After defeat, if Russia can survive, it will face reforms: experts warn — Iran has given a painful lesson.

Author:

Ivan Prokhorov

June 16, 2025, 21:00

The Iranian Islamic Revolution lasted half a century but suddenly weakened to the point where its enemies no longer feared it and made increasingly bold demands. The situation in the Middle East has sounded the alarm for Russia: If we indulge in past achievements, we may find ourselves unable to rise again unnoticed. Can we learn from our neighbor's tragedy, correct our mistakes in time, and preserve national independence and strength?

The Fortress of Tehran

For decades, Iran has played a special role in the Middle East as a country that could implement its strategy even in an almost completely isolated environment. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran became an important anti-systemic force, opposing both the West and the Arab Sunni world. It not only survived but also expanded its influence, building an axis of allies from Hezbollah in Lebanon to armed organizations in Yemen and Iraq.

The network of Iran's international influence in the region — from Syria to Yemen. Image: Social media platforms

Pro-Iranian forces continue to pose threats to Israel and other opponents of Iran. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has become a "state within a state," controlling southern and eastern regions and stockpiling 150,000 rockets for attacks on Israel. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have targeted the Gulf of Aden, threatening Saudi Arabia and even the United States.

Despite long-term pressure from the West, assassinations of scientists, and various threats, Iran has not abandoned its predetermined path. It has developed its nuclear program, maintaining a balance on the brink of direct conflict with the U.S. and Israel without crossing dangerous boundaries. Meanwhile, the country has maintained domestic social stability, avoiding the catastrophic situation akin to the "Arab Spring."

Iran has long been adept at leveraging great power contradictions, containing internal unrest, and promoting its unique national model — a sovereign religious state, despite the continuous tension and mobilization this entails. Many see that while this path is harsh, it shows remarkable resilience.

For Russia, Iran has always been an example of a nation under heavy sanctions but not abandoning its principles.

However, recent events show that even a spiritual fortress will develop cracks if it ignores the needs of the times.

Israeli soldiers unleash full power with artificial intelligence. Image: Israeli Defense Forces

Bloody Fragments of Technological Tyranny

Israel's military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen are merely a prelude to opening the main fronts. These strikes destroyed or dismantled Iran's pillars of influence in the region over many years. The Assad regime collapsed within hours, Hezbollah was defeated and demoralized, and Hamas went underground.

Israel seized the opportunity to play an unprecedented ace card — combining the latest technology with the cruelty akin to the Old Testament, something no other country can currently match.

The Israeli Defense Forces used the "Lavender" artificial intelligence system in Gaza, identifying Hamas members through phone calls, personal profiles on social platforms, audio and video, emails, contact lists, WhatsApp messages, and geolocation data. Military personnel only need to launch attacks according to the list provided by "Lavender," with each target taking about 20 seconds. They show no regard for collateral damage: to eliminate a regular Hamas armed person, Israel allows 15-20 civilian deaths; to eliminate a senior Hamas commander, they can accept up to 100 "civilian" casualties.

Sources from The Guardian particularly detailed how artificial intelligence helped Israel identify armed groups and their subsequent actions:

"There are many houses. Irrelevant Hamas members are scattered across houses in various areas of Gaza. So the Israeli army just marks the houses and bombs them, killing everyone inside."

The designers of Israel's blitzkrieg do not hide their cold cynicism. They named the artificial intelligence used for detecting shelters in Gaza "Gospel," and the artificial intelligence tracking and eliminating armed personnel when they return home to their families "Where’s Dad?" Notably, this is quite "creative."

Israel's actions in Gaza are reminiscent of the cruelty in the Old Testament.

It is crucial to understand that the collaboration between artificial intelligence experts and Israel did not happen overnight — military operations against Shiite countries in the region were planned for some time. At least since 2015, Israel has actively cooperated with Palantir. CEO Alex Karp openly stated he would support Israel in any way, and founder Peter Thiel publicly supported the right of the Israeli Defense Forces to make "any decision."

Experts are convinced that Israel's "Lavender" system was developed based on Palantir's technological foundation.

