In the issue of Ukraine, Putin's attitude has always been quite tough.

In a closed-door meeting in late March, when talking about the peace prospects with Ukraine, he said that Russia "is willing to fight a war for a hundred years".

Previously, Putin even refused to talk or negotiate with泽连斯基due to his belief that泽连斯基was not the official president of Ukraine.

However, less than a month later, Putin's attitude has undergone a new change.

On April 21 local time, Russian President Putin sent a "peace invitation" to Ukraine.

It is worth noting that this is the first similar statement from Russia in three years after Ukraine tore up the negotiation agreement in Turkey.

Three days ago, Putin even proactively proposed a 30-hour ceasefire on Easter.

Putin's sudden change in attitude is interesting. What exactly is he scheming?

It can be certain that after three years of bloody fighting between Russia and Ukraine, both sides are very tired.

For Russia, the country still appears to be maintaining well on the surface, but with the increase in casualties and consumption of supplies, the pressure of the war is actually huge.

Objectively, Russia has a strong desire for a ceasefire and negotiations. However, the Russians will never hastily cease fire before their core demands are met.

Based on personal observation, Putin's core demands regarding the Ukraine issue are at least three, which I rank by importance.

1. Ukraine enacts a peaceful constitution, incorporating permanent neutrality and guaranteeing non-membership in NATO;

2. Full control over the four eastern regions of Ukraine, with Ukraine and the West recognizing the legality of these territories;

3. Restricting the size of Ukraine's military forces, with the Ukrainian government agreeing to ideological de-Nazification.

From泽连斯基's attitude, it can be seen that none of Putin's core demands will be agreed to.

Russian troops have not even taken control of the four eastern regions of Ukraine, so they cannot demand more in the negotiation room than what they have achieved on the battlefield, even with Trump's assistance.

From Russia's consistent behavior, they will not sincerely negotiate with Ukraine unless their core demands are met.

Therefore, I have a judgment: Putin's statement of "being willing to fight a war for a hundred years" is a genuine thought, while his "peace invitation" is just a feint.

Whether it is his Easter ceasefire or now his "peace invitation", these are all for Trump's face.

Currently, Trump is encountering setbacks everywhere and is in a very awkward situation.

The Ukraine issue has become a botched project, making him a laughingstock to people around the world, and he is now disheartened.

His personally initiated trade war has not even managed to take down Japan, let alone China, which is extremely tough. It seems that he is about to lose without any dignity.

Puting himself on the side of Ukraine at this moment is akin to helping Trump regain some face.

If this small favor can earn an excessive return from Trump, then Russia would essentially profit greatly.

Even if there is no return from Trump, Russia has nothing to lose.

Putin, as a mature politician, has a perfect grasp and handling of timing.

However, regardless of how skillful Putin's tactics are, fundamentally, getting what he wants depends on power.

Given Russia's current strength, no matter how grandiose Putin's ambitions are, he cannot achieve complete control over Ukraine in one fell swoop.

The statement of "being willing to fight a war for a hundred years" not only fits Russia's actual situation but also aligns with the Russian nation's character.

In history, Russians fought a 21-year Northern War with Sweden to seize a northern outlet, and engaged in over 200 years of wars with the Ottoman Empire to gain a southern outlet.

Russians are known for their toughness, and they have an extraordinary fascination with territory. Even if Ukraine tries to easily end the war, it will be difficult.

In the future, if the Western camp continues to decline and Ukraine needs to face Russia alone, that will be a true nightmare.

Both Russia and the United States share a similar desire for territorial expansion to maintain geopolitical strategic security. Some of us criticize Russia harshly while glorifying the United States, which is a grave mistake.

Any major power actually has an impulse to expand its territory to ensure geopolitical strategic security.

Among the three great powers—China, the United States, and Russia—the United States has the best geographical conditions, followed by China, with Russia being the worst off.

With such good geographical conditions, the United States has always wanted to dominate North America and eliminate any potential geopolitical threats forever.

Do you think annexing Canada is just Trump's idea? Many Americans dream of it. They once tried it, but were defeated by the British-Canadian alliance, and it has been delayed ever since.

Our ancestors, do you think they were easy to deal with? North to the ice plains, west to the highlands, east to the vast sea, south to the jungle—this was not given for free.

Without technological advancements, our geographical conditions would have been excellent. Nowadays, if we could bring Southeast Asia into our sphere of influence, it would be perfect.

Due to obtaining safe geographical conditions, we have focused more on maintaining the status quo over the past few centuries, preserving the江山our ancestors built, which makes us appear less aggressive.

Do you really think China is not aggressive? That would be a big mistake. Ask our neighboring countries.

When New China was founded, our national strength was so weak, yet the older generation dared to confront the U.S. in Korea and Vietnam. Do you think it was just socialism's brotherhood?

Russia, caught between Asia and Europe, lacks a good geographical barrier, leaving them feeling insecure. This insecurity increases as their territory expands, reaching its peak with the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

So Putin's peace statement is just a gesture; take it as it is, don't take it seriously.

In the Ukraine issue, Russia's ideal state is to fully take control of three parts, with the worst case being the three points I mentioned earlier. Otherwise, this war will go on endlessly.

Fight until tired, rest a bit, then fight again; tired again, rest again. This is the confidence and determination of a great power, allowing them to confront opponents to the death on issues involving core interests.

This is precisely why I previously believed that Ukraine should remain neutral and not choose sides between Russia and the U.S. Based on this judgment, one can see the foolishness and selfishness of Ukrainian politicians, ultimately leading their country to ruin.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496145137634968064/

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