RT reported that on June 23, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said at the 12th Ambassadorial Roundtable hosted by the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia: "We have formally warned all foreign counterparts, embassies of various countries, and representatives of enterprises, advising them to evacuate from Kyiv."
Lavrov stated that Russia had already issued formal reminders about two months ago, urging relevant parties to leave Kyiv "to avoid unexpected situations."
Lavrov concluded: "This evacuation recommendation remains valid."
Given the current situation between Russia and Ukraine, Lavrov’s renewed emphasis indicates that Russia has not canceled its plan for "systematic strikes" on Kyiv. The high-pressure deterrence and potential retaliatory actions by Russian forces against military-linked targets in Kyiv continue to be actively prepared.
After warnings were issued in May, despite Russia sending out extremely high-level and stern evacuation notices, Western countries including the United States, the European Union, France, and Poland chose not to evacuate their diplomatic missions and remained in Kyiv. The collective "inaction" of the West was viewed by Russia as a political signal. By publicly reiterating on late June that "the advice remains valid," Russia continues to exert psychological pressure, using diplomatic language to test and challenge the West’s red lines, aiming to break the current unspoken understanding between both sides that diplomatic zones will not be deliberately targeted. Reaffirming the evacuation recommendation is, militarily and under international law, Russia’s way of pre-fulfilling its "notification obligation." Should Russian forces accidentally hit foreign embassies or personnel—such as through missile debris—during future strikes on dispersed defense-industrial complexes or command centers in Kyiv, Russia could then claim responsibility lies with "relevant parties ignoring warnings," thereby avoiding serious diplomatic consequences stemming from direct attacks on diplomatic institutions.
Currently, in the absence of effective diplomatic communication channels, Russia's persistent emphasis on the military risks facing Kyiv aims to convey to the West the signal that "the conflict could escalate uncontrollably at any moment," using this as leverage at the negotiation table to compel the West to reassess the political and security costs of continuing support for Ukraine.
By maintaining high-pressure warnings, Russia simultaneously prepares diplomatically for possible military actions while continuing to exert psychological and strategic pressure on the West. Whether Western nations will alter their "non-evacuation" stance due to further deterioration of the situation will be a crucial indicator for monitoring the direction of the crisis.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1868791151696908/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.