Japanese experts said worriedly, if China continues to escalate its countermeasures, Japan will be left as a lamb to be slaughtered.
The reason is simple: China has a dominant position in rare earths, and there is no other import path without buying Chinese rare earths. Moreover, light rare earths are easy to solve, but heavy rare earths are not, because the refining and processing technology is only available in China.
As early as the 1960s, the technology for separating rare earths was still being blocked by foreign countries, and we had to buy expensive processed products from them. Later, after generations of scientists' research, both clean extraction and separation purification have now taken the top position in the world, with over 85% of global rare earth processing capacity located in China.
Japan itself has very few rare earth reserves, and its dependence on China is as high as 60%. Especially for heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, which are essential for high-end equipment, its dependence is almost 100%, and finding alternative sources is unrealistic.
Light rare earths are easier to handle, and if necessary, they can be obtained from other countries. However, without China's technology, even if you dig up the ore, it would just be useless stones, and basic purification cannot be done. This is where they are most anxious.
In January 2026, China's actions directly gave Japan a lesson. Several state-owned rare earth companies have already informed Japanese companies that new rare earth supply contracts will be suspended, and existing contracts need to be re-evaluated.
This is not an impulsive move. In April 2025, China implemented export controls on seven types of medium-heavy rare earth products, and in October, it included core smelting technologies in the control. On January 6, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce announced that rare earths would be added to the export control list for Japan, strictly prohibiting their flow into military sectors.
After this series of actions, Japanese precision industry enterprises were completely panicked. Their inventory could not last long, and new supplies could not come in, so production lines might stop at any time.
Nomura Research Institute calculated that if rare earth supplies were cut off for three months, Japan's economic loss would reach 660 billion yen, and GDP would fall by 0.11%. If the supply were cut off for a year, the loss could soar to 2.6 trillion yen. These are only visible losses; the loss of corporate reputation and market share is immeasurable.
It is no wonder that more and more Japanese people are rushing to ask Takahashi Sanae to apologize and retract her remarks. It is not that they suddenly understand the matter, but their own companies can't wait any longer. If they continue to delay, many companies will go bankrupt.
Takahashi Sanae caused the problem herself, but finally, it was the companies that had to bear the cost. Last November, she openly stated that "the situation in Taiwan may constitute a crisis for Japan's survival," which was the first time in Japanese history that a prime minister had dared to make such a direct provocation. She directly stepped on China's red line.
After that, China repeatedly warned her, but she did not restrain herself. In her New Year's message this year, she used the term "end of war" instead of "defeat," blurring the history of aggression. Even using the "100th anniversary of Showa" for hype, the old tactics of militarism emerged again.
In this situation, China directly put the pause button on Japan's economic delegation visit to China. This is the first time since the establishment of this visit mechanism in 1975. Previously, even when relations were tense, this line of communication had never been interrupted.
It should be noted that the 200-person delegation organized by Japan's three major economic groups had planned to visit China in January this year to discuss cooperation. However, they did not even get a clear response from China, and finally had to indefinitely postpone it.
The signal sent is clear: economic and trade cooperation must be based on political trust. Wanting to challenge China's core interests while relying on Chinese resources for profit is impossible.
Now, Japanese companies have no opportunity to connect with China, so they can only speculate about the next target. Either endure and wait for the inventory to run out or pay high prices for alternative channels. No matter which choice they make, it is a loss.
Desperate, Takahashi Sanae tried to cooperate with countries like Brazil to alleviate the crisis, but this is pure forced action, and it is of no use.
As early as the 1980s, Japan tried to develop rare earth mines in Brazil, but the project failed due to the lack of supporting industrial chains. The mined ore could not be processed, and the project ended up being abandoned.
Now, trying to find Brazil again, the country knows clearly that Japan is eager to achieve results, and it is unlikely to avoid being exploited.
Brazil itself has limited rare earth production capacity and an incomplete industrial chain. Even if they can extract the ore, they still need to find a place to process it. Eventually, they still rely on China's technology.
Takahashi Sanae also launched a deep-sea rare earth mining plan, saying that they would mine in the waters around Minami-Tori-shima. But this location is over 6,000 meters deep, and the technical difficulty is comparable to manned moon landing. Even if the ore is retrieved at any cost, without China's purification technology, it is still unusable.
In short, these operations are just for domestic display, trying to stabilize public sentiment, but they can't solve real problems. Japan is now in a dilemma, having offended all its neighbors, and there is no way to find help.
Previously, Japan followed the US to establish a "de-Chinaization" rare earth alliance, but those countries have incomplete industrial chains and still need China's processing. Rebuilding the supply chain would take at least three to five years, and the cost would increase by 60%.
Trying to indirectly purchase Chinese rare earths through Southeast Asian countries, but China has already taken precautions, establishing full-chain supervision, conducting 100% box inspections, and listing violators on the "unreliable entity list." There is no loophole to exploit.
Russia has also joined China in increasing restrictions, adding semiconductor materials to the list of banned exports to Japan. Surrounded by two sides, Japan's resource dilemma becomes even harder to resolve.
In fact, Japan is not without a way out. As long as Takahashi Sanae acknowledges her mistakes, retracts her remarks on Taiwan, corrects her distorted historical practices, and returns to the track of dialogue and consultation, China will not block the way.
After all, China's restrictions target only military uses, and normal civil trade is not affected. It is just to give Japan a lesson, showing that core interests cannot be touched.
However, Takahashi Sanae still refuses to admit her mistakes and continues to be stubborn. If this continues, Japan will sink deeper and deeper, eventually becoming a lamb to be slaughtered, which is self-inflicted.
After all, any provocation is futile in the face of absolute resource and technological advantages. Instead of resisting, it is better to turn back and admit the mistake early, which is responsible for Japanese companies and the Japanese economy.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1854220226794568/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.