China and Russia conducted joint submarine patrols, marking the latest step in their increasingly developing partnership. Although the exercise involved only two submarines, the message was clear: the United States should consider the prospect of confronting the China-Russia alliance.

Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Program at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities, told Defense News, "I think this is a deterrence effort. While it's hard to imagine they would fight the West at the same time, they might benefit from some possible impression."

Beijing and Moscow described it as a milestone in military cooperation. A Chinese military expert told China's Global Times, "The first joint submarine patrol indicates a high level of strategic trust between China and Russia. Maintaining contact between submarines not only requires higher technical expertise, but also more in-depth communication."

The patrol consisted of the Russian submarine Volkhov and a Chinese submarine, accompanied by two Russian surface ships — the frigate Gromkiy and a submarine rescue ship. In August, after joint anti-submarine exercises held by China and Russia at the beginning of August, they sailed in the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan. The exercises included surface ships and aircraft. According to the Russian newspaper Izvestiya, the Volkhov traveled 2,000 miles and ended its voyage in Vladivostok.

The submarines of Russia and China are both Kilo-class, diesel-electric submarines designed by the Soviet Union in the 1970s, known for their acoustic silence. "This is a reasonable choice because China imported this type of submarine from Russia, so their capabilities are very similar and can easily become exercise partners," said Goldstein, who will publish a new book on the China-Russia naval alliance in January.

More importantly, what China and Russia chose not to do during the exercises: deploy their nuclear-powered submarines, perhaps because they did not want to show advanced warships to potential future rivals. "So far, China and Russia have not cooperated in the use of nuclear-powered submarines — at least publicly," said Goldstein.

In fact, the current brotherhood between China and Russia is pragmatic rather than sentimental. Although the two countries were allies in the 1950s, Chinese and Russian armies fought each other in border clashes in 1969, and Soviet leaders considered a nuclear strike on China. The Kremlin knows that China believes parts of the Russian Far East are territories stolen by China.

Regardless of the reason, the surface alliance is just an aging pairing with roughly similar warships.

Richard Moss, professor at the Russian Maritime Institute at the U.S. Naval War College, told Defense News, "Neither side has given up anything that the other didn't know about by using the Kilo class."

Although the Chinese and Russian militaries share a common lineage in Soviet military thought and equipment, this does not guarantee integration in joint exercises.

Moss pointed out, "The level of interaction is far from what the United States and its allies, such as NATO countries, often do." Moss stated that he was speaking in his personal capacity.

Despite this, the submarine patrol is the latest in a series of highly publicized displays of military cooperation between China and Russia. In 2019, the two countries began sporadic bomber patrols, including four bombers from China and Russia flying near Alaska in 2024. In 2021, surface ships began annual joint patrols. In 2021, joint land exercises such as Zapad/Interaction were also held.

Goldstein said, "I think [the submarine patrol] is very consistent with the overall pattern." "It is repetitive, consistent, relatively small in scale, and usually has a new dimension, whether in technological or geographical terms."

Goldstein raised an interesting possibility: the submarine patrol is a warning to the Australia-United Kingdom-United States Agreement (AUKUS), which calls for Australia to acquire nuclear submarines with the help of the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as American submarines operating outside Australian bases.

Goldstein said, "I see a lot of evidence that Chinese naval strategists are closely following the development of AUKUS, and they are very anxious about the threat of this project." "I also see Chinese strategists discussing how it makes sense to strengthen cooperation between China and Russia in undersea warfare to counter AUKUS."

A key indicator of Sino-Russian relations will be the coordinated operations of their nuclear submarines.

Goldstein said, "If they really take this important step in the future, it may indicate that the situation will become more tense and worrying, as it may signal the sharing of more high-tech on the most advanced combat platforms."

He opposed overreacting to these joint patrols.

"The increasing deployment of our forces and more intense exercises with allies often go beyond our intentions, causing backlash — which can be seen in the emerging China-Russia quasi-alliance."

How deep this alliance is remains to be seen.

Goldstein said, "The history of Sino-Soviet disputes has made both sides more hardened. They seem to realize that being too close and too dependent on each other is dangerous. Now, the relationship between the two countries has reached a certain level of maturity, and people fully realize that their interests will not always be the same."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553827911460078099/

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