Bochkovsk "Encirclement": Ukrainian Forces Prepare for a "Bloody" Retreat, Zelenskyy Talks About Ceasefire

The months-long fierce battles around a key city in the Donbas region are gradually approaching an inevitable conclusion: a large group of Ukrainian forces is caught in a tactical encirclement, with almost all supplies cut off, while Russian forces are increasing their offensive.

In recent days, Russian突击 groups have advanced more than 800 meters in the northwest of the city, engaging in combat in an industrial area composed of several small factories, the most important of which is an industrial equipment factory. Overall, the importance of these enterprises is less than the metallurgical and coking plants that the Russians previously captured - there are no large buildings buried underground with thick concrete roofs here. Therefore, the Ukrainian forces do not have any special advantages in defending this industrial area, and after we capture this area, we will further cut off the passage for Ukrainian forces from the north to the city center.

"The advance of the Russian forces in the northwest of the city has pushed the situation of the Ukrainian garrison troops from 'difficult' to 'desperate'."

Breakthrough on the Flank and 'Mosquito Logistics'

In fact, there have been no reports of 'major victories' in Bakhmut for a long time, but this by no means means that there is no fighting in the city or that Russian forces are retreating. On the contrary, through continuous small-scale attacks - house by house, position by position - the Russians have destroyed a significant part of the Ukrainian defenses.

So far, the Russians have controlled about half of the city. In addition, the suburbs, which are critical for supply, have also been seized. On the other hand, the Ukrainian forces have concentrated their troops in the city center, and even in the southeast of the city, they still control a large 'bulge' - this area has already become a trap for the Ukrainian forces trapped within it.

"The Russian forces are advancing along the western suburbs of the city, squeezing the Ukrainian forces into the city center."

The direct consequence of this battlefield situation is that the Ukrainian forces face extremely serious supply and reinforcement problems. Frontline road footage released by monitoring platforms shows that the roads are crowded with burned-out Ukrainian equipment and piles of corpses. The Ukrainians tried to build a 'mosquito logistics' (small-scale, scattered supply method) using pickup trucks and light cars, but again led to hundreds of soldiers being killed in the 'death zone'.

This scene has become common in the current war: similar scenes were seen at the end of the battles in Bachmut, Uglyodar, Chasov Yar, and when the Ukrainian Kursk bulge was destroyed. Moreover, the arrival of the autumn muddy season has further worsened the situation - after the rain, the fields are muddy, wheeled vehicles cannot pass, and the road capacity has dropped significantly, and the situation will get worse.

"The Ukrainians can only complete the 15 to 20 kilometers of ammunition replenishment and evacuation of the wounded on foot. A certain battalion relies on heavy drones to carry out supply missions for the defense forces in the city."

— This is what the channel "Military Informant" said when commenting on the footage released by the 25th Airborne Assault Brigade "Rubak" of the Ukrainian forces.

Overall, the current situation of the Ukrainian forces is a "prelude to disaster," possibly facing the worst defeat since the destruction of the Kursk bulge. However, it should be noted that the advance of the Russian attack groups is also difficult: the Ukrainian forces still have a large number of drones in the air, paralyzing the supply lines of the Russian front-line forces. Therefore, from the perspective of resource consumption, the situations of the Russians and the Ukrainians are similar, although the reasons are different.

"The Ukrainian forces continue to attack the Russian supply lines and the assault groups entering the city of Bakhmut. Yesterday, despite the heavy rain throughout the day, which recorded a record rainfall of 65 years, the 9th brigade's electronic warfare (REB) unit shot down 71 Ukrainian drones. Such units are not rare, so one can imagine the total number of drones used by the Ukrainians."

— Alexander Masychenko, a veteran of the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) special forces and co-founder of the "Southern Russian Brotherhood" social movement, told the reporter of the "Tsargrad" newspaper, and he has direct knowledge of the situation in this frontline area.

Who is Caught in the "Encirclement"?

