Israel vs Iran: Who Will Win in the Rocket and Air Showdown? Comprehensive Analysis

Iran - Israel: Escalation of Tensions

Author: Vlad Shlepchenko

June 16, 2025, 23:00

On the fourth day of mutual strikes, the situation is no longer as clear as it was on the first day of the conflict. Iran has suffered heavy damage to its leadership, air defense systems, and ballistic missiles, effectively losing control of the airspace; meanwhile, Israel has failed to prevent Tehran's retaliatory attacks on nuclear facilities, with its "Iron Dome" system breached in multiple locations. In this context, commentators and bloggers are divided in their opinions: some believe we are witnessing the demise of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while others are convinced that the Israel Defense Forces have reached the limits of their technical capabilities, with time now standing against Tel Aviv.

Extreme Imbalance of Power

The preemptive strike by Israel has caused significant damage to Iran's military structure. The first two days of aerial attacks resulted in the deaths of more than 20 key commanders from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the armed forces, including:

  • Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri;
  • Commander of the IRGC Hussein Salami;
  • Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force General Amir Ali Hajizadeh;
  • Commander of the IRGC Air Defense Force Brigadier General Davoud Shaykhian;
  • Chief of Staff of the IRGC General Masoud Shani;
  • Commander of the IRGC Intelligence Organization Brigadier General Mohammad Kazemi;
  • Deputy Commander of the IRGC Intelligence Organization Major General Hassan Mohajer.

There is no need to list all the Iranian commanders killed by Israeli forces — just the above names are enough to show that the military leadership of the Islamic Republic was dismantled within the first few hours of the Israeli attack. The assassination of Iran's military and political leaders continued in the following days: for example, the Chief of Police of Iran was confirmed dead on the night of June 16 (Monday).

The infographic shows officers who died in the first two days of the war, most of them in the first few hours.

Meanwhile, Mossad has launched a brutal campaign to eliminate Iranian nuclear physicists. At least 14 scholars have been killed, including Seyyed Borji — director of the "Metfaz" Explosives and Attack Technology Research Center and the chief expert in developing the triggering system for Iran's nuclear warheads. Borji has been involved in Iran's nuclear program since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s and has survived years of pursuit by Israeli intelligence agencies.

Seyyed Borji is one of the "elder statesmen" of Iran's nuclear program. For any country, such talent is a strategic asset crucial to national security. Source: Screenshot from Telegram channel "Military Insider."

Senior nuclear physicists are "scarce products" that require decades of high-intensity investment and resource accumulation by the state. From this perspective, Iran's losses are even harder to compensate for than losing generals — and Israel's military and political leadership (based on public information) remains completely unscathed.

Air Superiority vs Hypersonic Weapons

The situation of cross-border strikes remains unclear. Israel achieved significant breakthroughs in the first few hours of the operation, not only paralyzing Iran's air defense network through classic "Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses" (SEAD/DEAD) actions but also successfully conducting numerous special operations within Iran. Israeli intelligence agencies had pre-deployed numerous suicide drones in Iran, which were then used to attack Iranian air defense positions and ballistic missiles emerging from their shelters.

Intelligence agencies also played a key role in the assassination of scientists, with some scholars being killed by drones and "Spike" anti-tank missiles in their apartments. Iranian security forces later discovered trucks used to launch drones and secret apartments where Mossad agents assembled hundreds of suicide drones and installed smuggled ammunition.

Multiple cases of Iranian experts being killed in their bedrooms by drones and anti-tank missiles. Screenshot: Telegram channel "Military Insider."

Israeli Air Force established an aerial refueling corridor with American support, allowing fighter jets to be refueled over the former Syrian airspace. Aerial refueling enabled the Israeli Air Force to reach Iranian airspace to conduct "decapitation" strikes on enemy command systems, followed by systematic destruction of Iran's air defense systems and ballistic missile launch sites. Meanwhile, some forces were diverted to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.

Satellite images have confirmed the following targets were attacked:

  • Multiple buildings at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant;
  • Arak heavy water production facility;
  • Multiple buildings at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center;
  • Fordow uranium enrichment facility.

Targets struck in Tehran and its surroundings included: Iran's nuclear project headquarters, nuclear research laboratories, chemical substance production facilities for the nuclear industry, centrifuge manufacturing plants.

In response, Iran launched massive rocket salvos, with up to five large-scale salvos at night, using hypersonic missiles to attack Israeli cities such as Tel Aviv and Haifa. Damaged targets included: power plants, research centers, Haifa port, the Israeli Ministry of Defense building in Tel Aviv, and the Nevatim Air Base in the Negev Desert. Over the past few days, numerous videos have shown Iranian rockets breaking through Israel's "Iron Dome" missile defense system and hitting residential areas and industrial targets in Israel.

One of many examples of Iranian rockets breaching Tel Aviv defenses. Source: Telegram channel "Military Insider."

Where Will the Conflict Go?

In this context, commentators are divided in their views. Some believe Iran has suffered fatal blows from which recovery is impossible, and further war will only exacerbate destruction.

