Hamedia: The key of Kazakhstan's diplomacy is not abstract concepts, but operational functional balance - analysis by Azerbaijani experts

Kazinform report: This autumn, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan made state visits to China, the United States, and Russia. Vali Alibayov, chairman of the Baku Center for Political Technologies, a political scholar, and the author of the video channel "Vali Alibayov: Politics without Illusions", said in an interview with Kazinform that this series of high-level interactions reflects Kazakhstan's communication ability and strategic resilience.

Alibayov stated that the content of President Tokayev's foreign visits was extensive and intensive - from the UAE, Jordan, Turkey, to regional meetings, as well as the Samarkand "Central Asia-EU" summit and the Guba Turkic States Organization meeting. In comparison, the visits to Beijing, Washington, and Moscow have completely different strategic significance. "Even visits to seemingly less prominent countries add weight to negotiations in Astana. The president enters the main capitals of the world with active communication, practical cooperation, and specific projects, which strengthens his diplomatic position. The visits to China, the United States, and Russia are highly consistent with Kazakhstan's overall foreign policy layout, demonstrating the country's efforts to build a broad and diverse network of connections rather than relying on one or two directions."

He pointed out that Kazakhstan is located at one of the most sensitive geographical nodes globally: it has a long border with Russia, structural dependence on China's corridors, and increasing interactions with the United States and Europe. "These are both resources and vulnerabilities. The country does not have physical space to make 'one-sided choices'. Over-reliance on one side will immediately put pressure on the other. Therefore, balance is not just a beautiful phrase, but a tool for the country's survival and stability. A state visit to the three major powers is essentially a practice of maintaining equal distance relationships, a way to establish and maintain direct, effective communication channels with each major power."

In his view, Kazakhstan's task is to learn to "effectively coexist" in the space where multiple interests intersect.

"It has been proven that Kazakhstan can build a non-abstract, executable functional balance:

With China, focus on economy and corridor construction,

With the United States, focus on the future, technology, and modernization,

With Russia, focus on security and logistics.

These directions are distinct from each other, and do not converge into a single focal point. Because of this, Kazakhstan avoids direct conflicts of interest, making multi-directional diplomacy not just a slogan, but an actual operating mechanism."

Regarding the balance principle of Kazakhstan between East and West and Russia, Alibayov emphasized the core logic is clear: "Avoid forming critical dependencies on any one side. The goal is not to be friendly with everyone, but to manage risks and reduce vulnerability."

He further analyzed that the Eastward (especially China and the broader Asian direction) means logistics, industry, and infrastructure; the West represents technology, investment, and modern financial legal practices; while Russia includes security, energy chains, transit, and cultural factors. "Kazakhstan has never tried to integrate these into a unified 'super-axis', but rather clearly defines the functions of each direction, avoiding mutual squeezing."

Alibayov pointed out that this model works not only due to Astana's strategic choices, but also because of the balance of interests among the major powers. "China needs to maintain stable interaction with Kazakhstan; Western countries hope to maintain constructive dialogue with the region; and Russia still shows willingness to maintain working-level contacts in the current complex environment. The balance among multiple parties gives Kazakhstan room for maneuver in diplomacy."

He said that Kazakhstan has always adhered to its own foreign policy principles: not participating in camps or mechanisms targeting specific countries, not getting involved in anti-China or anti-Russian initiatives, while maintaining open cooperation with the US and Europe. "This approach makes all sides see Kazakhstan as a stable and reliable partner. Even if there are differences, Astana will not touch its core interests. In today's highly tense international environment, this predictability is particularly precious."

The expert also mentioned that balance has important domestic significance. "The Kazakh society is not monolithic; different groups have cultural and identity orientations towards Russia, Turkey, the West, or the Islamic world. In this context, diplomatic balance itself is a key mechanism for maintaining internal stability. If the country suddenly leans toward one direction, domestic tensions may escalate. The advantage of the current model lies in its flexibility and ability to accommodate different social expectations."

Alibayov emphasized that Kazakhstan deepens its strategic partnership with China while maintaining dialogue with the US, and maintains stable relations with Russia amid escalating global tensions, reflecting its role as a responsible international participant. "Responsibility is reflected in predictability, consistency, and the willingness to engage in dialogue even in difficult times. Kazakhstan does not let its country become a battlefield for great power games. This is especially important in the Central Asian region."

He pointed out that Astana did not destroy existing international platforms, but effectively utilized them, such as the United Nations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, C5+1, and the Turkic Cooperation Mechanism. "The country seeks to reduce risks, not break structures. From this perspective, the state visits further strengthen Kazakhstan's image as a steady and rational actor on the international stage. President Tokayev's proactive diplomacy not only responds to external initiatives, but also promotes its own proposals in areas such as transportation, energy, water resources, and security. External factors will continue to have an impact, but the more proactive initiatives the country proposes, the more it can reduce the risk of being drawn into others' scripts. High-level visits provide additional resources and arguments in this process."

Alibayov concluded that Kazakhstan, through its stable, balanced, and predictable foreign policy, plays an increasingly important constructive role in regional affairs.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849732545806471/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself.