【Text by Observer Network Columnist Xue Kaihuan】
Nine months ago, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bensons made an unexpected visit to Kyiv. During this visit, there was a tough negotiation between Ukraine and the United States on the so-called "mineral agreement."
At that time, once the US-Ukrainian "mineral agreement" was released, it caused a big stir. The public generally believed that for the Ukrainian authorities, this was an unacceptable agreement, "not suitable as a basis for negotiations." But the United States paid no attention to public opinion, and Bensons even demanded the Ukrainian authorities to "sign immediately," without accepting any compromise or mediation.
Now, a similar story is repeating itself.
On November 20, the American Axios news website published a "28-point plan" drafted by the Trump administration to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The points include a mutual non-aggression agreement between Russia and Ukraine and Europe, and Ukraine's commitment not to join NATO. Reactions to the "28-point plan" vary among the parties: the proposer, the United States, needs no further explanation, and Russia has already expressed appreciation for the plan. As for the other two players of the "28-point plan", the EU and the Ukrainian authorities, their attitudes remain unclear.
From the initial reaction of the EU, they generally hold a negative attitude towards the "28-point plan." "Bad," "strange," "weird," and "hard to understand" are the general evaluations of the "28-point plan" by the EU and other European countries. At the same time, some statements by Zelenskyy on November 20, as well as reports from Western media citing certain "influential officials" in Kyiv, can be interpreted as a "reluctant agreement" with the main clauses of the plan.
On November 21, Kyiv, Ukraine, President Zelenskyy appeared. IC Photo
Especially, there are reports that the U.S. and the Ukrainian Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov jointly participated in and coordinated the development of the plan, and Umerov himself also modified the plan, which further supports the above view.
A U.S. government official revealed that the original draft required a comprehensive audit of all international aid to Ukraine to combat corruption. However, in the final version of the "28-point plan," according to Umerov's suggestion, this part was modified, adding a clause that "all actions taken by the parties to the conflict during the conflict will be granted full amnesty." Afterward, the U.S. delegation presented the plan to Zelenskyy and his entourage in Kyiv on Thursday.
The Russian side has not officially confirmed the Western media's report on the "28-point plan." However, based on media reports, this plan is very beneficial to Russia, as it includes all the basic requirements needed to resolve the root causes of the Ukraine crisis (including its military stage). First, it takes into account Russia's two most fundamental demands: first, the final resolution of the Ukraine crisis must be carried out within the framework of long-term normalization of relations between Russia and the West, establishing a new European security architecture; second, it stipulates the general principles of negotiations: first, reach an agreement on the basic terms of the peace plan, then achieve a ceasefire.
The focus of the "28-point plan" is the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from the remaining parts of Donetsk under Ukrainian control (the Luhansk region has been fully occupied by Russia), meaning that Russia would have control over the entire Donbas region. The plan also includes other important clauses: prohibiting the Ukrainian authorities from possessing long-range strike weapons; granting Ukraine a neutral status, prohibiting foreign armies from being deployed in Ukraine; recognizing the Orthodox Church in Ukraine and the official status of the Russian language in Ukraine.
In addition, the plan specifies "post-war clauses," that the United States should recognize Russia's sovereignty over the entire Donbas region and Crimea. The plan also recommends reducing Western military aid to Kyiv and cutting down the size of the Ukrainian army.
At the same time, the plan also contains some clauses that Russia may not accept. For example, some areas of the Donetsk region where the Ukrainian army withdraws will maintain a demilitarized status, which actually limits Russia's "sovereignty" over the Donbas region. The plan also stipulates that the United States should provide some security guarantees to the Ukrainian authorities, following the provisions of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (collective response to military action). Regarding how to further use the frozen Russian assets in the West, the plan contains some controversial clauses. But overall, the "28-point plan" is a peace plan that Russia is quite satisfied with, based on the Istanbul Agreement signed by the Kyiv delegation in April 2022.
Trump's previous attempts to negotiate with Kyiv failed because Zelenskyy and the EU refused to touch the root causes of the crisis: the Ukrainian authorities and the EU tried to exhaust Russia's strength through war, thereby causing "strategic failure" for Russia. The Ukrainian authorities, the UK, and the EU still try every means to delay military losses, hoping to force Russia to mobilize again and hope for Russia's "sudden collapse." The political status of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic" remains unresolved, which is the consequence of the Ukrainian authorities and the EU failing to implement the Second Minsk Agreement, and it is also the direct initial cause of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
But with the passage of time, some changes have occurred, and these changes make the Ukrainian authorities, the UK, and the EU, even if reluctant, unable to ignore peace any longer, nor could they continue to resist the core ideas of the Trump administration with a hard line: Ukraine is not important, and can be abandoned at any time.
What exactly changed? First, it is the first time that the Ukrainian authorities and the EU are unable to continue the war due to financial difficulties.
December 2025 is approaching, and the deadline for the EU to decide on Russian assets has been postponed again. Brussels originally planned to use these assets as collateral to meet Ukraine's financial needs. However, the EU still does not know how to obtain the frozen Russian assets in Belgium in a relatively legal way, nor do they know how to motivate the Ukrainian authorities to continue to extract more money through "domestic austerity" to support the war.
Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities, lacking both internal and external support, have a fiscal shortfall of about 60 billion dollars. Without this money, the Ukrainian authorities cannot maintain the normal operation of government institutions and the economy, and the war cannot continue.
Second, the situation of the Ukrainian army is much worse than before. With the continuous progress of the Russian army on the front lines in Donetsk and Pokrovsk, the desertion rate of the Ukrainian army is rising continuously, and incidents of entire companies, even regiments and brigades, fleeing from the front lines are frequent. The "combat will" of the Ukrainian army and Ukrainian society has already reached a point of exhaustion, making it difficult to sustain.
Third, and most importantly, the "Minske recording incident" and related corruption scandals have led the Ukrainian authorities to be deeply involved in internal and external crises. The huge pressure may force the Ukrainian authorities and Zelenskyy to accept the "28-point plan," which is what Trump and the United States welcome.
The so-called "Minske recording incident" refers to the Ukrainian anti-corruption bureau searching and exposing the corruption network led by Minske, a close ally of Zelenskyy and one of the founders of the "95th district." The amount involved in the corruption network is 100 million dollars, and several high-ranking officials of the Ukrainian authorities (including Zelenskyy) are involved, while Minske himself fled abroad before the investigation.
The Minske incident is crucial because it is obviously not an impulsive act or an individual's attempt to influence the power structure, but a carefully planned event aimed at striking those who previously considered themselves "superior" in the Ukrainian regime (such as Zelenskyy and the head of the presidential office Yermak). It is well known that the Ukrainian anti-corruption bureau and a series of anti-corruption agencies are "supreme authority agencies" funded by the US and Europe, and their operations are basically beyond the control of the Ukrainian authorities. Therefore, what we see now is likely the result of deliberate manipulation.
The situation for the Ukrainian authorities is already very critical: Zelenskyy, Yermak, and Minske have become the core targets of attacks by domestic opposition forces, and calls for their immediate resignation have become public, with tensions reaching the point that even the parliamentary faction of the president has seen similar demands. This phenomenon indicates that the image of Zelenskyy's team has been greatly affected in the Ukrainian political scene.
Why do I say that the Minske incident and subsequent corruption scandals have clear elements of manipulation? Regardless of the connection between the Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies and the United States, looking at the reaction of the United States after the incident, it is also quite revealing.
For example, after the incident, the U.S. special envoy for Middle East affairs, Witkov, canceled his meeting with Yermak in Turkey. In addition, Witkov also refused to meet with Zelenskyy, citing the reason that the U.S. had previously "underestimated" the impact of the Minske incident, and therefore the U.S. now wants to avoid any public or informal communication with the Ukrainian authorities.
At the same time, Witkov met with the Ukrainian Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov, discussing "a certain proposal," and decided that Umerov would bring the proposal back to be announced. This proposal is the "28-point plan," meaning that during the process of the "28-point plan" being developed, the highest-level figures of the Ukrainian authorities, such as Zelenskyy and Yermak, were almost completely excluded by the United States, while Umerov, an outsider, was highly favored by the United States.
I do not think that Witkov or the Trump administration really "underestimated" the impact of the Minske incident; this is clearly an excuse. By tracing the timeline, it can be found that the U.S. campaign against the Ukrainian authorities began with the visit of the U.S. Ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, to Kyiv, when Zelenskyy refused to discuss the peace-related topics according to the plan previously agreed upon by Putin and Trump in their telephone conversation.
Zelenskyy (left) and Minske (right) on social media
Because of Zelenskyy's firm stance, after that call, Trump decided to pressure the Ukrainian authorities through the Ukrainian anti-corruption bureau. For Trump, this method of pressure carries far less reputational risk than directly imposing sanctions or publicly pressuring Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian authorities, as the latter would inevitably provoke the backlash of Atlanticists. And given Trump's deep involvement in the Epstein case, he obviously does not want to take additional risks on the Ukraine issue.
The result is clear: through the Minske incident, Trump seems to have successfully brought the negotiation process back to the track he desired, and the Ukrainian authorities and the EU can no longer intentionally sabotage the peace process. Due to their lack of constructive attitude, the Budapest summit between Putin and Trump has been delayed. The Minske incident has further strengthened the calls within the EU for cutting off aid to the Ukrainian authorities, and the deteriorating situation in the Donetsk region has left the Ukrainian authorities with no confidence, forcing Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian authorities to soften their position and show at least a willingness to open up the peace process. Given the above circumstances, the possibility of the Ukrainian authorities agreeing to the "peace plan" proposed by Russia and the United States is now higher than before.
Of course, Europe is still pushing the Ukrainian authorities to "wait and see," trying to soften Trump's position as before. For example, Sky News in the UK claimed that the "28-point plan" puts the Ukrainian authorities in a difficult position, and the Ukrainian authorities and Europe are afraid of angering Trump and thus "can't completely reject this plan." But the EU and Ukraine still hope to "delay time" and hope that he (Trump) can still pressure Putin to end the war, rather than forcing Ukraine to surrender. Another article by Sky News pointed out that Zelenskyy "must be careful," because "lack of response may anger Trump and lead him to issue an ultimatum: either accept this plan or face the consequences."
But as mentioned above, the situation has changed. Now the United States plays the role of a "weapon dealer," and the model of aid to Ukraine has changed to the United States selling weapons to Europe, and then Europe providing these weapons to Ukraine. This creates a problem: how long can Europe and the Ukrainian authorities sustain this model without the "unconditional aid" from the United States? Obviously, this model is unsustainable.
Moreover, after the Minske incident, Zelenskyy's political popularity suffered a heavy blow, and the worsening situation in the east of Ukraine, which the authorities are responsible for, has added to the internal and external crises, making the Zelenskyy regime increasingly vulnerable. If Kyiv refuses the "28-point plan" this time, the United States may continue to increase pressure, such as completely cutting off intelligence support to Ukraine. This pressure is something the current Zelenskyy regime can no longer bear.
Russia has no illusions about the "28-point plan," but while excluding any absolutely unacceptable details, Russia is also willing to explore various possibilities to advance the plan. This is the fundamental reason why Russia has a positive attitude towards the "28-point plan." For Ukraine, the most important thing is that the fate of Ukraine is not important to Trump. What matters is for Trump to win the Nobel Peace Prize. The means Trump uses to achieve this goal is "extreme pressure," even at any cost. This is the biggest reality and problem faced by the Zelenskyy regime, which is in internal and external crises.
Time is not only unfavorable to Zelenskyy, but also to Trump: it is now mid-November, and January 21 next year will mark his first anniversary in office. In the American political tradition, the first year of the presidency, like the first 100 days, holds significant symbolic meaning. Trump confidently promised to quickly end the Russia-Ukraine conflict at his inauguration. If there is no breakthrough by the anniversary, he will definitely face criticism. Therefore, it is in Trump's interest to end the Ukraine crisis as soon as possible, which will also make him intensify pressure on the Ukrainian authorities to make them concede.
The further west the frontline is, the stronger Russia's negotiating position becomes. From the current situation, the longer it drags on, the worse it is for Ukraine. If Ukraine wants to "wait and see," and later forced to accept "peace terms" that are worse than the current "28-point plan," just like the "28-point plan" is worse than the agreement that might have been reached in the spring of 2022.
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