Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Sanae suddenly announced,

On January 19, in a meeting at the Prime Minister's Office with Tsuchii Yoshihisa, president of Keidanren, and others, Takahashi said: "We will work with like-minded countries to negotiate with China over its strengthened export restrictions on rare earths and other key materials; meanwhile, we urge China not to use them as a means of economic coercion."

However, Takahashi did not specify which countries would be involved.

In fact, China's recent strengthening of export controls on rare earths was not an abrupt move. On January 6, the Ministry of Commerce had already issued a notice clearly prohibiting the sale of rare earths, gallium, germanium, and other materials that can be used for both civilian and military purposes to Japanese military users or for uses that enhance Japan's military capabilities. The list included thousands of items, and the rules were clearly stated.

Later, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning also responded, stating that these measures were in accordance with laws and regulations, and were legal and proper. Why do this? It's because Takahashi made inappropriate remarks about Taiwan last November, saying that "the situation in Taiwan could be a matter of national survival crisis" for Japan, and later hinted at military intervention in the Diet. Such actions of interfering in China's internal affairs have inevitably led to a response from China.

Rare earths may seem unimportant, but they are essential materials for high-tech products and military equipment such as electric vehicles, semiconductors, missiles, and radars. How could China allow them to be used to harm its own national security?

Takahashi's claim of "economic coercion" sounds absurd. Japan itself is a veteran in export control.

Previously, Japan imposed semiconductor material export restrictions on South Korea, strictly controlling the export of critical materials such as fluorinated polyimide and photoresists. At that time, the South Korean semiconductor industry almost came to a standstill, suffering losses of $8 billion. But at that time, Japan never claimed to be "economic coercion." Now, China is simply managing strategic resources according to the rules, and Japan has become anxious. This double standard is too obvious.

More interestingly, when she mentioned "like-minded countries," she didn't even dare to name any specific countries. Previously, Japan did hold meetings with G7 countries to try to get everyone to reduce their dependence on Chinese rare earths. Countries such as the United States and Germany verbally supported it, but when it came to actually helping negotiate, none of them were willing to take the lead.

After all, other countries either have extensive trade relations with China and don't want to offend China for Japan; or they also rely on Chinese rare earths or other products, so how could they genuinely support Japan?

For example, although Germany proposed a "rare earth price floor mechanism," it was just talk. If the government really wanted to subsidize non-Chinese suppliers' prices, it's uncertain whether it could last long.

The current situation of Japan is essentially self-inflicted. Who else but themselves has relied so heavily on Chinese rare earths? Data shows that in 2024, 71.9% of Japan's imported rare earths came from China, especially high-end heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium, where Japan depends on China by nearly 100%.

These heavy rare earths are key to making high-performance magnets, which are essential for core industries such as new energy vehicles, precision machine tools, and robots. Japan spent 15 years trying to reduce its reliance, lowering the overall percentage from 90% to around 70%, but couldn't find alternatives for key heavy rare earths.

Now, Japan is trying deep-sea mining, testing the extraction of rare earth mud near the Ogasawara Islands, but the technology is difficult, the cost is high, and the environmental risks are significant. Commercialization would take at least more than ten years. They are also looking to collaborate with Australia and ASEAN countries to build alternative supply channels, but there are technical barriers in rare earth mining, separation, and purification, and the investment cycles are long, so they can't meet the needs in the short term.

Japanese companies are now feeling the pressure. China's control measures are not only stricter approvals, but also require detailed supply chain information, such as what products the rare earths are used in, who they are sold to, and whether they might be re-exported to other countries. Customs also conduct 100% box inspections, making it impossible to procure through third countries.

Many Japanese state-owned enterprises have already suspended signing new rare earth supply contracts with Japanese companies, and it's unclear whether existing contracts can continue. This directly leads to longer production cycles for Japanese companies, and the stock market has been affected. Companies like Shin-Etsu Chemical and Mitsui Chemical have seen their stocks fall to the limit, and Toyota and Honda's stock prices have also dropped significantly. Some people in the companies have openly expressed that this is a "desperate" situation.

Takahashi's call for negotiations now is more for domestic political considerations. Since she took office, her approval rating hasn't been very high, and her ruling coalition remains a minority in the House of Councillors, often facing obstacles in policy implementation.

Now, Japanese companies are panicking due to the rare earth control measures. She comes out and makes some hard statements, which can comfort the business community and also gain some votes through foreign tough rhetoric. There are even reports that she may dissolve the House of Representatives early for elections. At this time, bringing up China is to shift domestic conflicts. However, just shouting slogans won't help, and the actual problems cannot be solved. The difficulties of Japanese companies will only become more severe.

China has long said that these export control measures are not targeted at specific countries. As long as they are for legitimate civilian purposes, compliant export applications can be approved. China's actions are aimed at maintaining national security and sustainable utilization of strategic resources, fully in line with international practices.

If Japan really wants to solve the problem, it should not look for "like-minded countries" to exert pressure collectively, but first reflect on its own behavior, stop interfering in China's internal affairs on the Taiwan issue, and return to the correct track of the four political documents between China and Japan.

If it continues to adopt an adversarial mindset and stubbornly refuses to change, it will ultimately harm its own economy and corporate interests. After all, rare earths are in our hands, and the rules must follow ours. Trying to change the status quo through mere words and political maneuvering is unrealistic.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1854810211861511/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.