Hiroshi Hashimoto

A very interesting phenomenon, on the evening of January 19, Prime Minister Takahashi announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives in advance for early elections, and it seems that the direction of Japanese politics is undergoing a significant change.

Over the past three months, the "Takahashi Wind" has been almost unstoppable, the stock market has been rising, and support rates have been climbing, making the Japanese prime minister feel like he was "widely supported."

However, when she said she would hold early elections, this "beautiful" atmosphere was broken. The public opinion that previously supported her, except for the "loyalists" at the Sankei Shimbun, began to "expose" and "worry."

"Exposing" refers to the fact that Prime Minister Takahashi did not consult with the party's "senior figures" before deciding to dissolve the parliament and hold an election.

The Weekly Bunshun, which has been exposing the secret "relationship" between Prime Minister Takahashi and the Unification Church, even vividly described the anger of the largest supporter of the Takahashi administration, Deputy President of the Liberal Democratic Party, Masayoshi Sonoda. Moreover, the head of the party's affairs, the Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party, is also very dissatisfied, believing that an election without prior planning is equivalent to self-destruction.

However, on January 19, during the press conference announcing the dissolution of the parliament, they realized that the government was facing a huge crisis, and now might be the best opportunity.

Therefore, these formerly very dissatisfied "elders" suddenly began to say that holding an election at this time was an "intelligent" decision and firmly supported it. After all, they are all on the same boat, sharing prosperity and adversity together.

The leadership seemed to have no more opinions, and the grassroots of the Liberal Democratic Party began to "worry." They believed that holding an election under the current circumstances, although the Prime Minister's approval rating is very high, there is actually a risk of failure.

The Liberal Democratic Party not only failed to win a major victory in the election, but also lost 60 seats, becoming a minor party entirely.

The supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party in the small district where I am located told me that according to their statistics, more than 60% of the party's active members do not think the election is a good decision.

Because, holding the election now does not have sufficient reasons. The Prime Minister said the election was a way to confirm herself.

Now, Japan is ignoring various acts of harm to its ally, the United States, and relations with its largest neighbor are tense. The pressure on people's lives is very great, and strong measures are needed to get through the winter.

Prime Minister Takahashi not only ignored them and alleviated their pressure on life, but also asked them to go out voting in the dead of winter.

Prime Minister Takahashi was very angry when someone questioned her about lacking "righteousness." She believed that she decided to obtain the people's consent for the 2026 budget.

This answer made me laugh. The Liberal Democratic Party decides the budget by holding an election, not that Japan holds two elections every year (budget and additional budget).

Another important issue. Prime Minister Takahashi has a very high approval rating, but the Liberal Democratic Party's approval rating is not much different from that of the opposition parties.

In other words, Takahashi wants to win the election by relying on her "charm."

Using approval ratings to win elections has happened in the history of the Liberal Democratic Party, such as Koizumi Junichiro and Abe Shinzo's "assassin elections." That is, using their high approval ratings and influence to promote candidates they support, strike down internal opponents within the Liberal Democratic Party or rival opposition candidates.

This time, after Takahashi announced the early election, the Liberal Democratic Party suddenly had no voices of opposition, and the opposition party suddenly united. They actively proposed the slogan of "bread" (life) instead of "military" (war), which caused Takahashi's election strategy to fail prematurely.

Various dissatisfaction with life and reality will certainly lead to strong criticism of the government.

Even those who used to actively follow the Prime Minister will express their dissatisfaction. For example, many Japanese civil servants, January and February are the end of the fiscal year in Japan, and various tasks are piling up, and they have to prepare for the election in the cold winter. Their inner "resentment" comes from this.

In addition to the continuous reports by Weekly Bunshun mentioned above about the scandal between the Prime Minister and the Unification Church, there is also the retaliation from the Komeito Party, which was discarded by the Prime Minister and became an opposition party.

I personally experienced that the mobilization ability of Komeito Party supporters in the election, perhaps the candidates they themselves promoted cannot win, but in the election, if their candidate gets 1000 more votes, it is a huge "winning factor."

Since becoming the Prime Minister, Takahashi has always been criticized by the Liberal Democratic Party for choosing the Japanese Restoration Party instead of bowing to the Komeito Party, which was a mistake.

Why not choose the Komeito Party, because the Komeito Party opposes the tension in Sino-Japanese relations and requires resolving the "bread" (life) issues before "military" issues.

This position has naturally become an obstacle to the Takahashi administration. Because only by inciting "crises" can the Takahashi administration achieve its high approval rating.

