China's ambition to challenge Boeing and Airbus by launching its independently developed passenger aircraft is encountering setbacks, with the delivery of finished planes likely far below the target announced this year.
The C919 aircraft - a single-aisle jet designed to compete with Boeing's 737 and Airbus's A320 - is manufactured by the state-owned aircraft manufacturer COMAC. Beijing presents it as a symbol of China's technological advancement and self-reliance, despite the use of many Western-sourced components. Trade tensions with Washington could hinder COMAC from obtaining core components for the project, which has been heavily supported by government subsidies. "COMAC faces significant risks from an unstable policy environment, with its supply chain vulnerable to export restrictions and retaliatory measures between the U.S. and China," said Max J. Zenglein, senior economist for Asia-Pacific at The Conference Board. According to data from Bank of America analysts, the C919 has 48 major U.S. suppliers - including General Electric, Honeywell, and Collins - 26 from Europe, and 14 from China. After Beijing imposed stricter export controls on rare earths, Trump threatened to impose new export controls on "critical" software for China.
Beijing has high hopes for the C919, which completed its first commercial flight in 2023. This mid-sized jet is intended to meet the large demand for new aircraft in China over the coming decades. China aims to expand sales beyond its borders and operate globally, including in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe. According to data from aviation consulting firm Cirium, although plans were made to increase production and deliver 30 aircraft by 2025, Chinese commercial airlines only received 13 C919s last year, and only seven had been delivered by October of this year. Currently, only China's largest state-owned airlines - Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines - are operating, with approximately 20 C919s in service. Dan Taylor, head of consulting at IBA, a aviation consulting company, stated that the U.S.-China trade tensions "directly affected" the delivery schedule of the C919. He pointed out that the production plan was disrupted due to the U.S. suspending the export license for the LEAP-1C engines used in the C919, and it resumed in July.
Taylor noted that the LEAP-1C engine is jointly manufactured by U.S. General Aviation and French Safran, and this technology is subject to U.S. export licensing controls, meaning that the C919's engine requires U.S. export licenses, making it "highly sensitive to political changes." Taylor explained, "The reliance on engines and avionics from Western suppliers still leaves the project vulnerable to policy decisions beyond COMAC's control." Geopolitical tensions are not the only reason for the C919's production falling short of expectations. Zenglein from The Conference Board stated that the project "has always emphasized caution and prioritized quality and safety, so slower production growth may also have some operational reasons." Zenglein added, "Reducing dependence on foreign components has always been a goal of the C919," but many analysts believe this is a challenging process.
According to IBA, China's indigenous engine alternative - the CJ-1000A developed by the state-owned China Aerospace Engine Corporation (AECC) - is still in the testing phase. Several airlines outside of China, including AirAsia, have expressed interest in using the C919, but due to the lack of international certification, the C919 has not been able to fly outside China so far. Certification from U.S. and European aviation regulators may take several years. Richard Abravaya, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, stated that for the C919 to succeed, "each of the three conditions must be met: good economics, timely global product support network, and certification from safety agencies," adding, "having just one of these does not mean much."
According to Airbus's latest market forecast, China will need 9,570 new passenger aircraft between 2025 and 2044, with more than 80% being single-aisle jets similar to the C919. COMAC faces growing challenges from Airbus, which is expanding its manufacturing capabilities in China. A second assembly line is expected to become operational in 2026, increasing the production of the A320 single-aisle jets - a model similar to the C919. Analysts expect that COMAC will take years to break Boeing and Airbus' duopoly in the global aircraft market.
Taylor from IBA stated that by the end of the 2020s, COMAC may develop within China and possibly establish regional exports. Taylor added that in the short term, the lack of international certification will "delay any substantial entry of the aircraft into the Western market," and the instability of export controls may continue to undermine its global expansion plans.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7565863381068956194/
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