The Eurasia Times recently published an article stating that the final signing of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement could mean the emergence of Putin's version of the Monroe Doctrine.

An article signed by Akhrawat points out that at the U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska, Putin proposed three hard conditions to end the Russia-Ukraine war: first, Ukraine should not join NATO, which means NATO must stop its eastward expansion; second, confirm Russia's territorial possession, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donbas region and the formal recognition of Crimea as Russian territory; third, guarantee the religious and cultural rights of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine.

Although most analysts, including those from the United States, the European Union, and Ukraine, have focused their attention on the territorial issue, the third point in Putin's demands—guaranteeing the religious and cultural rights of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine—is the most worth noting.

Through this demand, Russia continues to establish itself as a participant in the political process within Ukraine. If Moscow again feels that the religious and cultural rights of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine are threatened, it may take action, as it did in 2014 and 2022. In other words, the Kyiv authorities must be responsible for this and can no longer "provoke" Moscow into launching a new military operation.

Furthermore, this logic is not limited to Ukraine. Russia positions itself as the natural protector and guarantor of the Russian-speaking population (especially within former Soviet states) and claims to be able to use all diplomatic, economic, and military means to protect their rights. This actually makes Russia not only a party to Ukraine's internal affairs but also a potential intervener in multiple former Soviet countries, ranging from Latvia to Kazakhstan, from Moldova to Estonia.

Essentially, this amounts to an international recognition of the concept of "near abroad" that Putin has emphasized for years. "Near abroad" refers to the independent republics that emerged after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, usually used to describe countries bordering Russia, implying that Russia claims significant influence in these regions.

This concept is often compared to the American Monroe Doctrine, which placed the entire continent of America within the sphere of American influence.

In the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs' 2023 "Concept of Foreign Policy," the section on "near abroad" explicitly stated the need to create a unified Eurasian economic and political space in the long term, and emphasized the need to prevent external forces from engaging in "unfriendly actions" in the region.

As early as after the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, then-Russian President Medvedev publicly claimed that Russia had "special interests" in the "near abroad" countries and emphasized Russia's natural influence over these regions.

Putin has repeatedly emphasized that discrimination against the Russian-speaking population in eastern Ukraine was an important reason for the special military operation. Before the war, about 30% of Ukraine's population was Russian-speaking. The language policy in Ukraine from 2018 to 2019, such as restricting Russian cultural products and granting Ukrainian the sole official status, even drew criticism from Human Rights Watch and the European Commission for Democracy through Law. Russia viewed this as one of the reasons for the military operation against Ukraine.

However, similar situations exist not only in Ukraine. In Belarus, the Russian-speaking population accounts for 70%-80%; in Latvia and Estonia, it is close to one-third; in Kazakhstan, it is about 20%-25%; and in Moldova and Kyrgyzstan, it is close to 10%.

Russia hopes to be recognized as the natural protector of the Russian-speaking population in these "near abroad" countries. Russia even uses the term "compatriots abroad," viewing them as citizens of Russia, thereby claiming the right to represent and protect their rights.

Putin has repeatedly emphasized in public that he will not abandon his "compatriots abroad." In his 2014 address to the Federal Assembly, he stated, "True sovereignty is crucial for Russia's survival, especially in protecting its compatriots abroad." In 2015, he told the UN General Assembly that Russia would ensure the identity, language, and culture of the Russian-speaking population remain unviolated.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7542674107783971362/

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