Data released by China's General Administration of Customs on October 14 showed that, measured in U.S. dollars, China's exports surged 36.3% year-on-year in September, while imports also accelerated, rising 31% compared to the same period last year—the fastest growth in seven months. The strong export performance pushed the cumulative trade surplus for the first nine months close to $94 billion. High-tech products and automobiles continued to drive export growth, with year-on-year increases in export value reaching 63.6% and 53.2%, respectively, in September.

Notably, car exports in September reached 1.18 million units, up 56.3% year-on-year, with export value increasing 62%. New-energy passenger vehicle exports rose sharply by 163.5% year-on-year. This expansion is primarily driven by volume gains, underscoring the tangible global competitiveness of China’s new-energy vehicles. Car exports for the first three quarters have already surpassed 8.2 million units, with projections indicating annual exports may exceed 10 million units.

Additionally, exports to the United States grew 39.6% in September, pushing monthly trade surplus with the U.S. to $34 billion—the highest level in 20 months. The extension of the temporary de-escalation in Sino-U.S. trade tensions through January next year has provided a short-term boost to export momentum. However, uncertainty remains beyond that window. As of the third quarter, the cumulative trade surplus stood at $93.81 billion, approaching the $100 billion threshold. Such a substantial surplus is likely to provoke responses from trading partners—evidenced by the European Union’s ongoing efforts to strengthen trade defense mechanisms.

The most pressing issue lies in the divergence between weak domestic demand and robust external demand. Crude oil imports have declined for six consecutive months with double-digit drops, reflecting only modest recovery in physical domestic demand. If domestic consumption fails to rebound sustainably over the long term, the current “strong external, weak internal” pattern will eventually face constraints from finite global market capacity. Conversely, if domestic demand can be effectively stimulated in parallel, China’s economic outlook would improve significantly.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879037129360384/

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