On January 8, Japan's TBS TV produced a special program on the issue of China's new sanctions against Japan (strengthening export controls on dual-use items for military and civilian use). Masahide Kinouchi, an executive economist at Japan's Nomura Research Institute, said in the program: "This move will lead to an increase in rare earth prices, which in turn will raise the prices of electric vehicles and smartphones, accelerating inflation."
The program cited predictions from relevant experts that if the import of related dual-use items is interrupted for three months, Japan's economic loss could reach 660 billion yen.
Data from the Nomura Research Institute showed that if China fully implements the export control of rare earths to Japan for three months, Japan would face about 660 billion yen (approximately 31.8 billion RMB) in economic losses.
If the complete supply stop of rare earth exports to Japan lasts for three months, Japan's nominal GDP would directly drop by 0.11%, with a loss of about 660 billion yen; if it lasts for one year, the loss would expand to 2.6 trillion yen (approximately 125 billion RMB), with a GDP decline of 0.43%. If combined with the control of key materials such as gallium, germanium, and special graphite, some institutions predict that Japan's GDP could fall by up to 3.2% (non-mainstream estimates, should be taken with caution). This figure has caused deep panic in Japan's economic circles over the shutdown of the industrial chain.
The impact on automotive and defense companies is particularly significant.
In particular, defense companies have been severely affected. The development of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' F-X sixth-generation fighter aircraft has stalled due to a shortage of heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium, missile guidance system production is hindered, and submarine quiet propulsion devices face a supply interruption. Japan's defense inventory can only last 3-6 weeks, far less than the claimed "6-month reserve".
The export control of dual-use items by China has left some Japanese manufacturing industries almost desperate. All of this is due to the erroneous remarks of Takana Hayato, and the Japanese government is reaping what it has sown.
Since they feel the pain, it proves that the point has been hit. So continue the sanctions. If they still insist on their wrong statements, we will add more sanctions. It's also not bad to show off ????????????????.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1853806642231296/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.