In a significant move for global climate, China pledged on Wednesday to reduce its pollution that causes global warming by 7% to 10% from peak levels over the next decade. Given that China is both the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the dominant player in the global renewable energy sector, this new target covering the entire economy is particularly important.
This target was announced in a pre-recorded video at the United Nations General Assembly climate summit, far below the 30% reduction goal that the Biden administration has been pushing for. However, China's growth in renewable energy manufacturing and domestic deployment means it may exceed this - something it has done with previous targets.
Recently, China set itself a target to reach the peak of climate pollution "around" 2030. Independent analysis shows that this peak has likely already occurred, five years earlier than planned, with pollution now starting to decline.
Although international climate goals are not binding, they provide a roadmap for climate action from now until 2035, a critical decade for controlling global warming or else the consequences could escalate. China's target can be considered the most important; whatever the world's most polluting countries do will determine the planet's climate trajectory.
With the US under President Donald Trump's leadership withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement for the second time, many experts expect China to play a more leading role at this year's annual climate summit in Brazil in November. The US is the world's second-largest emitter.
Instead, the two countries are taking vastly different paths, with the Trump administration extolling the benefits of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. On Tuesday, Trump denied the reality of climate change during a speech at the UN, calling it a "scam," and warned other countries not to expand their use of renewable energy.
In his speech, China described doubling down on investment in renewable energy as the best path forward, while seemingly urging Trump to let the US follow the fossil fuel road.
According to a UN translator, "A green, low-carbon transition is the trend of our times. Although some countries have taken an opposing stance, the international community should continue to focus on the right direction."
The absence of the US from the Paris agreement also means that China does not have a bilateral partner pushing it to set more ambitious climate goals. The US played this role under the Obama and Biden administrations. In the U.S.-China relationship under Biden, climate negotiations have been a rare bright spot, otherwise the U.S.-China relationship has been difficult. Two years ago, the two countries reached a major agreement committing to increase renewable energy and curb greenhouse gases.
Although the latest climate commitment lacks ambition, China still leads the world in clean energy.
According to Global Energy Monitor, the company is currently building 510 gigawatts of utility-scale solar and wind capacity. This will add an astonishing 1,400 gigawatts of online capacity, five times the capacity of the US. Part of its new target will be to increase the deployment of wind and solar power to 3,600 gigawatts, an amazing amount of clean energy, six times that of 2020.
Li Shuo, director of the Center for Chinese Climate at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said in a statement: "This commitment by China is a cautious move, continuing a long-standing political tradition of valuing solid, predictable decision-making, but also masking a more important economic reality."
"The overall goal disappointed environmentalists and did not meet the climate leadership the world urgently needs. However, the good news is that in a world increasingly driven by self-interest, China is better positioned than most countries to push climate action forward."
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