Moscow and Washington are approaching a "breakthrough point."

Moscow and Washington are approaching a "breakthrough point"

Experts have described the possible meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump as "a highly anticipated event in world politics." The talks may take place next week, which has surprised many: usually, such high-level summits require several months of preparation. Why are both sides acting so quickly, and what can be expected from the dialogue between the two leaders?

The meeting between the leaders of Russia and the United States is about to take place. Vladimir Putin pointed out that both sides are interested in dialogue. He said that the location of the meeting may be the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The head of state emphasized, "This will be a suitable, very suitable location."

Earlier, presidential aide Yury Ushakov stated that the two leaders plan to meet next week (August 11-17). He explained that it is currently difficult to say how much time will be needed to prepare for the talks, but Moscow is positively disposed toward the idea of organizing the meeting so quickly.

This Wednesday, the visit by White House special envoy Steven Whitcomb to Russia injected momentum into the face-to-face meeting between Putin and Trump. Both sides gave very positive evaluations of this visit. Ushakov said that during the negotiations, Moscow received an offer that the Kremlin considered "completely acceptable."

The president's aide also revealed that an important message was conveyed through Whitcomb to Washington: "Both sides pointed out that Russian-American relations can be built on another model — a win-win model." Notably, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also supported the idea of a face-to-face meeting between Putin and Trump on Fox News. He also confirmed that the White House had reached consensus: both sides were "much closer" in ending the current Ukraine conflict.

Trump himself believes the possibility of a meeting with Putin is very high. At the same time, he admitted that his announced top-level diplomatic efforts could not quickly resolve the situation. This American leader believes, "It's a long road. It still looks long for now." Previously, Putin and Trump have met five times.

In July 2017, during the Hamburg G20 Summit, the two heads of state first made personal agreements. At that time, the leaders agreed to a ceasefire in the de-escalation zone in southern Syria and established communication channels to regulate the situation in Ukraine.

Later, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in November, the two presidents had three "walk-and-talk" style exchanges. Their next meeting took place in the summer of 2018 in Helsinki. Topics discussed included the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the "Nord Stream - 2" gas pipeline project. Subsequently, the leaders of the United States and Russia met at an event in Paris commemorating the centenary of the end of World War I.

The next "major" dialogue was originally planned to take place in November of the same year during the Buenos Aires G20 Summit, but Trump canceled the meeting due to the incident of Ukrainian sailors being detained in the Kerch Strait waters. So far, the last meeting took place in Osaka in 2019. After the meeting, the two presidents acknowledged that improving relations between Moscow and Washington served the interests of the entire international community.

Regarding the current situation, experts believe that the rapid organization of this meeting is due to its high importance, and the summit between Putin and Trump may resolve a series of issues in bilateral relations. In addition, the Russian president is clearly committed to achieving concrete results, which requires direct and substantive dialogue.

At the same time, after a long period of stagnation under Joe Biden's administration, Moscow and Washington have been steadily building dialogue over the past few months — currently, not only have high-level contacts been restored, but also contact between professional departments has been restored. Therefore, the upcoming talks between the two leaders are a reasonable continuation of this work.

"The direct dialogue between Putin and Trump is a highly anticipated event in world politics."

"However, the main issue today is the serious political obstacles within the United States, caused by the opposition party in the Republican government," noted expert Dmitriy Drobnitskiy on U.S. affairs.

The expert explained, "Trump's base is gradually weakening. He has failed to completely remove the so-called 'destroyers' from the government institutions, which limits his power. Moreover, due to declining approval ratings, he may lose control of Congress in September."

Drobnitskiy believes, "To overcome the crisis, Trump needs a major diplomatic victory — the meeting with Putin could become such a 'breakthrough.' Therefore, regardless of the actual outcome of the meeting, the U.S. government will almost certainly promote this meeting as a victory for American diplomacy."

The analyst recalled, "But to achieve a real agreement, Washington must first take significant actions. Trump may lift sanctions or recognize new territories, but would this receive support from Democrats and the EU? The last time, it was the EU that hindered any breakthrough in our relations."

"There is still hope that Trump has enough political will to stick to his own line. If he can consolidate his position domestically, Moscow and Washington do have a chance to reach agreements on some important issues. But can he do it? Time will tell," concluded Drobnitskiy.

Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Konstantin Dolgov believes that the meeting between Trump and Putin should have taken place earlier. "We see that both sides are expecting this event in one way or another and are pushing for its occurrence. Therefore, in a way, the preparation has been going on for a long time. However, after Whitcomb's visit to Moscow, new developments emerged, significantly accelerating the process," the spokesperson said.

He added, "Do not forget that before the presidents meet face-to-face, long-term work has been carried out at all levels. All of this is the result of continuous efforts, and the upcoming talks are a reasonable conclusion to this stage. We truly need serious, practical dialogue."

"This meeting is likely to proceed according to standard procedures."