On September 9, protesters in Nepal gathered in front of the burning presidential palace. Source: The Caravan
The Caravan published an article on September 14 titled "India Cannot Ignore the Lessons from South Asia's Recent Turmoil," which argues that the frequent uprisings in South Asian countries stem from social vulnerability caused by political and economic difficulties, and the trend of similar crises in India is deepening. The author of this article, Sushant Singh, is a consultant editor at The Caravan magazine.
In recent years, there have been political upheavals in many South Asian countries: In 2022, Sri Lanka overthrew the Rajapaksa family's rule due to economic collapse; in 2024, student movements in Bangladesh forced Hasina to step down; in 2025, Nepal saw so-called "Generation Z" protests sparked by social media bans and corruption, evolving into nationwide movements. For India, the key question is whether it faces similar issues as these countries, and if so, can it avoid such events?
The countries experiencing turbulence in South Asia share three common characteristics: Economically, long-term unemployment among educated youth and accumulated hardship for the people. Politically, traditional parties and institutions have lost credibility. Socially, protests have broken through geographical and class boundaries through digital platforms, enabling leaderless, flat, and long-term resistance. Whether it is the family rule in Sri Lanka, the highly centralized system in Bangladesh, or the corruption problems in Nepal, they were ignited by the youth under conditions of lack of effective responses. Notably, the outbreak of these events was not driven by ideological orientation but by livelihood demands - the protesters do not aim to overthrow capitalism or establish a theocratic regime, their demands are improved employment, higher living standards, government improvement in governance efficiency, and having responsible leaders.
Compared to its neighbors, India also faces issues on three levels: Economically, first, the youth unemployment rate in India remains high. According to the Economic Monitoring Center report, 44.5% of Indians aged 20-24 are unemployed, a proportion much higher than in Bangladesh. Second, manufacturing and service sectors are affected by US tariffs and immigration restrictions, leading to accelerated outflow of foreign investment. Politically, dissent has emerged within India's ruling camp, with Modi's government being questioned by the RSS, and India's proud "democratic system" is losing credibility. Socially, the problem of population outflow in India is unprecedentedly severe, with over 600,000 people leaving India in 2024 alone, and the total number of immigrants reaching 18.5 million, almost three times that of 1990. Second, domestic governance issues such as ethnic violence in Manipur, tension in Kashmir, and continuous persecution of religious minorities are serious. Likewise, digital platforms amplify India's issues at all levels, intensifying the challenges faced by the Modi government. India has over 850 million internet users, providing the conditions for the outbreak and expansion of protests. The farmer movement from 2020 to 2021 has proven that digital tools can enable long-term protests across regions. Although India has previously used internet shutdowns to deal with protests, on one hand, this action affects the lives of millions of citizens, and on the other hand, it undermines the "Digital India" initiative. More importantly, this approach may temporarily suppress unrest, but long-term implementation only exacerbates public dissatisfaction.
Compared to smaller South Asian countries, India has certain unique advantages: First, India has a deep democratic tradition, and its constitutional foundation is more solid. Second, India's economic structure is diverse. Although the government has not yet achieved its manufacturing ambitions, it avoids over-reliance on a single industry, promoting economic growth and job creation. Third, global powers' investments in India may maintain stability during crises. However, these advantages could also become burdens for India under pressure: First, India's federal system has been systematically weakened during Modi's rule, possibly creating multiple points of pressure that make it harder for the central government to control. Second, the public has already lost trust in judicial independence, media freedom, and election fairness, making constitutional guarantees meaningless. Third, political polarization hinders social diversity and deepens social divisions. Fourth, the Modi government is blocking legal channels for complaints. In summary, India needs to pay attention to the lessons from the turmoil in other South Asian countries and prevent such events from happening.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7550713459441287720/
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