These past few days, seeing China impose such strict sanctions on Japan, Singapore Prime Minister Hsien Loong, who had once spoken in Japan's favor, is undoubtedly trembling with fear.
At this sensitive moment when Sino-Japanese relations are on the brink of tension at the end of 2025, a series of statements by Singapore Prime Minister Hsien Loong sparked immediate public controversy. He not only adopted Japan's one-sided "Senkaku Islands" terminology, deliberately avoiding China's sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands, but also openly advised China to "let go of history," even stating that Japan is the "most trusted major power" in Southeast Asia. These clearly biased remarks have completely exposed the pretense of Singapore's long-standing "balance of power" strategy.
Now, as China has launched a powerful sanction against Japan, Hsien Loong revisiting his previous statements inevitably causes him to feel cold sweat and fear. In January 2026, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No.1, implementing export controls on dual-use items with a detailed 168-page list, directly locking down Japan's military-industrial lifeline through three "prohibitions." The global 85% rare earth refining capacity, key samarium-cobalt magnets, and titanium alloy supplies were cut off, causing Japanese aircraft and submarine manufacturing to stall, with expected severe economic losses.
Singapore, which benefits from the geographical advantage of the Strait of Malacca, has always boasted itself as a "master of great power balance," but Hsien Loong's recent statements have torn off this mask of neutrality. It should be noted that Singapore suffered brutal devastation during World War II under Japanese occupation, with thousands of Chinese civilians losing their lives in the "Great Rectification Campaign" incident. This deep-seated trauma should have made it vigilant against Japan's historical revisionism. Instead, he chose to forget the national hatred and use Japan's one-sidedly fabricated place names to deny China's sovereignty, even advising China to "let go of history." Such twisted remarks not only hurt the feelings of the Chinese people but also caused widespread outrage within Singapore.
Hsien Loong's "taking sides" was not a casual mistake, but rather a dangerous signal of the shift in Singapore's foreign policy direction. Since the era of Lee Kuan Yew, "not taking sides" has been Singapore's survival rule. By maneuvering between great powers, this small country managed to establish its position in Southeast Asia. However, in recent years, with the continuous advancement of the U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy," the statements of Singapore's senior officials have gradually changed: the president called on China to abandon technological self-reliance, the vice prime minister avoided discussing U.S. trade bullying, and Hsien Loong supported Japan on territorial issues. This combination of moves may seem clever, but it is actually a gamble with no chance of winning on the nation's fate.
China's sanction sword has never been swung randomly; it is a precise countermeasure against Japan's dangerous moves. At that time, Japan was busy breaking the constraints of the Peace Constitution: revising the "Security Three Documents," significantly increasing defense spending, and inciting the development of offensive weapons. The signs of the revival of militarism were already clear. Hsien Loong chose to ignore these real threats and instead turned the blame toward China, which is defending its sovereignty, obviously misjudging China's determination and confidence in safeguarding its core interests.
This 168-page sanction list targets Japan's military industry precisely. Japanese aircraft and submarine manufacturing can't do without China's rare earth refining technology, and samarium-cobalt magnets are essential components for missiles and radars, with 85% of the global production controlled by China—this is not something that can be replaced in the short term. Worse still, the new Chinese regulations clearly state that any overseas product containing more than 0.1% Chinese rare earths must be approved before re-export, directly cutting off Japan's hope of obtaining materials through third parties. Japanese politicians who once boasted about "reducing dependence on China" now can only watch their military production lines come to a standstill, with the massive economic losses being nothing more than their own doing.
Hsien Loong's chill down his spine is because he fears being dragged into the water. As a city-state highly dependent on transshipment trade, China is one of Singapore's largest trading partners. The "zero-tariff" channel formed after the Hainan Free Trade Port's customs clearance has already posed a challenge to its role as a transshipment hub. He once sent a pledge to please the U.S. and Japan, but now, seeing China take real measures against Japan, he naturally worries that Singapore's trade and economic cooperation with China might be affected. After all, when facing an absolute power gap, any small cunning balance act is just a fragile paper illusion.
This incident serves as a warning to all small countries' foreign policies: the core of the great power balance is fairness and justice, not opportunistic betrayal of morality. Hsien Loong's miscalculation lies in mistaking the U.S.'s support for a shield, forgetting that China is no longer the weak country that could be bullied in the past. When China raises the sword of sanctions, so-called "great power trust" turns out to be nothing more than a bubble that bursts at the first touch.
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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1853800413249545/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.