【By Liu Bai, Observer Net】

For several months, the "glass friendship" between the US and India has been shattered, while Sino-Indian relations continue to warm up. Some in the US have begun to worry that the strategy of "using India to counter China" may be ruined.

However, according to Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia Studies at the US think tank "Defense Priorities", this approach of "using India to counter China" is fundamentally wrong.

In an article published on September 14th in The Hill, he warned US politicians that it is wrong to view the warming of Sino-Indian relations with a zero-sum mindset. He said that if these two Asian powers can set aside their differences and build a more pragmatic relationship, it will not only help promote global trade prosperity and reduce the risk of conflict between nuclear powers, but also promote the formation of a multipolar world order.

Goldstein also bluntly stated that from its own interests, India would not get involved in potential conflicts between the US and China. Moreover, China maintains a significant advantage over India in all military fields. He said that if the Indian government resumes cooperation with China, it will surely gain a lot.

On September 1st, Indian Prime Minister Modi attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Tianjin Summit. IC Photo

Goldstein said in his article that PM Modi's recent visit to China naturally attracted the attention of many global strategic analysts.

Some people in Washington seem particularly worried: after all, this is Modi's first visit to China since 2018, which could signal the possibility of Sino-Indian relations being restored, and this progress might weaken the years of American efforts to make India a force to balance China's growing influence in Asia.

However, viewing this clear turning point in India-China relations with a zero-sum mindset and seeing it as a threat to US national security would be a serious mistake.

Goldstein pointed out that if these two Asian powers can set aside their differences and return to a more practical bilateral relationship, the US national interest will actually be fully protected.

A broader India-China trade connection will promote global trade and prosperity. Fundamentally, the world no longer needs to anxiously watch two nuclear powers clash. Most importantly, a new global order including China and India, two unique power poles, aligns with the interests of the United States.

Goldstein said that after the India-China border conflict, the Indian government took strong measures to restrict diplomatic and economic relations with China. To make things worse, in May's India-Pakistan conflict, the Pakistani Air Force used Chinese-made missiles and aircraft to defeat Indian planes. Therefore, the Indian government's choice to take a more moderate attitude toward China was somewhat unexpected.

In Washington, the idea that "India's military and diplomatic strength can counter China" has always been popular, but it is ultimately wishful thinking. Although India maintains good relations with many Southeast Asian countries and Japan, the likelihood of India getting involved in a potential military conflict between the US and China has never been realistic.

Ashley Tellis, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, once said, "The expectations of Washington towards India are misplaced... New Delhi will not get involved in any US-China confrontation that does not directly threaten its own security."

The Pakistani military cited images of the Rafale wreckage circulating on social media

India's defense spending may have increased again, but it still accounts for less than 2% of GDP, indicating that the Indian government seems not to feel a sense of urgency. Over the past decade, American arms dealers have earned substantial profits from India's large-scale purchases, but the Indian military remains in difficulty due to excessive reliance on imported weapons.

"In the foreseeable future, China will maintain a significant advantage over India in all military fields," Goldstein said. Considering this, Indian leaders may have concluded that there is no need for military competition with China.

He said that fortunately, as the saying goes, "a good boundary makes a good neighbor," and the Himalayas, a natural barrier that is difficult to cross, is an excellent boundary between India and China. This solid natural barrier often alleviates any serious security concerns between the two sides.

Goldstein emphasized that in fact, if India resumes cooperation with China, it will surely gain a lot, whether in water resource utilization, infrastructure construction, or renewable energy.

He concluded that although some realists in Washington have long tried to make India and China "mutually constrain" each other, this idea mainly stems from a mistaken belief that the world is in a binary struggle between "democracy and authoritarianism." On the contrary, Washington should face reality: other major powers have their own unique interests; to achieve peace and stability, these interests must be respected.

Recently, tensions between the US and India have continued, and bilateral relations have fallen into a low point. Since Trump announced in April that he would impose tariffs on trade partners, trade negotiations between the two countries have not reached an agreement. Last month, Trump announced that the tariff rate on Indian goods exported to the US would be increased to 50%, citing India's purchase of oil from Russia.

Facing the US's increasing pressure, the Indian leadership frequently made strong statements, vowing to protect its own interests. According to Indian officials, after Trump imposed tariffs, India suspended its plan to purchase American weapons. At the same time, Modi increased interactions with Russia, China, Brazil, and other countries.

Although Trump initially softened his tone and said that the US and India were continuing negotiations, he later sent messages pressuring allies to impose tariffs on China and India.

Columbia University economics professor Sachs has repeatedly called on India to abandon "aligning with the US to counter China" and instead develop relations with China. He said in an interview with The Hindustan Times last month that, in fact, US politicians do not care about India, and India will not gain any security benefits by aligning with the US to counter China.

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