October 23, 2025, Issue No. 1077
Duty Editor: Lin Xila, Aslan
Review: Ye Weijie, Yu Wanlin
Executive Editor-in-Chief: Chen Zhuo
*To read today's newspaper, please follow the WeChat official account "South Asia Research Group"
Trends in major fertilizer prices in India in September 2025. Source of the picture: The Hindu
The Hindu reported on October 21 that the Indian fertilizer industry organization stated that China has suspended the export of several key fertilizers to India starting from October 15, which could lead to a 10%-15% increase in related products in India. Rajib Chakraborty, the national president of the Soluble Fertilizer Association of India (SFIA), revealed that China has again suspended the export of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate (TAMP), diammonium phosphate (DAP), and urea to India. Previously, the Indian media reported that China suspended the export of DAP to India in mid-2023, and in May-June 2025, it stopped exporting specialty fertilizers to India. After the meeting between the foreign ministers of China and India on August 19, China lifted the ban on fertilizer exports to India. Data shows that India imports 250,000 tons of specialty fertilizers from China annually, accounting for 95% of its total import of similar products, with 60%-65% concentrated in the winter sowing season from October of that year to March of the following year. Chakraborty said that India's supply of specialty fertilizers during the current winter sowing season is still relatively sufficient, but if the ban is extended beyond March 2026, it will have a significant impact on India's agricultural production. Currently, India is actively seeking alternative supply channels, but other countries' fertilizer production capacity may be difficult to fill the gap, and India itself cannot independently produce specialty fertilizers due to technical limitations, making it difficult to alleviate the supply pressure in the short term.
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Defense Minister of the Afghan interim government, Mullah Muhammad Yaqoob (left center), shakes hands with Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif. Source: X
The Diplomat reported on October 22 that the ceasefire agreement between Pakistan and the Taliban interim government of Afghanistan, mediated by Qatar and Turkey, is significant. Recently, Pakistan launched preemptive cross-border attacks against Afghanistan under the pretext of "combating terrorist organizations," leading to intense fighting. This is the most serious conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan since the Taliban took power in 2021. On October 19, Pakistan and Afghanistan signed a ceasefire agreement under the mediation of Qatar and Turkey, which has multiple significances: first, Pakistan successfully pushed the Taliban to commit to combating the TTP (Taliban's terrorist group) across the border. For a long time, Pakistan has been striving to urge the Taliban to acknowledge the threat posed by the TTP and its impact on bilateral relations. During the Doha negotiations, Pakistan forced the Taliban to agree to handle the TTP issue under the supervision of Qatari and Turkish intelligence officials. It is reported that the next meeting will be held in Turkey, where a framework may be established to monitor the Taliban's commitment to "combating the TTP." Second, Qatar has consolidated its position as a neutral peacebuilder, which is expected to enhance its influence in future negotiations and regional affairs. Third, Turkey can increase its influence in the Taliban's efforts to combat the TTP by leveraging its diplomatic trust with Pakistan and Afghanistan, as well as its rich counter-terrorism experience. For Afghanistan, if it fails to effectively address Pakistan's concerns, it not only harms its relationship with Pakistan but also damages its relations with Qatar and Turkey.
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Source of the picture: South China Morning Post
The South China Morning Post reported on October 23 that the recent defense cooperation among India, South Korea, and Australia has attracted attention. It is reported that the Indian Navy's stealth frigate INS Sahyadri arrived in Busan, South Korea, on October 13 to participate in the first India-South Korea bilateral naval exercise. Indian Defense Minister Rajnath visited Australia on October 9 to attend the India-Australia Defense Ministers Dialogue. Analysts believe that China may view such moves as "measures taken by regional countries to address the security vacuum in the Asia-Pacific in the context of the U.S. reducing its military presence," and interpret them as part of "a strategy to contain China." Experts at a U.S. think tank stated that such cooperation will strengthen India's security partner network in the Indo-Pacific region, while increasing tensions in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, prompting China to strengthen its military presence. In addition, agreements on submarine rescue and logistics directly enhance India's sustained operational capabilities in the Indian Ocean, challenging China's naval power projection and influence. Some analysts point out that India is countering China through small multilateral defense contacts, avoiding direct confrontation while expanding its defense footprint through joint exercises, logistics agreements, and technological partnerships, and demonstrating its active participation in shaping the Indo-Pacific security architecture. Lin Minwang, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, pointed out that such cooperation essentially addresses the strategic uncertainty of the U.S., and should not overestimate its actual impact.
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Source: Water Policy magazine (Note: Standard map processing according to Chinese regulations)
The Times of India reported on October 22 that thousands of people in Bangladesh gathered in Chittagong on October 19, demanding the interim government to immediately implement the China-supported Teesta River Master Plan, and insisting on Bangladesh's fair access to Teesta River water resources to protect national interests. The Teesta River has long been a focal point of water resource allocation negotiations between Bangladesh and India. Bangladesh accuses India of restricting the flow of the Teesta River during the dry season, causing severe shortages of irrigation and daily water use, and releasing water during the rainy season, increasing the risk of floods in Bangladesh. Therefore, they demand that India strengthen water resource management and achieve fair distribution to ensure sufficient water supply throughout the year. However, the current water resource negotiations between Bangladesh and India have stalled. In this context, the China-supported Teesta River Master Plan is seen as an alternative solution to bypass the Bangladesh-India water resource dispute, effectively addressing the water shortage in northern Bangladesh. The gathering in Chittagong was initiated by students from the Rangpur Division, condemning India's unfair water allocation and interference in Bangladesh's water policy. Participants stated that the Teesta River Master Plan will significantly promote agricultural development in northern Bangladesh, create jobs, and inject momentum into national economic growth. However, Sino-Bangladesh water resource cooperation has triggered strong "security anxiety" in India. Indian analysts pointed out that the Teesta River is close to India's Siliguri "chicken neck" corridor, and Bangladesh allowing China to participate in it poses a major security threat to India.
