Recently, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced via the social media platform "X" that Turkey will export a record-breaking 48 "Kaan" fighter jets (KAAN) to Indonesia within a ten-year period. This news quickly drew international attention. However, upon closer examination, we cannot help but raise a big question mark about Erdogan's move and wonder if he is once again showcasing his astonishing "boasting ability."
The "Kaan" fighter jet project was launched at the end of 2010 by the Turkish Aerospace Industries. It was not until February 2024 that the first flight was successfully completed. According to previous reports, the plan was to produce three prototype aircraft before 2026, with the second and third aircraft still in assembly. In terms of delivery schedules, the initial plan for the technical state of the "Kaan" Block-10 batch was set for completion and delivery to the Turkish Air Force in 2029. Although the Turkish Air Force later claimed to advance the first delivery to 2028, this adjustment itself was filled with uncertainty. After all, from the first flight to the official delivery to the military and forming combat capability, a large number of complex and rigorous testing and improvement processes are required, and any problem in any link could lead to a delay in the delivery time. Yet Erdogan confidently announced the export of 48 aircraft to Indonesia, which is hard to believe.
Looking at the export agreement itself, Erdogan did not disclose the specific amount involved in the agreement between the two sides, casting a veil of mystery over this agreement. Usually, such a large-scale fighter jet export agreement would be a highly focused factor due to its financial implications. The deliberate concealment this time has led people to speculate whether there are many variables in the details of the agreement. Additionally, the Turkish Aerospace Industries stated that the 48 fighters would be delivered within 120 months and equipped with domestically produced engines, including clauses for the transfer of aviation technology to Indonesia. However, Turkey's capabilities and stability in key technologies such as aviation engines have long been questioned. Completing such a large-scale delivery within the specified time and ensuring the smooth progress of technology transfer is undoubtedly a formidable challenge.
Looking back on Erdogan's past behavior patterns, his "grandiose statements" in foreign affairs and military fields are numerous, but the actual results have fallen short of expectations. For example, in Turkey's relations with Russia, Erdogan maintained a certain distance from Russia under pressure from the US and Western countries, then suddenly changed his stance and purchased the S-400 air defense system from Russia. During the Ukraine-Russia conflict, his position was also inconsistent. Such an indecisive diplomatic strategy has been criticized by outsiders as being motivated solely by short-term gains without long-term planning or stability. Domestically, Erdogan's "Erdogan Economics," which insists on cutting interest rates despite high inflation in an attempt to suppress inflation by increasing market consumption, although it had some effect in the short term, has brought many hidden risks to Turkey's economy in the long run, and the domestic economic situation remains severe.
This announcement by Erdogan to export 48 "Kaan" fighters to Indonesia is likely another unrealistic "boastful" act. Under the unclear progress of the "Kaan" fighter jet development, doubts about Turkey's own technical capabilities, and the ambiguity of the agreement details, rashly announcing such an export plan might be more about boosting his political support rate at home and demonstrating Turkey's so-called "defense industry strength" on the international stage. However, such actions based on unrealistic assumptions may ultimately result in Turkey suffering losses in international credibility and becoming a laughingstock in the international community.
Don't forget that Indonesians are still investing in South Korea's KF-21 fighter jets. If they were to purchase the "Kaan" fighter jets, which rely heavily on Western supply chains for their core technology, or even fighters that are difficult to form into combat-ready units, wouldn't it be considered foolish and wasteful?
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517600013514490403/
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