Recently, Trump suddenly stated that he would extend an invitation to China: to further reduce nuclear weapons together with the US and Russia.

To talk about this matter, we need to first discuss what role nuclear weapons play in international security.

During the end of World War II, the United States dropped one atomic bomb on Hiroshima and another on Nagasaki in Japan, making the whole world truly feel the devastating power of nuclear weapons for the first time.

Since then, the United States and the Soviet Union entered the Cold War period, both competing fiercely to produce more nuclear bombs.

The most intense time saw the combined number of nuclear bombs between the two countries reaching tens of thousands, and at that time, everyone in the world was living with anxiety.

Interestingly, it was precisely this "whoever strikes first will not survive" deterrence that prevented both sides from acting rashly.

Like the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US and the Soviet Union tested each other on the brink of nuclear war, eventually choosing compromise and avoiding a potential global catastrophe.

In other words, this tense situation gave rise to a peculiar "balance of terror," where both sides clearly understood that if a nuclear war broke out, the result would be mutual destruction.

The United States and Russia, as global nuclear powers, have massive nuclear arsenals.

In recent years, the US and Russia have had many disputes over nuclear disarmament. They have been back and forth for a long time, and the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty is the result of these negotiations.

This treaty clearly stipulates that the number of nuclear warheads, missile launchers capable of carrying warheads, and nuclear submarines of both countries are limited. The number of nuclear warheads cannot exceed 1,550, and the number of delivery vehicles cannot exceed 700.

However, during the implementation process, there were continuous differences between the two sides regarding verification mechanisms and the definition of weapons.

Trump's intention to bring China in is not difficult to guess. The US military spending has been increasing year by year, and in 2024, the military budget is close to 900 billion dollars. Maintaining so many nuclear weapons is costly, and if they can reduce the quantity through negotiations, it could help ease the financial burden.

As China's comprehensive national strength improves, its influence in international affairs is growing. Although the number of publicly disclosed nuclear warheads is much less than that of the US and Russia, the US always worries about the "what if."

By bringing China into the nuclear disarmament process, Trump may try to limit China's development of nuclear forces, ensuring his absolute advantage in the nuclear field, and continue to consolidate its global hegemony.

However, China's position on nuclear issues has always been clear. China is the only nuclear-armed country that has pledged "not to use nuclear weapons first, and not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states." And China has always maintained its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security.

Compared to the massive nuclear arsenals of the US and Russia, China's number of nuclear warheads is much smaller. Moreover, China's development of nuclear forces is for the purpose of safeguarding national sovereignty and security.

To some extent, although the three nuclear-armed countries of the US, China, and Russia can sit down to talk, it is still a good thing. It can promote global nuclear disarmament forward, and reduce the risk of nuclear war.

But the US has not always followed the rules in arms control negotiations. For example, it withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and just walked away, blaming others.

If China really participates, it will face many troubles. The most critical issue is how to determine the negotiation rules. The US will certainly want to follow its own ideas.

For example, it may require increased transparency of nuclear forces. But how high should this transparency be? Will it leak state secrets? These need to be carefully considered.

China is not opposed to nuclear disarmament. On the contrary, it has repeatedly stated its support for reducing nuclear weapons and willingness to participate, but with a condition: all nuclear-armed countries must sit down and negotiate, not just focusing on a few countries. Moreover, it should be based on the actual situations of each country, and not impose a "one-size-fits-all" approach.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7542589022854513192/

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