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S-400 air defense missile system. Source: Internet
The Economic Times reported on October 21 that India is making efforts to strengthen its economic and trade ties with Russia despite pressure from the Trump administration. Currently, India is diversifying its product structure for exports to Russia, especially strengthening exports in areas such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing. Data shows that non-energy exports from India to Russia continue to grow, particularly in heavy industry and high-value manufacturing, indicating that India is trying to reduce its dependence on a single market or commodity. For example, in defense cooperation, the Indian Air Force is considering purchasing missiles worth approximately 100 billion rupees (Rs 10000 crore) from Russia to equip its S-400 air defense systems, further enhancing its air defense capabilities. India and Russia are currently negotiating the procurement of related equipment, and the Indian Ministry of Defense may review the Air Force's proposal at the Defense Acquisition Council (DAC) meeting on October 23. Additionally, India has requested Russia to deliver the remaining two sets of S-400 air defense missile systems as soon as possible (note: India and Russia signed an agreement in 2018 to purchase S-400 air defense missile systems capable of equipping five squadrons; three squadrons have already been delivered and deployed in the direction of India-Pakistan and India-China, while the remaining two sets have been delayed for more than two years due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict). They are also exploring the possibility of purchasing more S-400 and S-500 air defense missile systems.
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Source: The Indian Express
The Indian Express reported on October 22 that the Modi government plans to intensify efforts to attract Indian diaspora talents back to India to alleviate the problem of brain drain in the technology sector and cultivate a local research and development ecosystem. The Trump administration's crackdown on U.S. higher education has raised concerns among researchers in the U.S. In this context, the Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser to the Prime Minister of India has convened meetings with the Department of Higher Education, the Department of Science and Technology (DST), and the Department of Biotechnology (DBT) to discuss specific plans for the talent recruitment program. According to sources, the plan initially prioritizes talents in 12-14 key fields such as science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, by providing opportunities for scholars in these fields to work at top institutions like the Indian Institutes of Technology, top research laboratories, and institutions under DST and DBT, to strengthen India's research ecosystem. It is worth noting that India still faces structural obstacles in attracting overseas talent back. First, the competitiveness of salaries is insufficient. Second, the effectiveness of the talent acquisition mechanism is poor. Public institutions in India lack experience in employing Indian expatriate talents, and bureaucratic procedures between government departments are cumbersome, limited research funding, and the lack of long-term contracts are hindering the return of talent. Currently, Indian officials are discussing issues such as intellectual property rights, research autonomy, and tenure mechanisms, and once the relevant proposals are finalized, they will be submitted to the federal cabinet for approval.
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Source: WeChat Official Account "Dream Back to Confusion"
The website South Asian Voices published an article titled "Nepal's Dilemma: Maintaining a Balanced Diplomacy with China and India While Preserving Its Sovereignty" on October 21. The author, Ammu S Anil, is a senior researcher at Jamia Millia Islamia University in India, and Sanoop Sajan Koshy is a doctoral student at IIT Madras.
In late August 2025, China and India announced the resumption of border trade at the Lipulekh Pass, which Nepal informed both China and India had seriously violated its territorial sovereignty, but received only a negative response from the Indian Foreign Ministry. Nepal's sovereignty interests were forced to yield to the bilateralism of the two neighboring countries. This incident proves that Nepal's multi-vector diplomacy strategy is flawed, making it impossible to rely on any one superpower to meet its key interests—whether to satisfy its territorial interests from India or to gain cross-border railway infrastructure from China.
Nepal-India territorial disputes date back a long time. In 1816, the Kingdom of Nepal and British India signed the Treaty of Sugauli, stipulating that Nepal would give up its claims to land west of the Kali River. There is a dispute between Nepal and India regarding the exact location of the source of the Kali River, which has led to a disagreement over the sovereignty of the Kalapani area where the Lipulekh Pass is located. After the 1962 Sino-Indian border conflict, India strengthened its military presence in the Kalapani area. At the end of the 20th century, India officially designated the Lipulekh Pass as a border trade port between China and India. In November 2019, India released a new official map unilaterally incorporating Kalapani and the Lipulekh Pass into Indian territory.
The resumption of border trade between China and India has adversely affected Nepal's economic interests. Direct trade between China and India may severely weaken the economic potential of the China-Nepal trans-border railway (the section from Gyirong to Kathmandu), weakening Nepal's leverage to secure favorable treatment from China, including loan and grant ratios, interest rate caps, procurement terms, etc. In the long run, Nepal will also miss the benefits of being a bridge for trade and transportation between China and South Asia.
The compromise reached by China and India on border trade at the Lipulekh Pass has weakened Nepal's diplomatic space, highlighting the flaws in Nepal's multi-vector diplomacy. Nepal has always tried to use multi-vector diplomacy to make China and India compete around it, thereby profiting from it. Nepal seeks Chinese investment, deepens relations with India, and opens up to the U.S., but ends up receiving no firm support from any superpower. In the absence of a multilateral framework in the South Asian region, regional powers focus on bilateral relationships, inevitably pushing smaller countries like Nepal further to the periphery. Nepalese policymakers need to re-evaluate whether their multi-vector diplomacy policy is indeed effective. Although this strategy has maintained Nepal's national autonomy and served its development goals in the past, it has now weakened Nepal's ability to obtain external support, especially in matters concerning territorial sovereignty.
*To read today's newspaper, please follow the WeChat official account "South Asia Research Group"
Editor of this issue: Cao Yincang
Reviewer of this issue: Shan Minmin
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