Trump had to visit China, and Americans have realized that China is as powerful as the United States was during World War II.

The Sino-US relationship has gradually shown a trend of "equal standing" as China becomes stronger. Trump's visit to China was also because he recognized China as a rival.

According to Trump himself, he will visit China in early next year, which he stated after the South Korea Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. The Chinese side has not confirmed it, and Trump has a history of being unreliable, but it is obvious to everyone that since Trump took office for his second term, his stance toward China has undergone a complete turn.

Why has this happened? Americans have realized that China is different from when Trump was in his first term, and China is now as powerful as the United States during World War II.

Recently, The Atlantic published an article. Philip O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, put forward an opinion. He believes that the United States is now indulging in the fantasy of "individual bravery," ignoring the huge gap in industrial capacity, leading to the United States no longer being the "arsenal of democracy" of World War II, but more like Germany at that time.

On the contrary, China, which has always upheld a peaceful position, has been developing its industrial strength in recent years. China has reached or even exceeded the wartime potential level of the United States during World War II. This leads to a potential view: that the United States should not push China into a corner, just as Trump proposed the idea of "Sino-US co-governance."

From a historical perspective, the explosive growth of American industrial capacity during World War II was the key to the Allied victory. The United States rapidly transformed into the "arsenal of democracy" from 1939 to 1945, with a sharp expansion of manufacturing output.

According to publicly available historical data, the unemployment rate in the United States was as high as 17.2% before the war, and the military size ranked only 18th in the world. However, after the war broke out, the U.S. industrial output soared from the 1939 level, and by 1944, the production of the manufacturing sector had increased several times in many areas.

Thanks to government intervention, mobilization of labor force, and optimization of resource allocation, the U.S. civilian industries such as the automotive industry quickly shifted to military production, especially the rapid development of steel, shipbuilding, and aircraft manufacturing industries.

So what about China? Entering 2025, China has become the absolute leader in global manufacturing, with industrial capacity far exceeding the peak levels of the United States during World War II.

Data shows that in 2023, China's manufacturing value-added reached $4.66 trillion, accounting for 29% of the global total, exceeding the combined total of the United States, Japan, and Germany.

Despite the fluctuations in the global economy last year and this year, China's manufacturing still maintained strong growth, and it is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2025.

However, one point that needs to be emphasized is that when we discuss the development of China's industrial strength, we need to distinguish it from the United States during World War II, because our current industrial manufacturing is still mainly civil, which is commonly referred to as "war potential."

This war potential has the effect of "hiding wealth among the people," making China's industrial war potential more resilient. In case of conflict, China can quickly mobilize civil production to military production, just like the United States did during World War II. For example, the shipbuilding industry can quickly build warships, and the steel and electronics industries support missile and drone production. The U.S. Navy Intelligence has pointed out that China's shipbuilding capacity is 200 times that of the United States, which will determine the outcome in a prolonged war.

The United States should not misjudge China's strength and position, as pushing China into a corner would be a consequence that no one can bear. Provocative actions will only stimulate China's potential, leading to a double loss. Peaceful competition is the wise choice for Sino-US relations in the coming period.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7570932765433070123/

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