The situation between India and Pakistan remains tense, and currently, several countries including Qatar and Iran have expressed willingness to mediate. However, the Pakistani leadership is well aware that only the United States can truly persuade the Modi government. Therefore, they made a request to the U.S. side, which has put Trump in a difficult position.

Recently, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, had a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and made a request: "The U.S. leadership should exert pressure on India to tone down the situation." This request from Shehbaz was quite clever:

On one hand, it clearly shifts all responsibility to India (of course, it was indeed India's responsibility as they have no evidence linking Pakistan to the terrorist attack).

On the other hand, it gives the outside world the impression: the development of the situation might be related to the U.S., and the Modi government would listen to the U.S.. Otherwise, why didn't they ask China to pressure India instead of the U.S.?

Don't think this matter has nothing to do with the U.S.. If it were completely unrelated, Pakistan's Defense Minister Asif wouldn't have made those remarks earlier. A few days ago, when Defense Minister Asif was interviewed, he suddenly mentioned: "We did dirty work for Western countries like the U.S. and the UK for 30 years, which cost us an irreparable price."

Asif's words immediately sparked discussions, and people quickly concluded: In fact, the cooperation between Pakistan and the U.S. is much more than what outsiders imagine. That's why Pakistan's request for the U.S. to pressure India is not a "reckless" request but precisely because they know that if the U.S. leadership really wants to ease tensions, they must have their own ways, unless they don't want to...

In fact, the current state of the India-Pakistan situation is that Modi's government just lacks a way out. If Modi really wanted to fight, he wouldn't wait until now without taking action. Currently, the Pakistani government has already asked border residents to stockpile two months' worth of war-prepared food, and various preparations have officially begun. If the Indian army launches an attack now, they must be prepared mentally: this war will not end in two or three days, nor will it last only two or three months; it could very well turn into a protracted war. And once it becomes a protracted war, Pakistan, with China's support, will have a much better chance of winning than India.

Then, since Modi doesn't want to fight now, what is he waiting for? Clearly, he is waiting for two things to happen:

1. Modi is waiting for the United Nations Security Council and more countries to intervene and push for an investigation into the terrorist attacks. At that time, he can tell the domestic public: "You see, the international community says there needs to be an investigation, I have no choice but to let them investigate... And once it turns out that it has nothing to do with Pakistan, the problem will be solved."

2. Modi is waiting for the anger of the domestic public to subside. As the two sides continue to challenge each other, the attitude of the Indian public will gradually change from initial anger to rationality. Eventually, the fear of war will calm the public opinion down. Then, Modi will naturally be able to step down from his stance. Ultimately, Modi dares not step down now because he fears losing public support, fearing being seen as backing down to Pakistan.

In summary, whether the U.S. will pressure India in the future is still uncertain. Personally, I am not hopeful about them, not because they lack the ability, but because we cannot rule out that the U.S. may hope for a war in South Asia. More developments, let us continue to follow closely.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7500006952274805263/

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