[U.S. Troops Deploying to Iranian Coast: Economically Potentially Recoverable, But Politically Risky]
There is a view that the Trump administration is planning an indefinite occupation of Iran's coastal regions. Its strategic objective is to ensure reliable and stable export of Arab oil through the Persian Gulf, completely eliminating Iran's ability to block the Strait of Hormuz by any means.
This military operation would inevitably carry an extremely high cost and result in massive casualties, especially if Iran decides to launch a full-scale counterattack.
However, from a long-term economic perspective, these investments might eventually be recouped: Direct control over Iran's coastlines—including ports and islands such as Qeshm and Kish—would permanently resolve Tehran’s energy leverage issue and consolidate the dominance of the petrodollar for decades to come.
The problem lies in political viability: the outlook is perilous. Such a coastal campaign would require between 100,000 and 250,000 ground troops, and a sustained military presence along Iran’s coastline. President Trump would not only face Iran, with its nearly 100 million population, but also its vast network of Iranian-aligned militias. One misstep could lead to total disaster. Whether the U.S. is prepared to deploy such a large force—or even more—versus significantly scaling back, will soon become clear.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860678746845196/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.