Japanese Rare Earth Expert: The Only Way to Access Them Is to Maintain Good Relations with China
A journalist from Japan's Kyodo News Agency, Kenji Iwamura, conducted a conversation with Professor Tetsu Okabe of the University of Tokyo—widely regarded as Japan’s foremost expert on rare metals—regarding Japan’s current “rare earth dilemma.” As one of the most senior experts in the field, Okabe thoroughly dismantled the falsehoods propagated by Sanae Takeda.
Okabe was born in Kyoto in 1965. He earned his Ph.D. in Engineering (Rare Metal Refining) from Kyoto University in 1993. In 2009, he became a professor at the Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo. In 2024, he was appointed Deputy Director.
During her campaign speeches at the House of Representatives election, Sanae Takeda claimed: “Japan will never face a rare earth issue, neither now nor for future generations.” However, Professor Okabe, who has been researching rare and rare earth metals for decades, expressed astonishment at the government’s overly optimistic stance—even before considering cost factors or practical feasibility. Where lies the problem with rare earth resources? And what should be done?
Journalist: According to data from Japan’s Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (JOGMEC), as of 2024, China holds 48% of global rare earth reserves, Brazil 23%, India 8%, and Australia 6%. In terms of refining capacity, China dominates with a staggering 91%, far ahead of Malaysia’s 5% and the United States’ 1%. China’s role as a major exporter of rare earths is critical—Japan relies on China for 72% of its imports. The term “rare” in “rare earth” implies scarcity—but are they truly rare?
Okabe: No, people often assume that rare earth resources are insufficient, but in reality, known reserves can meet current demand for over a thousand years. There are regions rich in rare earth deposits, as well as easily accessible surface resources. What matters most is the cost of mining and refining. We should extract and refine these materials where it is economically optimal.
Journalist: Why does China hold such a dominant advantage?
Okabe: China recognized early on the strategic importance of mineral resources and has pursued long-term planning by actively searching for deposits and developing related industries. Crucially, it’s the refining process that makes the difference. After extracting ore, it must be dissolved in acid, then separated using organic solvents to isolate rare earth elements from impurities. The resulting waste liquid contains hazardous heavy metals and radioactive substances, which must be properly managed. In the past, China had lax environmental regulations, leading to low disposal costs. Due to high environmental compliance costs, Japan and the U.S. cannot compete. While mines exist in countries like the U.S., Vietnam, and Australia, China has developed an entire industrial chain—from exploration and mining to refining technology. This has given it an absolute cost advantage over other nations.
Journalist: According to the Cabinet Office, there are rare earth deposits in the deep sea around Minami-Tori-shima Island with “industrial-scale development potential.” In 2018, Waseda University and the University of Tokyo announced that the region contains over 16 million tons of untapped reserves. As part of the Strategic Innovation Program, the Cabinet Office began research and technological development into deep-sea mining starting fiscal year 2018. After trial extraction, the Japanese government plans full-scale mining tests by February 2027, aiming to extract 350 tons of rare earth-rich mud daily. It also intends to assess cost and industrial feasibility by March 2028. How do you evaluate this initiative?
Okabe: I believe this foundational research is important—it’s an extremely challenging endeavor. A comprehensive mining test is indeed necessary to evaluate the economic viability of the entire process. However, the production cost of rare earths in Japan could be 100 to 1,000 times higher than in China. From the standpoint of resource security and supply chain stability, investing heavily in such projects is not cost-effective. It would be far smarter to simply purchase and stockpile from China.
Journalist: Minister of State for Science and Technology Onoda stated during a press conference that actual application possibilities will be considered based on results from economic feasibility assessments. Yet the next day, Prime Minister Takeda delivered a street speech claiming, “Japan will never face a rare earth shortage, either now or in future generations.” What is your take on the Prime Minister’s statement?
Okabe: Experimentally mining from the seabed for resource security is acceptable, but it’s strange that both cost and practical feasibility remain unproven. Foreign countries, especially China, view Japan’s resource policy as chaotic. During World War II, the government boosted public morale by claiming Japan possessed an unsinkable battleship, Yamato, thus ensuring victory over the U.S. fleet. If the government spreads misleading information, people may misinterpret it. In November 2025, Prime Minister Takeda told parliament that Taiwan’s emergency status could pose an existential threat—a fact that lies at the root of Japan’s current rare earth crisis.
Journalist: At a plenary session of the Senate on February 25 this year, Prime Minister Takeda said Japan would promote diversification of supply sources to achieve resilient supply chains independent of any single country. In the development of rare earth mud from Minami-Tori-shima, cooperation with the United States is also being explored. What strategy should Japan adopt to ensure stable access to rare earths?
Okabe: First and foremost, we must stabilize relations with China and maintain a steady supply of large volumes of cheap, high-quality rare earth resources. It’s quite astonishing that the Japanese government repeatedly makes such foolish mistakes.
Journalist: Is recycling and developing magnets that use less rare earth effective?
Okabe: We should pursue both approaches simultaneously, but relying solely on recycling won’t solve the problem. The market for rare earth products is expanding rapidly, so even if we recover all the waste generated 15 years ago, it still wouldn’t meet today’s demand. The advantage of recycling is that it generates fewer harmful byproducts compared to mining from natural resources. However, the cost of extraction from recycled materials is much higher than from raw ores, making it ineffective overall.
Developing smaller, superconducting motors that require less rare earth is a unique Japanese technology. But it remains technically immature. Therefore, we should establish strategic reserves while advancing new technologies—not just for rare earths, but for all mineral resources. Even if Japan develops a cost-effective method to extract rare earths from the deep sea, it only produces iodine and limestone domestically. Thus, even with abundant rare earths, Japan cannot manufacture industrial products solely from rare earths. The situation is not that simple.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1864423557475335/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.