I also thought of a more convincing reason for dissolving the parliament and holding an early election.

After provoking China, the Takahashi administration has always claimed that the reduction in Chinese tourists has little impact on Japan. The data at the end of December and the beginning of January seems to have not shown a sharp decline.

However, this year's Spring Festival is in mid-February, which is usually the off-season for Japanese tourism. In the past, the tourism revenue in January and February relied heavily on Chinese tourists. If the data showing the low number of Chinese tourists in late February comes out, it will definitely be a major blow to the Takahashi administration.

A similar case is the ongoing excavation of submarine silt in the Nishinoshima area. Under the publicity of the Takahashi administration, it seems that it can soon replace Chinese rare earths. In reality, commercial use will take another ten years, and the Takahashi administration, which is subject to "dual-use export restrictions," can only show impotent rage in the press conference, with no countermeasures at all.

When corporate dissatisfaction erupts, it will be the end of the Prime Minister's political life. Holding an election first to gain political resources is the real reason for the Prime Minister's decision to hold an election.

The saying goes, "Not beautiful in appearance, but beautiful in mind."

Prime Minister Takahashi dare not openly promote "proactive fiscal policy" (printing money indefinitely) or "amendment of security documents," which involve the fundamentals of Japan, because once these topics are involved, the government will inevitably fall.

"Proactive fiscal policy" is to issue bonds for military expansion and preparation for war, while the amendment of the security document clearly defines the legal basis for a war with China.

I am very curious, if Takahashi dares to go all out, why not set the election slogan as: "Support Takahashi for a war with China," which is very clear. She dares not do this; "hot talk" is okay, but she is actually very "cowardly."

Because no matter how she performs, various scandals cannot conceal the essence of the Takahashi administration: black money, religion, and the far right. But people need time to see this fact, which is why Takahashi violated her promise and suddenly held an early and hasty election.

On the Internet in Japan, there are countless posts supporting Takahashi and advocating a war with China. These people are the ones driving the Japanese public opinion, spreading anti-Chinese rhetoric, and inciting the voice that Japan can fight a war.

In reality, if you can't defeat Takahashi, and you win this election, these people will proudly say that it's a victory of the hardline stance against China.

Just like the previous "Go for Abe" movement, before the Japanese election campaign, some people intentionally spread the keywords "Go for Takahashi" and "War with China" on the Japanese Internet.

Under this background, how to prevent Japan from moving further to the right, and how to prevent Japan from sliding towards the edge of war, the only way is to reduce the number of seats of Takahashi supporters in the election and expand the number of seats of anti-war people.

Originally, the opposition parties, who were less influential due to the high support rate of Takahashi, have been forced to unite and shout the slogan of "bread" (life) instead of "military" (war).

If this election strategy succeeds, it will be a big blow to the "aggressive faction."

Because when it comes to elections, no party can beat Komeito, including the former allies, the Liberal Democratic Party, which is very "regretful" about Takahashi's abandonment of the Komeito Party.

Prime Minister Takahashi originally planned that the opposition parties would be ununited, and she had a high support rate. She would win a short battle in the absence of their preparations.

Now, a formidable opponent has emerged, along with an appealing election slogan. How could Takahashi not be shocked?

Therefore, at the press conference on January 19, she criticized the opposition parties for their unity for the election, while at the same time thanking the Komeito Party for their joint governance for nearly 30 years, sending subtle signals.

I want to say that the "military" election blueprint painted by Prime Minister Takahashi has been infuriated by the "bread" (life) blueprint of the opposition parties.

If the election results are not as expected, the Takahashi administration will surely exit, and the new administration will certainly be one that focuses on people's lives.

Even the Sankei Shimbun, which has always supported the Prime Minister, is full of suspicion. It is also wondering whether former Prime Minister Ishibashi and former Foreign Minister Iwata might join the "moderate coalition" camp of the opposition parties.

This election may be a watershed moment for the Abe political era (right-wing conservatism) in Japanese history. If the election is won, the conservative forces and the military expansionists in Japan will long dominate Japanese politics.

Conversely, if the opposition parties can counterbalance Takahashi's high support rate in the election, Japan's military expansion may slow down, and changes may occur within Japanese politics.

As the Prime Minister, Takahashi can decide to dissolve the parliament and gamble on Japan's fate to accelerate military expansion. However, it seems that the current situation assessment has made a "mistake."

It was originally thought that the election would be 100% smooth, but it could also end in a big defeat for Takahashi.

If I have to choose, the future will surely be a society without war and with a good life.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7597301220184769065/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.