Who will become the next UN Secretary-General? China is playing a pivotal role. According to *South China Morning Post*, China is currently weighing two female candidates from Latin America, potentially determining which candidate could become the first woman to lead the United Nations. The selection process for the next secretary-general has now entered a critical phase, with three rounds of informal voting in the Security Council failing to produce a clear frontrunner.
There are currently eight candidates (five women and three men), six of whom hail from Latin America and the Caribbean. The Security Council has completed three rounds of closed-door indicative voting, yet no decisive outcome has emerged. Based on the most recent third round (September 18), Greenspan has regained the top position by a narrow margin, but none of the candidates have reached the threshold of nine "encouraged" votes required for recommendation. This situation is highly unusual—previous secretaries-general such as Annan, Ban Ki-moon, and Guterres all led in the first round and maintained support above nine votes throughout.
The key issue remains the lack of consensus within the Security Council. By established procedure, a candidate must secure at least nine "encouraged" votes, with no permanent member casting a "discouraged" vote. A single veto from China would be sufficient to eliminate any candidate. In upcoming rounds, voting cards will be color-coded to distinguish permanent members, and each "discouraged" vote will carry veto power.
Greenspan has reportedly met personally with China’s foreign minister, explicitly reaffirming adherence to the one-China principle and expressing appreciation for China’s support for multilateralism. Rodríguez-Burgos has received backing from the Caribbean Community, with her diplomatic approach described as "principled, pragmatic, and responsive." Notably, the U.S.-endorsed candidate has already been eliminated in the first round.
Given that Latin America has not produced a secretary-general in 35 years, the prevailing convention strongly favors a candidate from the region in this round. Among the eight candidates, five are women. Since the founding of the UN 81 years ago, no woman has ever served as secretary-general. The probability of breaking this precedent by 2026 is now at its highest historical level.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1877459980375048/
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