Progress in Iran-Oman negotiations raises hope for reopening of the Strait of Hormuz?
With progress emerging in Iran-Oman talks, could the Strait of Hormuz be on the verge of reopening?
According to multiple media outlets including The New York Times and the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), on the 4th, Iran's Foreign Ministry, Qatar's Foreign Ministry, and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio confirmed that negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are making headway.
The New York Times reports that a potential agreement might involve ships entering the Strait via the northern route controlled by Iran and exiting through the southern route managed by Oman. Iran would collect a "service fee" and share the revenue with Oman. However, prior to this arrangement, both sides will first agree on a temporary arrangement lasting up to three months.
From the U.S. media’s description, the negotiation objectives between Iran and Oman appear to largely revert to the framework previously seen in the U.S.-Iran memorandum: Iran opens the strait first, charging no fees for the initial 60 days, after which discussions on collecting the "service fee" would follow.
If The New York Times’ report is accurate, we may soon witness a narrative battle where each side presents its own version: Trump might seize upon the temporary arrangement between Oman and Iran as a “diplomatic victory for the United States” and claim Iran has made significant concessions.
Given that it is already August, if the temporary arrangement between Iran and Oman truly lasts three months as reported by American media, its expiration date would conveniently coincide with the U.S. midterm elections. Thus, Trump’s strategy may be: make some concessions initially, allow Iran to open the strait for two to three months, then after the midterm elections, find an excuse to abrogate the agreement and resume pressure tactics.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1872659736331274/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.