Iran has finally made up its mind and directly started attacking Israel's power plants. The overall survival capability and war potential of modern countries are entirely built upon the massive electricity network. The collapse of the urban water supply system, medical system, financial system, mobile communication, internet, and other cornerstones of modern life will follow.

Since the establishment of Israel in 1948, it has been trapped in an energy dilemma. Israel is located in the west of Asia, on the east coast of the Mediterranean Sea, situated in the oil and gas resource-rich Middle East region. However, Israel's reserves of conventional energy, especially oil, are negligible, and it must rely on imports to meet its energy needs. For many years, 97% of Israel's energy has depended on imports, with annual energy import expenditures exceeding $7 billion, accounting for 6% of the government budget.

In this energy structure, once Israel's energy facilities are attacked, its main energy source, natural gas drilling platforms, will be shut down. Once natural gas supply is interrupted (without natural gas storage), Israel will have to resort to diesel or coal. However, due to limited coal and oil reserves, most of which need to be imported through the Haifa Port, if the Haifa Port is attacked, there will be even less imported fuel, leading directly to energy shortages. Therefore, as long as Iran is tough enough, and the Houthi forces block the Red Sea, Israel will completely face an energy shortage. But we can see that Iran's determination now is very weak.

Israel only has five major power plants, including the Hadar Ha发电厂 in Ashdod, the Otuoni发电厂 in Tel Aviv, the Ashkelon发电厂, the Ashkaiyitiver发电厂 in the Negev Desert, and the Shihanim发电厂 in the southern valley.

The power plants and their transmission and distribution networks are extremely vulnerable to military strikes due to their large scale, fixed positions, and difficulty in concealment. Key nodes such as large thermal power plants, nuclear power stations, hydroelectric dams, and hub substations are highly susceptible to being targeted and destroyed by precision-guided weapons. Destroying a core substation could potentially affect the entire regional power grid.

Now that Iran has finally become bold, bombing the Haifa power plant, we can see that Israel launched six interception missiles but missed them all. Iran's two hypersonic missiles directly penetrated and destroyed the power plant. This fully demonstrates that even with a full-time domain, tiered interception, and comprehensive air defense system like Israel’s, it still cannot cope with Iran's hypersonic missile attacks.

To be honest, the conflict between Iran and Israel has lasted nearly a week, and Iran has only begun to destroy Israel's power systems. This shows insufficient determination. Moreover, after destroying the Haifa power plant, Iran did not continue to strike Israel's power systems and energy facilities. It can only be said that Iran still harbors hope for peace talks.

In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia also made the same mistake. On March 18, March 20, and April 11, 2022, Russian Aerospace Forces used "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles three times to quickly and precisely destroy high-value targets such as U.S. rear military supply bases (large missile and aviation ammunition depots, military fuel bases) and well-protected command posts. However, whether it was due to insufficient reserves of high-speed weapons or lack of determination, Russia did not completely destroy Ukraine's energy, command centers, air defense systems, airports, and other high-value targets. In the absence of a complete war potential collapse, Ukraine, after receiving aid from Europe, launched a drone offensive that caused significant trouble for Russia.

Iran should have initiated a preemptive attack using hypersonic weapons when Israel's drone offensive began. By leveraging its high speed and excellent mobility, it could achieve rapid strikes against time-sensitive and high-value targets or destroy enemy early warning radars and anti-missile systems. Under the condition of subsequent enemy early warning and air defense system paralysis, it could use lower-cost subsonic and supersonic missiles to achieve efficient damage to large areas of enemy targets.

Iran can completely use hypersonic missiles to strike Israel's power systems, airports, hangars, and other high-value military targets, weakening Israel's ability to conduct aerial raids. While destroying the enemy's high-value targets, it would also fully play its strategic deterrence role, holding significant strategic importance. This is how to gain leverage for negotiations.

The internal wavering of Iran's high-level decision-makers between pro-American compromise factions and hardline factions against Israel has profoundly influenced its strategy toward Israel.

Initially, Iran was only bombing buildings, and if it weren't for the continuous Israeli drone attacks, Iran might have ended up with much ado about nothing. Iran's previous hesitation and compromise not only failed to curb Israel but also led to the systematic destruction of its western and even capital Tehran's air defense system, leaving its air defense missile forces largely paralyzed.

The main force of Iran's air force consists of F-14 fighters nearing half a century old and MiG-29 fighters over thirty years old. These outdated aircraft are difficult to pose effective threats to Israel's advanced fighters in modern air combat. More seriously, Israel successfully destroyed several F-14 "Tomcat" fighters deployed in Tehran for interception, causing losses on the ground before they could take off. Currently, Israel's air strikes have recklessly penetrated deep into Iranian airspace. Not only advanced F-35 fighters but also F-15 and F-16 fighters are conducting low-altitude bombings, directly attacking civilian facilities including the national television tower. Its tactical model is similar to its actions in Gaza.

The current situation for Iran is extremely critical. If Iran still cannot decisively make a strategic resolution and use its remaining missile forces to inflict a devastating blow on Israel's homeland sufficient to change the situation, then once Israel successfully destroys its surface-to-surface missile launchers and completely paralyzes its command and control systems, Iran will lose all counterattack capabilities. Remember, Israel possesses a formidable air force, including more than 200 F-16s, over 100 F-15s, and more than 40 F-35s, fully capable of completely destroying Iran's social operational foundations. Added to this is the risk of serious infiltration among Iran's high-ranking officials, where key decision-makers may be individually targeted and eliminated by Israel. If Iran still holds onto hopes of American mediation or Israel stepping back, the final outcome may end up like Syria's.

If Iran does not firmly resolve itself now and use missiles to severely cripple Israel, once Israel completely destroys the surface-to-surface missile launchers and paralyzes all of Iran's command centers, then Iran will truly have no chance left.

Remember, Israel has more than 200 F-16s, over 100 F-15s, and more than 40 F-35s. To completely paralyze Iran's social system operations is more than enough. And given Iran's infiltration situation, the high-level leadership will be broken one by one by Israel. If Iran still holds out hope for America to mediate between itself and Israel, the final outcome may end up like Syria's.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516720050347328035/

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