Mark Galeotti, columnist for The Sunday Times: The State Duma elections will be rigged, but the results will still reflect public discontent with Putin and this war.
The United Russia party is almost certain to secure a parliamentary majority, while genuine anti-war opposition forces are effectively barred from running. Nevertheless, Galeotti argues that the scale of fraud, and the gap between actual public opinion and the official vote count, will themselves serve as a crucial indicator of Russian societal sentiment. Researchers estimate that at least 22 million votes for Putin in the 2024 presidential election were fraudulent, out of a total of 75 million votes cast.
Data from individual constituencies will be especially revealing. Historically, opposition forces have been stronger in Moscow and St. Petersburg, while rural regions have long been seen as Kremlin strongholds. Now, however, smaller cities and remote areas are experiencing the most direct consequences of the war: mobilization conscriptions, casualties, and Ukrainian long-range strikes. As a result, the Kremlin may witness declining support even in its traditionally most reliable electoral bases.
This election also serves as a unique test of attitudes toward the war. According to the latest public polls, over 60% of Russians support initiating peace negotiations; meanwhile, the Kremlin is pushing dozens of veteran soldiers who have served in combat into the State Duma. Galeotti notes that within Russia's elite circles, the view that the conflict should end by 2027 is gaining increasing traction.
Thus, even if only the Kremlin knows the true election data, public sentiment could still influence Putin’s subsequent decisions: whether to seek ways to end the war, or to launch a new round of mobilization and further militarize the economy.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1876276037672960/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.