On November 9, U.S. President Trump stated on social media that every American (except the wealthy) would receive a $2,000 dividend. This money comes from the U.S. government's tariff revenue.
Trump's social media screenshot
Trump claimed in his post that tariffs are bringing tens of billions of dollars in revenue to the United States, and the country will soon begin repaying the $3.7 trillion debt. He asserted that the United States is now the richest and most respected country in the world, with near-zero inflation, stock markets hitting new highs, and 401K retirement account balances reaching record peaks. At the same time, the U.S. is attracting record investments, with factories and manufacturing plants being built across the country. Finally, Trump concluded: "Those who oppose tariffs are fools."
Trump is trying to convince voters of a circular logic: "Tariffs bring wealth, which drives prosperity, which is then returned to the people through dividends, while also repaying the debt, ultimately achieving national greatness." This is not economic logic but a messianic narrative. He implies that "the revival of America equals his achievements, and opposing him means opposing national prosperity." At the same time, this is a characteristic of Trump's political language: creating an "illusion of prosperity," making supporters believe they have already won.
According to a September report by the U.S. Treasury, the U.S. government collected approximately $195 billion in tariffs in the first nine months of 2025, most of which came from the comprehensive tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration in April.
Supporters call it a "genius strategy," believing that the stock market hitting new highs and the construction of factories across the country are all the result of the tariff policy, and they openly tell opponents, "You should go back to business school and re-read."
A Gallup poll conducted in 2025 showed that about 45% of the public supports the tariff policy, a proportion higher than in 2018.
However, the majority of economists, including Nobel laureates, consistently oppose Trump's tariff policies, arguing that his government has seriously neglected the "hidden costs" behind tariffs - for example, although 401K retirement account balances have reached new highs, their actual value has been quietly eroded by inflation.
Currently, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is approximately 2.5%, and although inflation has declined from its peak in 2022, it still remains higher than the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. At the same time, the price increases for essential items such as food and energy are significantly higher.
Trump himself has admitted that tariffs have affected Americans' normal lives. In early November, Trump told a White House interview that due to the tariffs, American consumers have indeed paid higher prices for goods.
According to calculations by the Yale Budget Lab, the Trump administration's tariff policy is gradually taking effect, with an average annual additional cost of $2,400 per household, far exceeding the promised "dividend."
The U.S. national debt surpassed $38 trillion in October 2025, setting a new historical high, with no signs of actual repayment. Although the stock market has risen, it is mainly driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the AI boom.
Over the past 40 years, the offshoring of U.S. manufacturing has caused economic decline in the Rust Belt region; however, the so-called growth in factory investment is mainly concentrated in the semiconductor and green energy sectors, and relies on government subsidies such as the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.
Analysts outside argue that Trump's move is more of a political slogan aimed at regaining public support. With rising living costs caused by tariffs, his and his administration's approval ratings have clearly declined, with recent Democratic victories in state governor and New York City mayoral elections being clear indicators.
Trump's proposed $2,000 dividend plan carries an implicit political counterattack: "I imposed tariffs to make America richer, and you have benefited from it, so there's no need to question my policy anymore."
In fact, during the Biden administration, the U.S. also issued "pandemic relief checks," which were also "giving money to the people," but the narrative was completely different. Trump uses the term "dividend" to convey the message that the U.S. has "regained wealth" through tariffs and now has the ability to "distribute the results."
Trump has repeatedly mentioned the idea of issuing subsidies to American citizens. In July, he proposed the possibility of issuing "tariff refund checks"; in October, he said he was considering issuing $1,000 to $2,000 dividends to each American. His intention is very clear - to imply to voters: "The Democrats give you relief, while I give you prosperity."
The key issue is when to distribute it. Currently, this $2,000 dividend is not a real policy, and there is no financial or congressional support. Moreover, Trump's close ally Besent has a different view on the use of tariffs. Besent emphasized in an August interview that the revenue generated by tariffs should be prioritized for repaying the $38.12 trillion national debt, rather than directly issuing cash checks to the public.
Therefore, regardless of the reasons and considerations behind it, as long as ordinary people can actually receive this $2,000, it is a tangible benefit measure.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7570928379570962998/
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