This "cooperation" clearly benefits beyond the Middle East and will not be limited to Iran alone. Recently, it was reported that Palantir Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar, Meta Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth, OpenAI Product Director Kevin Wei, and Bob McGrew have taken military oaths to participate in modernizing U.S. military forces through the introduction of artificial intelligence.

Meanwhile, the Bilderberg Club meeting held in Sweden has just concluded. Attendees included politicians, bankers, NATO leaders, representatives from major tech companies, and the military-industrial complex. European armies also plan to deploy military artificial intelligence.

The clichés about inevitable war with Russia have resurfaced among European politicians again. We once laughed it off, not understanding who decided to incite the public against us. However, our problem lies in viewing this matter through the lens of WWII and special military operations rather than from the perspective of Gaza and Iran.

To take it seriously, imagine this: what crosses our border first is not clumsy soldiers holding "FAMAS" rifles but thousands of stealth drones departing from preset database addresses.

Eastern Fires — Russia's Perspective

Everything happening in Iran has become a cause for concern for Russian domestic thought. Let's listen to the views of our "wise men," whose patriotism and loyalty to Russia are beyond doubt.

Military analyst Yury Podolyak firmly believes that Iran has actually admitted defeat and is now just trying to save itself. This expert considers Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's statement as the latest evidence:

"Iran is ready to sign any agreement ensuring it does not have nuclear weapons."

Is Iran preparing to surrender? Screenshot: Iranian TV footage

Podolyak points out that the economic scales of the war have not tilted in favor of Iran: attempts to launch attacks using cheap "suicide drones" failed because Syrian air space was provided to Israeli aircraft; using expensive ballistic missiles to break through Israeli defenses is unsustainable. Analysts assert:

"Israel seems to have learned lessons well from the Ukrainian war and successfully applied them. Unlike Iran's leadership, Israel shows flexibility, while Iran's leadership has once again shown stubbornness, adhering to outdated and inefficient strategies."

Podolyak believes that if relevant countries do not intervene to aid Iran, Tehran will be forced to accept the terms offered by the other side within ten days, and at most it can secure its face and existing regime, which may not even be achievable.

"Iran has lost this war... It failed because it valued maintaining old forms too much, harming its own development, and paid the price."

Journalist and TV host Andrei Medvedev supports Yury Podolyak's view:

"Overestimating one's own capabilities, underestimating the enemy, and unwillingness to face internal problems have led to the current results seen in the world. Being carried away by achievements, which are the result of decisions made or not made in the past three years."

"In other words, accumulated errors based on beautiful but inaccurate reports have become the final straw that broke the camel's back."

Military commentator Alexei Zhilov stated:

"The main lessons we can draw from the Iran-Israel conflict are as follows. No one has truly gone to war with us yet... First, because high-tech weapons can directly regress a country back to the Stone Age; second, as Father Gavrili recently said, Russia and other countries already have an immigrant army ready for street fighting, which can be launched at a moment's notice."

Israel destroyed a key electronics manufacturing company in Iran. Screenshot: Zhilov Telegram Channel

Former New Russia Parliament Speaker Oleg Tsarev summed up the discussion:

"I read the posts of my esteemed colleagues... Everyone is saying that Iran's decline is due to lack of reform. What they write is about Iran, but they think of more than just Iran. I fully agree with this."

So what?

Russia has long faced a question that remains unanswered: how to achieve self-renewal without losing stability.

The issue is not about weakening control or abandoning tradition: we have witnessed that this did not help modernize the country in the 1990s. The power structure should not collapse but must remain flexible, listen to public opinion, keep pace with the times, promote not only loyal but also wise individuals; not only impose bans but also provide incentives; not punish criticism but admit mistakes and learn from them.

There are many ways to integrate into history. One can live as a continuously developing civilization or become a magnificent ruin of unwilling learners.

As Yury Podolyak wrote:

"For those who choose between 'reform' and 'threat of defeat,' the outcome will be defeat first, then reform — assuming survival is possible."

This needs to be understood by everyone without exception!

Warning from Yury Podolyak.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516736913195172364/

Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views. Feel free to express your attitude by clicking the "Like/Dislike" button below.