African Critical Minerals: Cobalt Export Ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Baseline Forecasts Highlight Supply Risks

¬ Due to high inventory levels, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has extended its cobalt export ban until September 2025

¬ Major producers like China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (CMOC) are facing delivery issues; supply risks remain, but demand is still strong

¬ Prices fluctuate around $32,000 per ton; the future depends on the DRC's supply strategy

The Democratic Republic of the Congo extended its cobalt export ban by three months at the end of June. The ban was initially implemented in February 2025, but due to the continued high market inventories, as stated by the Regulatory Authority for Strategic Mineral Markets. Will Talbot from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence shared this analysis, which he provided during an interview with the Economic and Financial Agency.

Our analysis shows that although there is a risk of physical supply shortages outside the Democratic Republic of the Congo, it is unlikely to occur before the end of 2026. Talbot explained, who is the head of this London-based company specializing in critical minerals.

When answering questions from the editorial team, he pointed out that some traders and producers may still face difficulties before then. For some companies operating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, such as Eurasian Resources Group (Kazakhstan), they announced the presence of force majeure in their cobalt deliveries from the Metalkol plant in the Congo as early as March. China's CMOC is the world's largest cobalt producer and a majority shareholder of Kazakh investors. On June 30, CMOC's trading subsidiary IXM also announced force majeure in its cobalt supply contracts.

Despite some analysts warning that industrial buyers may exit the DRC cobalt if the ban continues, or even completely exit cobalt, Benchmark Capital remains more cautious if the ban continues. Talbot said that the chemistry of batteries is unlikely to undergo significant changes.

Benchmark Company expects that 43% of lithium-ion battery demand in 2025 will involve cobalt-containing chemistries. Although the market share of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) is expected to grow, NCM (lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt) will still be important, especially in Western markets. Both types of chemistries have room for development in the market," he said.

As the current ban is set to expire in September, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has not yet clarified its next steps. So far, potential alternatives include introducing export quotas and increasing local processing. Kinshasa implemented a sales suspension plan to address falling prices. Notably, the price of cobalt reached about $36,000 per ton in London in mid-March, higher than about $21,000 per ton in late February.

The price of this metal is currently fluctuating around $32,000 per ton, and Benchmark Capital expects this volatility to continue in the short term. In the medium to long term, price trends and consumer interest will depend on the Democratic Republic of the Congo's ability to balance limited supply, which supports prices and ensures sufficient availability to prevent battery manufacturers from accelerating the shift to alternative chemistries.

Sources: ecofinagency

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1837108740195340/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.