeding expectations.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1869846510051336/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.