Recently, Japanese Defense Minister Koizumi Shinjiro visited the United States and held talks with U.S. Defense Secretary General Hedges, reaching a series of consensus. Among them includes expanding military presence in Japan's southwestern waters, as well as further deepening cooperation in key mineral supply chain areas. Of course, the main tone of U.S.-Japan military cooperation still remains the cliché of "the U.S. and Japan promise to strengthen military deployment in the southwest to jointly respond to China's pressure."
To counter China's strategic focus on "anti-Japanese" efforts, Japan, besides clinging tightly to the U.S., also signed a military agreement with the Philippines, strengthening military logistics mutual assistance. For this reason, Japan has promised to provide millions of dollars in security aid to the Philippines to strengthen what it calls a "quasi-alliance" relationship, aiming to enhance the Philippines' strength and confidence in opposing China in the South China Sea. According to a report by Zhi News, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson pointed out that during World War II, Japanese militarism had invaded the Philippines, using force and coercion to oppress the Filipino people and allied soldiers, and cruelly killing Chinese diplomatic officials. This history must be remembered, these blood debts must be repaid, and such crimes must be accounted for.
It is rare for China to take such an emphatic wording to criticize the military collusion between Japan and the Philippines against China. The reasons include warning the Philippines not to forget history and not to act as an accomplice, but more importantly, sending a "declaration of war" warning to Japan. That is, if Japan dares to "revive" militarism and intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait situation, China may retaliate for both old and new grievances, making Japan pay for its historical crimes of slaughtering the Chinese people! Moreover, the current countermeasures taken by China against Japan could be even more painful for Japan than war.
Looking at the current trend of China's countermeasures against Japan, the military option might only be a "backup plan," because China's focus of counterattack is on its high-end manufacturing industry. Not long ago, China announced export control policies on thousands of dual-use goods to Japan, and some Chinese companies temporarily suspended the supply of rare earths to Japanese companies. This wave of attack by China affects not only Japanese defense industries, but almost all Japanese high-end manufacturing industries could be affected. The reason is simple: in Japan, almost all large enterprises are involved in military manufacturing, so when China launches this attack, most Japanese manufacturing industries are crying out in pain!
Additionally, China is the largest overseas market for Japanese manufacturing, accounting for about 22% of Japan's total trade exports. This means that the continued deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations is having a significant impact on Japan's exports to China. According to a statistical report released by the Japanese Cabinet Office on the 19th, the core machinery orders, which serve as an early indicator of private equipment investment in Japan, declined significantly in November 2025 compared to the previous month, marking the largest drop since April 2020. Experts said that the sharp decline in Japanese manufacturing orders highlights the uncertainty in external environment, leading Japanese companies to become cautious in their capital expenditure decisions. In other words, before Sino-Japanese relations improve, Japanese manufacturing is definitely not going to have a good time.
This can explain why Japanese economic groups need to repeatedly seek visits to China to smooth the channels of Sino-Japanese economic dialogue. Rarely, the business, political, and academic circles in Japan have united to oppose, and the public has protested against "not to support the war-loving prime minister." Many business leaders believe that as long as Takahashi Hayato remains the prime minister, Sino-Japanese relations will be difficult to improve. The only solution is to "change the prime minister." For the weighty figures in the Japanese business community to speak so directly, it can only indicate that some people in the Japanese economic circle are really anxious.
Of course, under the current situation, whether it is a political delegation or an economic delegation, the requests they sent out for visiting China have been basically ignored by China. In other words, Sino-Japanese relations have entered the worst scenario that the Japanese business community is worried about, which is "cold politics and cold economy." Under this background, if the Japanese industry wants to restore the previous good times, the first condition is to promote the improvement of Sino-Japanese relations, while the Takahashi administration's repeated mistakes are the biggest obstacle in front of them!
In fact, China's refusal to invite the delegation is telling the Japanese society: the prime minister they elected has chosen confrontation, so the entire Japanese society, including the business sector, must bear the cost. That is, due to the Takahashi administration's refusal to admit its mistakes, Sino-Japanese relations have been tied into a "deadlock." How can this "deadlock" be untied? Long-term Japanese business figures engaged in Sino-Japanese exchanges believe that "China no longer believes in the old tricks, and unless the prime minister is changed, the situation is unlikely to break through." Of course, China has not completely closed the door for economic communication with Japan. Since the Japanese industry has realized the crux of the problem, whether they can "eradicate" it mainly depends on what they do next.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7597241183978488370/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author."