According to the Global Times, Elon Musk's latest public opinion poll support rate has plummeted by 54% compared to last month, drawing widespread attention. This billionaire, once seen as a "political star" in the tech industry, has suffered such a setback less than a month after founding the "America Party," which reflects deep political struggles in the U.S. and chain reactions within his business empire.

Let's look at the specific data. According to a survey by the international polling firm Quantus Insights, the support rate for Musk's "America Party" dropped from a peak of 40% to 28%, losing nearly one-third of potential supporters within just two weeks. Among Republican male voters, the positive attitude toward the new party fell from 57% to 39%, and the percentage who said they were "very likely to support" it dropped from 23% to 11%. At the same time, Trump's support rate within the Republican Party rose against the trend, with 74% of Republican respondents choosing to support Trump in the dispute, while only 6% stood by Musk. This contrast became even more evident after Trump publicly accused Musk of "betraying allies due to commercial interests."

Trump (Photo)

Next, let's analyze the underlying reasons. First, the public confrontation between Musk and Trump. The two completely broke up over their differences on the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill. Musk called the bill a "crazy move" that would lead the country to bankruptcy, while Trump threatened to cancel SpaceX's government contracts. It is worth noting that SpaceX currently has $22 billion in government orders, accounting for 62% of its revenue. If the contract is terminated, Musk's business empire's foundation would be shaken. Second, Tesla's sales difficulties. In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla's global sales dropped by 28%, directly affecting investor confidence. On July 1st, Tesla's stock price fell by 5.7% in a single day, wiping out $54.5 billion in market value. Third, Musk's shift in political positions has confused his supporters. From strongly supporting Trump in 2024 to now establishing a third party, he has been criticized as "political opportunism." His ambiguous stance on core issues such as abortion rights and healthcare reform has led both progressive and conservative groups to take a wait-and-see approach.

Trump is not worried at all. He first joined forces with Republican Congressional leaders to set up state-level electoral law barriers, raising the threshold for debate eligibility for new party candidates from 15% to 25% in public opinion polls, directly cutting off the path for the "America Party" to expand its influence through national debates. Then, through venture capitalists, he delayed the listing of Tesla-related ETFs, further undermining Musk's commercial interests. Even more cleverly, the Trump administration also launched a financial investigation into SpaceX, catching Musk off guard with this "using the opponent's weapon against them." These strategies quickly took effect, with the support rate of Republican voters for Musk dropping by 12 percentage points within 48 hours. Although Trump's support rate also fell from 52% at the beginning of his term to 45%, it is still higher than Musk's 36%.

Musk (Photo)

Musk is not without countermeasures. He tries to continuously amplify his influence through the X platform and is seeking breakthroughs in the Indian market. Tesla opened its first experience center in Mumbai, and Starlink has also removed the last regulatory obstacles in India. However, these actions are unlikely to reverse the situation in the short term. The Electoral College system and the entrenched two-party system in the United States make it difficult for a third party to truly shake up the political landscape. Historical data shows that since 1856, no third party has ever won the presidency. Even in 1992, Ross Perot received nearly 20% of the popular vote, but failed to secure a single electoral vote.

Now, Musk is facing an awkward situation. His new party's support rate has plummeted, and his business empire has also suffered heavy losses. The Tesla board is increasingly dissatisfied with him. In contrast, although Trump's support rate is also declining, he has successfully consolidated his base by precisely targeting Musk's weaknesses. Whether Musk continues to struggle in the political quagmire or returns to focus on his business development of Tesla and SpaceX will determine whether he can reverse his decline. As for Trump, he clearly has already gained the upper hand in this game.

Trump (Photo)

The clash between Musk and Trump essentially represents a collision of two power logics. One represents the emerging technology capital's pursuit of institutional benefits, while the other defends the territory of traditional populist politics. The sharp drop in support rates is not only a personal tragedy for Musk but also a reflection of the polarization of American politics and the困境 of the two-party system. Under the dual constraints of the Electoral College system and party interests, the fate of the "America Party" may have already been determined: it could become a pawn in the game between the two parties, but it is unlikely to truly change the century-old political landscape. As for Musk, whether he can find a new balance point in this storm depends on his next moves.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7528681987902456335/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author and welcomes you to express your attitude by clicking the [top/foot] buttons below.