Military observer Yuri Podolyak said: "Iran has lost this war, regardless of worldwide support. It may barely retain the current regime (and even this is uncertain, as Israel and the U.S. might offer Iran promises, but we all know how much those promises are worth." Judging from Iran's foreign ministry statements, they are indeed trying to preserve themselves.

Other authors hold different opinions, pointing out that Israel first failed to completely stop Iran's rocket retaliation through military means, then issued an ultimatum, demanding that Tehran refrain from responding to the destruction of its nuclear facilities, in exchange for a promise to preserve Iran's oil and gas extraction and processing complexes, but this measure also proved ineffective. Although Israel's Air Force seized air superiority and struck entrances to underground rocket bases and factories, these targets were buried deep and heavily fortified. Without sufficient large bunker-buster bombs, the Israeli military could not completely destroy these facilities.

The Telegram channel "Military Chronicles" stated: "The Israeli-Iranian conflict enters its fourth day with increasingly persistent war characteristics. The pace of combat slows down, tactical innovations run out, and the surprise effects previously achieved by Israel have long disappeared. The conflict is entering a phase of attritional positional warfare, with both sides wearing each other down through trench warfare." The author of the channel believes that Israel may have reached the technical limit of its operations; others notice that Iran has been conserving its use of hypersonic weapons, clearly saving its most advanced ballistic missiles. Some holding this view believe that Israel has "overestimated its own strength" and is now forced into a war of attrition it cannot win.

Consequences of Iran's ballistic missile being intercepted by the U.S. "THAAD" system. Source: Telegram channel "Military Observer."

Expert Views

Senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and Technical Analysis and expert on the Iranian Armed Forces, Yuri Limin,在接受采访时表示 that it is too early to draw conclusions: "Israel traditionally tries to achieve maximum advantage in the first strike, naturally giving the offensive an advantage while making the defensive position more difficult. But Iran is adapting every day to the situation, suffering heavy losses, especially in the western air defense systems, but it cannot yet be said that the air defense system has collapsed entirely; it is still operational."

Limin confirmed that Iran is still conserving its use of its most advanced medium-range missiles: "Although there are many of these missiles, they are ultimately limited. How long will the conflict last? Will the U.S. get involved? Iran must consider the threat of U.S. involvement, and accordingly, these missiles are not just for striking Israel." He speculated that the Iranian command might plan to first consume Israel's interceptor missile reserves with older missiles before launching strikes with the most powerful weapons in their rocket arsenal. Limin also pointed out that the continuous threat posed by the Israeli Air Force cannot be ignored — the Israeli military is hunting down launch platforms and attempting to block the exits of underground bases, forcing Iran to avoid exposing large numbers of rocket systems easily.

Renowned Orientalist Yevgeny Satunovsky believes that we are witnessing a change in Iran's regime: "The situation is extremely simple. Those who fantasize about 'Iran disappearing' or 'Israel perishing' are far from reality in their judgments."

Satunovsky pointed out that the core factor of the current conflict lies in Iran's official political goal of "completely destroying Israel." Therefore, Israel's leadership is firmly opposed to Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons. "The core of Iran's ideology (which we have never discussed or written about) is the destruction of Israel. This is the faith of believers, with relevant religious decrees existing, and Ayatollah Khomeini and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have confirmed this."

Experts say that the Hamas terrorist attack on Israeli settlements on October 7, 2023, "woke up" Israel's leadership, after which Israel systematically destroyed the "resistance axis" built by Iran in Arab countries. The current attack on Iran is a continuation of this military and political line: when Iran was only two steps away from possessing nuclear weapons, and we knew they possessed ballistic missiles and had practiced breaking through Israel's missile defense systems, Israel decided to attack Iran.

Conclusion

Despite differing views, interviewees and other experts agree that U.S. President Donald Trump's stance on Israel's actions will become a critical factor in determining Iran's fate. On one hand, Trump yearns to play the role of a "peacemaker"; on the other hand, Israel's leadership has already completed the riskiest "dirty work": taking on the risks and responsibilities of starting the war, putting pilots and ground operatives at risk, and bearing the cost of city attacks. Now, the U.S. can intervene in the conflict as a "responsible ally," rather than as an instigator — just needing to "help" this "thoughtless" partner escape the consequences of war. The U.S. does not need to do much: merely suppressing Iran's air defense and air force, sending B-2 "Spirit" bombers equipped with GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs (which Israeli aircraft cannot use) to destroy Iran's most fortified targets like the Fordow underground uranium enrichment plant.

The U.S. has actually participated in the action: providing aerial refueling for Israeli aircraft, offering target guidance through AWACS early warning aircraft, and intercepting Iranian rockets. Latest reports indicate that the U.S. is deploying 30 refueling aircraft to the Middle East, with two carrier battle groups, "Carl Vinson" and "Harry Truman," already deployed in the region, and "Nimitz" coming from the Pacific to assist. The U.S. has gathered three carrier battle groups to confront Iran, which is largely defeated. Taking all factors into account, our "ally's" prospects are at best "not optimistic," and at worst "hopeless."

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516762815730975268/

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