【Text by Observers Network, Qi Qian】 Recently, the United States reached a mineral agreement with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), aiming to counter China in the critical mineral supply chain.

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post published an article on July 2nd, stating that copper is becoming a core element in the green energy transition, following lithium and cobalt. Currently, China is heavily investing in mining and processing facilities in Africa. Data shows that Chinese companies dominate DRC's cobalt and copper projects, with 76% of the country's new capacity added over the past seven years coming from Chinese projects.

Some Chinese analysts have warned that Western companies show "little interest" in large-scale projects in the DRC, and the funds needed for its transformation will mainly come from China. "If future mineral agreements between the DRC and the U.S. push out Chinese investment, it could miss the best opportunity for the DRC to achieve widespread prosperity."

Michael Finch, head of copper research at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, pointed out that Chinese companies are aggressively advancing in the African copper sector.

Last year, Jincheng Mining acquired an 80% stake in the Lubambara Copper Mine in Zambia, planning to invest $300 million to restart and extend the mine's life, and another $500 million to develop new deep shaft ore deposits. Chinese enterprises such as China Nonferrous Metals Group also hold significant copper mine assets in Zambia. MMG, a subsidiary of China Minmetals Group, invested $1.9 billion to acquire the Komatipoort Copper Mine and promised to add another $700 million to double its production.

Finch noted that the DRC remains the largest source of copper for China in Africa. "The country has just surpassed Peru to become the world's second-largest copper producer," and its output is expected to continue growing until reaching a peak in 2028.

He pointed out that Chinese companies dominate the DRC's cobalt and copper projects, with 76% of the new capacity added over the past seven years coming from Chinese projects. Meanwhile, investment focus is shifting toward other copper-producing countries such as Zambia and Botswana. Trade data shows that refined copper exports from the DRC to China surged by 71% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 1.48 million tons.

Copper and cobalt producers in the DRC are mostly Chinese companies. Light gray represents "non-Chinese companies." Map by Financial Times

"Copper demand will surge in the next 25 years, and we are entering the 'Copper Century,' said Kai Xue, a lawyer in the China-Africa mining field. Although there are diverse global copper sources, the DRC and Zambia have the most potential for export growth," he said.

He pointed out that the DRC is one of the most promising new copper sources, having become the world's second-largest copper producer in 2024. Its output has tripled over the past decade, and sustained growth may help it enter the ranks of middle-income countries.

On June 27th local time, Rwanda and the DRC signed a peace agreement in Washington, USA, pledging to end a 30-year conflict and promote peace and stability in the Great Lakes region of Africa. However, the U.S. involvement clearly had ulterior motives. According to reports by U.S. media such as The Wall Street Journal on June 27th, this agreement was one of the key measures of the Trump administration to counter China in Africa.

The agreement involves opening up their mineral resources to American investments. It stated that the integration work focused on the critical mineral supply chain would "enable the two countries to establish partnerships with the U.S. government and investors under appropriate circumstances."

Video screenshot of Rwanda and the DRC signing a peace agreement in the U.S. on June 27th

Before the agreement was signed, the DRC's Minister of Mines, Kizito Pakambo, told the UK's Financial Times that the agreement with the U.S. would help "diversify our partnership" and reduce the country's reliance on China for exploiting its rich mineral resources.

In response, Xue pointed out that companies from the U.S., Canada, and Europe show "little interest" in large-scale projects in the DRC, and the funds needed for its transformation will mainly come from China. He warned: "If future mineral agreements between the DRC and the U.S. push out Chinese investment, it could miss the best opportunity for the DRC to achieve widespread prosperity."

Lu Kangyi, partner-in-charge of PricewaterhouseCoopers' China practice, stated that investments in mining industries such as copper and iron have always been an important part of China's global investments. He also pointed out that mineral resources have brought exploitation and corruption to African countries, but "genuine cooperation with China might change this situation."

He emphasized that as a developing country, China advocates a different path, guiding enterprises to invest in overseas projects that "directly improve local living standards" through "small and beautiful" policies. That is, supporting smaller-scale, low-risk, and profitable trade-related infrastructure projects.

In May this year, the website "World Politics Review" published an article analyzing that the U.S. has long-term trade relations with the DRC and often prioritizes obtaining critical minerals rather than good governance. Washington's commitment to "major investments driven by the U.S. government and private sector" is clearly aimed at challenging China's dominant position in the critical mineral supply chain.

"World Politics Review" believes that the prospects of mineral transactions need careful consideration. From the recent mineral agreement between Ukraine and the U.S., the DRC's desire to exchange minerals for U.S. military aid has a very slim chance of success, and the DRC should be prepared for similar outcomes.

This article is an exclusive contribution from Observers Network. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522455993494667811/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion below using the [Up/Down] buttons.