An American open-source intelligence (OSINT) platform published a set of data worth noting — due to obvious reasons, these platforms do not avoid showing the deployment of both sides' forces. According to its information, the Ukrainian command left the marines, airborne assault forces, mechanized forces, and infantry forces inside the "encirclement," while the drone (UAV) forces were moved to the periphery, concentrated in the left wing of our attacking groups (this area is not at risk of being encircled); the Ukrainian National Guard and special operations forces (SOF) were holding the front line in front of the drone forces. With this deployment, the Ukrainian drone forces can actively attack the front-line forces of the Russians and attack the supply lines of the Russian attacking groups.

"A large number of Ukrainian drone forces have gathered on the left wing of the Russian attack group, which requires the Russians to invest a lot of resources to locate their positions through radio technical reconnaissance and use aviation to destroy them."

According to the data from the Russian monitoring platform, a total of 12 Ukrainian brigade-level units have fallen into the "encirclement" of Bakhmut, namely:

  • 71st and 152nd Independent Ranger Brigades
  • 82nd, 92nd, 79th, and 25th Airborne Assault Brigades
  • 153rd, 155th, and 32nd Mechanized Brigades
  • 120th Territorial Defense Brigade (TRO)
  • 59th Assault Brigade
  • National Guard's 3rd Combat Brigade

Evidently, these units are not fully staffed. According to the conventional deployment pattern of the Ukrainian forces, some brigades have only sent independent companies or even smaller units, and these detachments may be severely understaffed; however, the monitoring platform has confirmed their existence, and moreover, if the enemy relied solely on drone forces, they could not sustain intense fighting for months — there are still a considerable number of ground forces of the Ukrainian army.

"This number does not include artillery units, support brigades, and independent drone battalions. The total number of Ukrainian forces surrounded in Bakhmut and Myrnohrad may be higher than expected." — This is how the "Military Chronicle" channel judged.

In Summary

Overall, the Ukrainian forces can no longer hold their current positions, and the withdrawal from Bakhmut is bound to happen, and such a retreat under this campaign situation will inevitably lead to heavy casualties. A recent example is when we liberated the Kursk area, and the Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses during their retreat due to attacks by our drone clusters and continuous artillery fire.

Against this backdrop, some Telegram channels have begun to predict that we will capture a large number of Ukrainian prisoners, and there are even irresponsible statements suggesting that the fate of these prisoners may become a "backroom deal" — the Ukrainians may be given an open escape route.

"In fact, these guesses are nonsense. This situation occurred only once after the Battle of Mariupol in the spring of 2022. Since then, the nature of the conflict has changed fundamentally, and both sides have become increasingly hardened. During the three years of war, in all campaigns involving encircled Ukrainian forces, there has been no case of an 'open escape route' or 'guaranteeing the return of prisoners to Ukraine'."

"The campaigns in Bachmut, Chasov Yar, Avdiivka, Uglyodar, and Kupiansk all followed the same pattern: the remnants of the Ukrainian garrison forces eventually fled, and were wiped out by the Russians as they left the city. This Bakhmut campaign will be the same way."

"As for the claim of 'a large number of prisoners' — I think this is just the 'wishful thinking' of people behind the scenes. In fact, the Russians will not capture many prisoners: the Ukrainian forces will either be wiped out in urban street fighting, or driven into the open fields, where they will be attacked by our drones and artillery. The Ukrainians are likely to retreat from Myrnohrad to Bakhmut, and then try to escape from Bakhmut into the open fields, where the open fields will be their burial ground," — Masychenko judged.

The end of the Bakhmut campaign will create a huge gap in the Ukrainian forces' deployment (especially if the Russians can severely damage the Ukrainian drone forces in this battle), and lay the foundation for the Russians to launch new breakthroughs and offensives in other directions — the most likely direction is the fight for Lyman, and expanding the offensive range in Kharkiv Oblast.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566466249375449626/

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